5k Roulette Target

[Le_Chiffre]

ok, so some of you will remember that I'm trying to make 5k profit from a 20k bankroll over the space of a month or so.  I've gathered about 6 systems and am using them back to back.  I have made 250 units today and plan to make that amount until my target is met.

[Smoczoor]

Good Luck!

[Le_Chiffre]

thanks smoczoor

[stringbeanpc]

which 6 systems are you using ?

[marvin]

i assume that you will have 25K by then.
5K is about 25% of your 20K bank, i think that would be fairly achievable depending on you how many units per chip your are playing.
due to some loses.

good luck!


just my 2 cents

[GLC]

Here's some math you might find interesting.  It's the win formula for even chances.


W = (L + ?) / ?
1
A flat bet would be W = (L + 1) / 1.  Let's say we lose 10 times.  How many times would we have to win to be at +1.  W = (10 + 1) /1 or W = 11/1 or W = 11.


What if we decided to bet 2 previous losses each time thus eliminating 2 losses with 1 bet.


W = (L +2) / 2.  Now let's see how many wins we would need.


W = 12/2=6.  So we only need 6 wins to offset 10 losses.  That's 37.5% wins vs 62.5% losses.


This formula represents the cancellation or labby bet progression.


What if we decided to try to recover 3 losses with 1 win?


W = ( L +3) / 3.


W = ( 10 + 3) / 3.  W = 13/3.  W = 4.3  So we only need 4 wins to recover 10 losses.  (We can round down since we can't bet less than a whole number.) 


That's 28.5% wins vs 81.5% losses.  This comes up pretty rarely when playing even chances.  But it still comes up.


Now for 4 losses recovered by 1 win.  W = 14/4  W =  3.  Or, about 22% wins vs losses.


What this means is that if we feel we have a bet selection that guards against long series of losses, and we have a cannon for a bank roll instead of a pellet, this last formula would be almost a guaranteed winning progression.  About all we'd have to worry about would be the table maximum bet.


But even that can be dealt with by dividing our losses in half and playing each line separately.  As a matter of fact, we could set an amount, say when our next bet is over 400 units and at that time, we divide our losses in half.  This can be done as many times as necessary until we reach a winning streak that's good enough to clear out all our lines.  At 4 losses for each win, that shouldn't be too long in coming.


Just some thoughts on aggressive progressions for those who might like to think about ways to incorporate them into their playing style.


Remember, even with 25K bankroll, you still need to abide by the rule of don't risk money you can't afford to lose.  Just a word of caution, my friend.  Of course, I realize that anyone who has 25K bankroll will know enough about money management to not violate this rule.  But all of us need to be reminded every now and then.  Especially after reading something like the above.


GLC

[Le_Chiffre]

thanks ALL for the comments.

@GLC, what approach would you recommend for your said '1 win to recoup 4 losses'? A labby and each time it gets to 4 numbers in the string add them together to make 1 number and continue?

I'm playing at paddypower live casino mainly on EC and columns.  E.C limits min 2 max 5k....and columns limits min 2 max 3,600 so plenty of room with labbys as long as the starting amount or string isn't too high.  I've been playing a labby line of 3 3 3 1, mainly on 2 columns (betting against the last column to show).

[GLC]

If I had the b*lls to play it, I'd consider something like this.  Bet the sum of the 4 lowest unit losses.  Of course this will be the 4 leftmost numbers in the line.


Start with no line at all.
Bet 1 and lose.  Line = 1
Bet 1 and lose.  Line = 1 1
Bet 2 and lose.  Line = 1 1 2
Bet 4 and lose.  Line = 1 1 2 4
Bet 8 and lose.  Line = 1 1 2 4 8
Bet 8 and lose.  Line = 1 1 2 4 8 8
Bet 8 and lose.  Line = 1 1 2 4 8 8 8
Bet 8 and win.   Line = 1 1 2 4 8 8 8
Bet 24 and lose.  Line = 8 8 8 24
Bet 48 and lose.  Line = 8 8 8 24 48
Bet 48 and lose.  Line = 8 8 8 24 48 48
Bet 48 and win.   Line = 8 8 8 24 48 48
Bet 96 and lose.  Line = 48 48 96
Bet 192 and win. Line = 48 48 96


This is an example of 11 losses and 3 wins.


