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Tested a method on EC.

Started by Ralph, Apr 18, 10:18 AM 2013

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Ralph

At NOZ we have better chance on EC or all grinding play.

The longest which we can expect to lose is about 25 times in a row. The largest expected unbalance in hit, no hit is 1/3 to 2/3.
If we follow the last, we can maybe avoid some extreme unbalances.

So if we can get a progression lasting more than 25 loss in a row, and a very rare unbalance, we could win or??
I do not think we can, but we can delay a bust very long, and may be end up winning. If we lose the loss will be heavy.

A long progression which recover within the first hit is not possible, no casino have such table limit, and the risking bankroll would be too large.
A stretch Martingale can take a lot of losses, if we somewhere on the line got three hits in a row, or we parlay and go for two hits.

1,1,1,2,2,2,4,4,4,8,8,8,16,16,16,32,32,32,64,64,64,128,128,128,256,256,256,512,512,512.

To make the loss which may come before the bankroll is double, and be able to stand the kick in the back, we have to use lower stakes
as 0.1, making the risking money a few hundred Euros.

I have done some play, I put 300 Euro at risk and have been up in the progression to 64 units at most.
The net is half the risk money for the moment, so still I can lose half.

The win rate is not too slow, and 0.1 adds up.

Please try only if you are prepared it will  lose!

Simulations here is of no use, it will lose if we try until it does.
The best way to fail, is not to try!

probasah

Quote from: Ralph on Apr 18, 10:18 AM 2013
At NOZ we have better chance on EC or all grinding play.

The longest which we can expect to lose is about 25 times in a row. The largest expected unbalance in hit, no hit is 1/3 to 2/3.
If we follow the last, we can maybe avoid some extreme unbalances.

So if we can get a progression lasting more than 25 loss in a row, and a very rare unbalance, we could win or??
I do not think we can, but we can delay a bust very long, and may be end up winning. If we lose the loss will be heavy.

A long progression which recover within the first hit is not possible, no casino have such table limit, and the risking bankroll would be too large.
A stretch Martingale can take a lot of losses, if we somewhere on the line got three hits in a row, or we parlay and go for two hits.

1,1,1,2,2,2,4,4,4,8,8,8,16,16,16,32,32,32,64,64,64,128,128,128,256,256,256,512,512,512.

To make the loss which may come before the bankroll is double, and be able to stand the kick in the back, we have to use lower stakes
as 0.1, making the risking money a few hundred Euros.

I have done some play, I put 300 Euro at risk and have been up in the progression to 64 units at most.
The net is half the risk money for the moment, so still I can lose half.

The win rate is not too slow, and 0.1 adds up.

Please try only if you are prepared it will  lose!

Simulations here is of no use, it will lose if we try until it does.

Hi Ralph!

In the end, after testing a ton of methods, do you agree that the only way to win on a medium term is Martingale (variations etc)?

1 2 4 8 etc

Of course you lose in the long term, but if you are lucky?

Ralph

If we want to win big and fast, it involves risks, but on the other hand grinding make us just play longer.
We can do funny things cheap, with higher odds, like a street parlay from time to time 10Euro can if we are lucky and dare to do the parlay
1440. After such a hit, play with pennies until we used the winnings for something better than lose it back.

A friend of mine, likes to play, but want to save some money as well. He put all winnings in a saving account, and takes the bankroll from his salary, play for about 200 Euro/month. In ten years time he has "won" a small fortune.

In the long run he pays 1.3% for playing and get some bank intersest on the savings.
The best way to fail, is not to try!

Ralph

Took some time, but I got to 300 plus.

Then I though I should test it on COLS, six spin each martingale step and a parlay. I went to Zero Wheel and used only 0.01.
This went well, better grow of wins. If we use COL with six step, it is about the same chances as three with EC. The difference is if we got an early hit on doz, the winning will be better.

Later on I shift to DS using 12 spins a level, there I came up to 256 unit level and use 24 runs a step. Went OK some early hits. We talk about 144 times the bet after parlay.

I went up to about 668 Euro plus.

At last trying corners with 18 spins a step. Got a few good hits, but the last was terrible. Starting getting many zeros, some hit but the parlay would never hit.

I went on and suddenly I reach the limit for corners which is 200 Euro. It we take the winnings before in account I was down  about 300 Euro (starting a prog using 1 cent  :P).  Zero eats in long sessions and I got many. Got hits but no double.

So I stood with a bust, could not bet more.

I got a feeling the hit is "due" so I decide to do max two trials with extreme bets. I had some winnings from previous days.
I put 200 on the corner and  100 on each 4 numbers .  The first trial hit.

We see all kinds of  progressions will come in dangerous runs, sometimes faster than we think. I could stop taking a loss earlier.
I could  stayed at NOZ. But we never know could, should, would does not count, it what we do which counts.

It is not sure we are better of using longer play, a bold bet can do it too, but we like to play and hesitate very often to put it on one go.

The best way to fail, is not to try!

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