Colby's Dozen Grind

[Colbster]

Bet selection is any you choose for a single dozen.  For this example, I am taking the hot dozen as defined as whichever most recently hit 2 out of 3 spins.

Sets come in groups of 3 spins with a 1-1-2 proportion

Bet 1-1-2 until a loss of all 3 bets.  Any win will be a profit this far.

After your first loss, you are -4 units.  Increase the drawdown by 1 and divide by 4.  In the first loss, it will always be 4+1 (5), divided by 4 (1.25) and rounded up to 2. 

Each next level of the progressions will be 2 sets of 3.  In this case, it would be 2-2-4, 2-2-4.  We are expecting a single win in each set of 3 (normal distribution).  As soon as you get a win, that set of 3 is over and you move to the next set.  If you win the first or third bet in each set of 3, you are at a new high and return to 1-1-2 betting.  If you lose either or both, or just win the second bet of any 3, you still have a drawdown from the session high.  Whatever the current drawdown is, you increase again by 1, divide by 4 and round up.

In this example, if we get a L and then a W in the first set of 3, we move to the next 2-2-4 that is the second set of 3.  If we lose all 3 of the second set, we are down the original 4 + 2 units won in the first set - 8 units lost in the second set, netting us a drawdown currently of -10.  We would then add 1 (11), divide by 4 (2.75), and round up to 3.  This would set us up for the next round of 3-3-6, 3-3-6.

We continue this pattern until we get 2 wins that take us to a new session high where we return to 1-1-2 betting.

[Colbster]

Another session - Very comparable (in a good way) to the first!

[Colbster]

Round 3 

[Colbster]

Round 4 

[Colbster]

Extended session 5 

[Nathanael]

Shut the front door!

What does it take to get some interest around here??

This looks like a pretty darn solid method.

Nice one Colbster.

Nate

[Nathanael]

One more comment on this system.

It is really a three step martingale for the dozens.  The repeat of the 3 bet cycle at levels 2 and up give it some staying power.  The adding a unit and dividing by 4 is a unique twist.

You could even add more repeat cycles if the bet sizes start getting too large.  Or, you could divide by a larger number than 4.  This would slow down the bet size increases.  It would also limit the recovery strength.

Also, this can be played on other bet locations.  The added amount and divisor would have to be worked out but like George has said, if it works on any bet location it should work on any/all bet locations.

Nate

[Colbster]

You are totally right about dividing by a higher number than 4 to act as a safety brake if it goes squirrely but I haven't reached that point yet. I think my biggest drawdown has been 36 so far. The bet selection is decent as it avoids sleepers automatically. It is proving robust to me. I don't see a lot of lost sessions coming from this.

[Colbster]

For the next session, rather than playing BV NZ, I ventured out onto a European board at one of the various BitCoin casinos I saw mentioned on another forum just to see how it held up.

Total spins: 96
Total bets: 91
Ending balance: +50 units
Lowest balance: -6 units
Biggest drawdown: 26 units
Highest bet made: 10 (for 1 spin)

Net profit per spin: +0.55 units per spin

[Buffster]

Colbster

Well, I don't say this too often, but, HG comes to mind on this method.

Thanks 

B

[Colbster]

Nope.

At least with this bet selection, it appears to have an Achilles heel like all others.  I just complete a session that had a rotten drawdown that I tested long enough for it to have wiped out all the wins from all my previous sessions.  I think this has some merit but I now have to include the usual caveats of Stop Loss and adequate money management.  The damaging series I was getting was along the lines of 3-1-3-1-2-2-1-3-1-3-2-2.  The chops weren't getting the wins and then the pairs of 2s had nothing to back them up.  I like the progression aspect of this but the bet selection is flawed like all the others. 

[Colbster]

We could cut out the danger of chops by extending the criteria to 3 of 5 or whatever but that would just be curve fitting and would have us missing key profit opportunities that the 3-spin qualifiers identify.  Glad I kept it in the Notepad.  I was really feeling this one and was about to move it to the main board. 

[Colbster]

The answer was right there and I missed it.  Nathanael had the key.  Also, I named this a grind but hadn't fully embraced the concept.  Grinds can take some time and I wasn't giving this thing the time it needed to recover.

After the 1-1-2 loss initially, we add 1, divide by 4 and round up.  Then we play 2-2-4-2-2-4.

If this doesn't take us to a new high (or at least equal to the previous high), add 2, divide by 5 and round up.  Lets say we were down 11 at this point.  Our new base would be 3 but we play 3 sets at this level 3-3-6-3-3-6-3-3-6.

If we still don't make a high, add 3, divide by 6 and round up.  Now spread it out for 4 trios, continuing to use the 1-1-2 ratio with the 1 being whatever our base bet this round is.

In the first 2-2-4-2-2-4, we only make a new high if we get both hits in either the first of three or third of three.  In the second 3-3-6-3-3-6-3-3-6, we can afford to have one in the middle spin of a trio and still reach the new high.

As we continue increasing our add number by 1, our divide number by one, and our number of trios, our hits don't have to be as frequent to end up winning.  For instance, when we are dividing by 6 and playing 4 trios, we only need 3 hits out of 12 spins (and only 1 in the first 6) to make a profit. 

We are keeping the bet amounts smaller by using an increasingly high divisor and giving ourselves longer for random to come back our way.

[Colbster]

Here is another session using the suggested changes from the previous post.  It doesn't seem to really interrupt the strengths we previously saw but does flatten out the risk.  Despite a pretty atrocious beginning, this thing recovered and I only bet a maximum of 8 units for a single spin.

Spins: 153
Bets: 150
Ending balance: 48 (off a high of 51 just because I ended the session after the 150 spins)
Profit per spin 0.33 units

Max drawdown: 20 (twice)
Lowest balance: -20

[Buffster]

Colbster

Like I said ... HG comes to mind ... now more than ever.


B