You can use a line per labby:


L     Line = 1
L     Line = 1 1
L     Line = 1 1 2
L     Line = 1 1 2 4
L     Line = 1 1 2 4 8  Next we bet 1-1-4-8.  1st 2 and last 2 of line.
L     Line = 1 1 2 4 8 14
L     Line = 1 1 2 4 8 14 24
W   Line = 1 1 2 4 8 14 24
L    Line = 2 4 8 14
L    Line = 2 4 8 14 28
L    Line = 2 4 8 14 28 48
W   Line = 2 4 8 14 28 48
L    Line = 8 14 22
W   Line = 8 14 22

Another way to play it is to bet every other number.  Let's say we have this line:


2 4 8 12 16 20 28 48 60 68  We could bet this:


2 4 8 12 16 20 28 48 60 68

That would be a bet of 110 units instead of a bet of 134 units.


This helps moderate the size of the bets but it still only takes 1 win out of 5 to break even.


If you want to win something when the line is cleared, you have to start with some units so that when the line is cleared, you're up however many units you wrote down that weren't lost.


The way I showed you is the way to keep the bet sizes to the minimum.  If you always clear and have enough bank and never reach the house limit, then there's no reason to be so conservative.  You could start with something like 3 3 and when the line is finally cleared, you would win 6 units instead of break even.


Do some testing and see if this idea is something you want to take a shot at.  As you can see, the bet sizes grow at an alarming rate.  Not for the faint hearted nor those with a small bank.


GLC

[TwoCatSam]

"As you can see, the bet sizes grow at an alarming rate.  Not for the faint hearted nor those with a small bank."

Amen!

Also, be aware that as your bet rises, so does your level of anxiety.  (Unless you're Mr. Spock and have no emotion.)  When anxiety reaches a certain level, the brain can play tricks on you.

Well, mine does anyway!  Maybe I'm the exception.

GLC

I like that first one!  Thanks!

Sam

[GLC]

Here's some math you might find interesting.  It's the win formula for even chances.


W = (L + ?) / ?
1
A flat bet would be W = (L + 1) / 1.  Let's say we lose 10 times.  How many times would we have to win to be at +1.  W = (10 + 1) /1 or W = 11/1 or W = 11.


What if we decided to bet 2 previous losses each time thus eliminating 2 losses with 1 bet.


W = (L +2) / 2.  Now let's see how many wins we would need.


W = 12/2=6.  So we only need 6 wins to offset 10 losses.  That's 37.5% wins vs 62.5% losses.


This formula represents the cancellation or labby bet progression.


What if we decided to try to recover 3 losses with 1 win?


W = ( L +3) / 3.


W = ( 10 + 3) / 3.  W = 13/3.  W = 4.3  So we only need 4 wins to recover 10 losses.  (We can round down since we can't bet less than a whole number.) 


That's 28.5% wins vs 81.5% losses.  This comes up pretty rarely when playing even chances.  But it still comes up.  The math's a little weak here.  It should be 71.5% losses.  Sorry.


Now for 4 losses recovered by 1 win.  W = 14/4  W =  3.  Or, about 22% wins vs losses.


What this means is that if we feel we have a bet selection that guards against long series of losses, and we have a cannon for a bankroll instead of a pellet, this last formula would be almost a guaranteed winning progression.  About all we'd have to worry about would be the table maximum bet.


But even that can be dealt with by dividing our losses in half and playing each line separately.  As a matter of fact, we could set an amount, say when our next bet is over 400 units and at that time, we divide our losses in half.  This can be done as many times as necessary until we reach a winning streak that's good enough to clear out all our lines.  At 4 losses for each win, that shouldn't be too long in coming.


Just some thoughts on aggressive progressions for those who might like to think about ways to incorporate them into their playing style.


