A shotgun can't miss!

[GLC]

I know that I've brought this subject up in the past, but here we go again.

Let's say you want to give your son a piece of candy.  But, you want to play a little game with him.  You have six pockets.  You're wearing overalls so you have 2 back pockets, 2 front pockets, 1 pocket on the side of the leg and one shirt pocket.  You tell your son that he has two options.  One, he can have 1 piece of candy if he wants to check every pocket until he finds the one with the candy in it.  Or, two, you will put 2 pieces of candy in one of the pockets and he has to pick the right pocket or he gets nothing.  Which method would you choose? 

I'm saying that if each time you miss, he puts the candy in another pocket, it's possible to never pick the right pocket.  But if you get to check each pocket, you're sure to find the piece of candy sooner or later.

Or it's like an Easter egg hunt.  You mom has 5 Easter eggs made of solid chocolate.  Your backyard is half an acre.  She tells you that you have two choices.  One, she will put one egg somewhere in the yard and you can hunt until you find it.  Or, she will put each of the 5 eggs in different places and you have to toss a ball to 5 locations and if you are within 5 feet of an egg, you get it plus one other egg.  Which method would you choose?

Let's say you are going to bet that you can't pick a group of 5 spins at random that will be an exact sequence.  It can be either 5 Reds or 5 Blacks or RRBRB or BRRRB or whatever.  So I say, starting on the 3rd spin from now, I'm going to bet that the 4th thru the 9th spins won't be RBBRB.  I'll have to use a martingale for this to be effective.  So, on the 4th spin I bet 1 unit on B; if I lose, on the 5th spin I bet 2 units on R; if I lose, on the 6th spin I bet 4 units on R; then 8 units on B and finally 16 units on R. 

I'm saying that you could possibly never pick a 5 spin sequence doing it this way.  Whereas, if you start betting against that 5 spin sequence continuously, you will find it every time it happens.

So, what if we pick 5 numbers that are at least 7 spins apart.  Let's say we pick #3, 12, 21, 30 & 38.  We walk up to the table and on the 3rd spin we start betting that we won't have 5 Reds spin in the next 5 spins.  Then we wait until spin 12 and repeat, then spin 21, 30 and finally spin 38.  The odds are that we will walk out with 5 units.  But if we start betting on spin 1 and bet every spin against 5 Reds in a row, if there are 5 Reds in a row, we will find it.

Now, we could create a bet selection method based on this idea.  Let's say that we are going to use a simple D'Alembert progression and we are going to bet against 2 Reds showing in a row at certain pre-determined spins.  So pick 1,4,9,13,16,20, etc.  We bet for Black at each one of those locations.  If the 1st one is a Red, we then bet the 2nd one for Black also.  If the 1st one is a Black, we don't bet the second one. 

Is this a reasonable bet selection method?

Could you use it with dozens or lines or streets etc...?

Any thoughts?

GLC

[Kingspin]

A shot gun can miss if the user is bli nd

[TwoCatSam]

George, you got me puzzled.........

You said:  So, what if we pick 5 numbers that are at least 7 spins apart.  Let's say we pick #3, 12, 21, 30 & 38.

I don't get that at all.  What's 38?

Are you meaning numbers in the trot, such as 1,2,3...................38?

When I understand that much, I'll dig deeper.

Sam

[TwoCatSam]

Are you saying this:

3rd spin............bet BBBBB
12th spin...........bet BBBBB
21st spin.........Bet BBBBB

OR

3rd spin............bet B
12th spin...........bet B
21st spin.........Bet B



Sam

[Chrisbis]

could the 38 refer to the two zeros that the Americans have to contend with? 0 & 00

[TwoCatSam]

Chris

I'm an American and 00 is 37.

Sam

[GLC]

George, you got me puzzled.........

You said:  So, what if we pick 5 numbers that are at least 7 spins apart.  Let's say we pick #3, 12, 21, 30 & 38.

I don't get that at all.  What's 38?

Are you meaning numbers in the trot, such as 1,2,3...................38?

When I understand that much, I'll dig deeper.

Sam

My mistake.  The 38 should have been 36.  Although Chris is right.  When I'm including 0 and 00 in my numbers I rename them 37 and 38 sometimes.

Really what I was trying to say is if we select a series of 5 or 6 or 7 or even 8 spins and start betting for them at a predetermined point, it will be hard to pick them. 

Let's say we pick 6 Reds starting on the 3rd spin after we get to the table.  We are betting a martingale because any B gives us a win and we want to be ahead after any win.  It will be very rare to have 6 Reds spin starting on the 3rd spin after we get to a table.  Not impossible, but very rare.
So, we would bet for Black for those 6 spins and if we get 1 Black within the spins, we win.

We can expand this to any bet location.  Dozens, lines, streets, double dozens, 5 lines etc...  Let's say we're going to bet that the next 4 spins after walking up to the table will not be 4 1st dozen spins.  So, we bet dozens 2 & 3 for 4 spins using a standard double dozen martingale progression.  As long as the 1st dozen doesn't spin 4 times in a row, we will win.

We know that if we always bet the 2 & 3 dozens, eventually we will have a run of four 1st dozens and everytime there is one, we will lose to it.

That's all I'm saying.  I didin't mean to bet straight up numbers.