Remember, even with 25K bankroll, you still need to abide by the rule of don't risk money you can't afford to lose.  Just a word of caution, my friend.  Of course, I realize that anyone who has 25K bankroll will know enough about money management to not violate this rule.  But all of us need to be reminded every now and then.  Especially after reading something like the above.


GLC

[Le_Chiffre]

@GLC, thanks for the long reply with your suggestions.  I will test them tomorrow and then give them a shot live.  I have already tested the one I thought you meant earlier which is starting a labby line when losses occur and once there are 4 numbers on the line, add them together and continue.  I've tried this on 2 columns again betting against the last column as i think this is the best way to play roulette with a labby and it seems to be VERY effective....although it can take a long time to make any substantial money (but profit is profit hey?..)

@Sam yes as the stakes increase so does the anxiety and stress but i think that's the only way to play labbys...they need good bankroll and most of all b**ls.

I have made my 250 units today which is good, max drawdown has been been just under 2k (my blood pressure was high at that point as you can imagine).

[Le_Chiffre]

@GLC, sorry, i see that your 1st suggestion is the same one as i though it was.  thanks for the suggestion.  I'll give it a go on double columns.

[GLC]

link:://targetbetting.blogspot.com/


The above is an interesting read.  I was considering the effectiveness of applying it to bets like double dozens, 5 lines, 11 streets.
For double dozens it would go something like this.  Betting 1-1 on the 2 dozens of your pick.


L  -2 (1-1)
L  -2 (1-1)
W +1 (1-1)  We're now down 3 units so we bet 4-4 on our next bet.  4-4 because we want to make 1 unit profit on a double win.
L -8  +  -3  =  -11 to this point.
L -2
L -2
W +1  So, -11 -2 -2 +1 = -11-3=-14  Next bet = 14-14 plus 1-1 for profit = 15-15
W +1.  We are now at +1 unit overall.


What if we had a really bad streak.


LLWLLWLWLLWLWLWW


L  -2      -2
L  -2      -4
W +1     -3   (4-4) next bet
L  -8      -11
L  -2      -13
W +1     -12  (13-13) next bet
L  -26     -38
W +1     -37  (38-38) next bet
L  -76     -113
L  -2       -115
W +1      -114   (115-115) next bet
L  -230    -322
W +1      -321  (322-322) next bet
L   -644   -965
W +1      -964  (965-965) next bet
W  +965 -964 = +1 profit


Pretty crazy, but remember, with a big bank, playing on BV no zero roulette (playing on a single zero wheel would add some more excitement), how often do you go 14 spins without a double win?  I don't know what the minimum on their no zero wheel is, probably too high to play this method.


Bet selection would be king.  It always is.


GLC

[GLC]

Le_C,


Please don't misunderstand my last few posts.  I'm not in any way suggesting that this is the way I would play if I were trying to make 250 units per day with a 25K bank.


I would have to think about that for a while since there are many good systems on this forum that can be played effectively.  It depends on how much time you're willing to play for each day.  Is it at a brick and mortar casino or is it on-line?  A lot of factors come into play here.  I'm not even sure I would play roulette if I were trying to win 250 units per day with a 25K bank.


The Star system designed for Blackjack might be interesting to look at.  You can search for it on this forum.  It has been discussed a few times and some interesting tweaks have been suggested to make it better.


GLC

[Le_Chiffre]

GLC,

Thanks for your replies once again.

I have most of my days free.  It takes 1-2 hours of play to make the 250 units so there's many more hours in the day that i could be playing and working towards my target a lot quicker, maybe even in a few days days but of course the more I play the more the chance of it all going wrong is greatly increased hence why i've set my target....but it does feel like there's a lot of wasted time....

I'm not too bothered which game allows me to make the target.  I've played all the major casino games and done ok on all but what I find with blackjack is that it's far more likely to lose 5 times in a row than win 5 times in a row.  However it seems to me that winning 5 times in a row on roulette double columns is more likely than losing 5 times in a row...

But I'll look into the star system for blackjack