COMMON SENSE BETTING + PROFESSIONAL ROULETTE STUDIES

[XXVV]

Thanks for your comments.


Actually in my latest testing - and I must emphasise you need massive samples  in order to make sensible judgment on findings- I have found remarkable results and all in flat staking but just knowing when to stop especially, ie when in suitable profit.


But dont stop too soon as the streaks of wins can be quite lengthy - more so than my first sample of 100 outcomes indicated.


As earlier mentioned there are some key tricks as to when to start also and application of these makes a big difference to your net results.


A simple moving average method works wonders when suitably applied.


Best


XXVV

[XXVV]

The more I have studied this little bet the more astonished I have become although I may have just tapped into a cycle within a grand cycle that is unusually beneficent.


What puzzles me is that with 37 variables the repeat phenomenon is averaging about 7+ I believe.


This makes it impossible to trap this within table limits, and certainly impossible flat staking when you seek a single repeat.


With finales there are only 10 variables and the repeat average varies with the Ecart of course (as above also) but because the variables are so small in number then the repeats can be trapped.


Food for thought
XXVV

[Wally Gator]

I've always enjoyed playing the finales, but know that it is very common to have more than 6 of those 10 to show before repeating, for those playing finales by adding a new finale with each new spin.

[XXVV]

I have done massive studies on this.
I will PM you.
It is not as it might seem.
XXVV

[Wally Gator]

Look forward to hearing from you.

[soggett]

Could you PM me too, I'm very interested in this

Or just post it here so everyone can see?

Thanks

[XXVV]

Hello S.


I contacted WG because he has posted on my threads many times, and I like his attitude.


You have asked to find out more about the finales bet ideas. Contact me offline/ email and let me know your level of interest in this work.


I am not prepared to  provide full details as this is a 'framework and ideas' section.


However am happy to assist within reason. I will provide some more general comment when I have time.

[XXVV]

In playing the Finales family of bets you can play so may ways.

   
• individual number repeats once either consecutive spins
• or in a sequence - identical finale
• individual finale repeats once either consecutive spin
• or in a sequence
• third appearance of a finale

You can target just the one finale at a time or you can target several


You can combine finales into groups of 9 or 10 numbers and then attack a repeat of the group. and other variations on this theme.


Some of these can be played flat staking when you take into account the Ecart swing.

[XXVV]

The more I look, the more I see opportunities to create bets.


I guess it comes with practice, as the creative curtains seem to periodically open, especially when you get into a 'family' of bets, such as the finales type I have just mentioned.


However I cannot even nominate a bet unless I have tested it at least sufficiently to ensure it works at least sometimes ( say 2000-3000 spins). Then you need to come to know the bet characteristics of behaviour.  How volatile is it, or how reliable is it, and what are the general parameters of its performance, ie the extremes good and bad.


Time and time again I find bets that can be played flat staking and their winning 'edge' varies. Often I create break even bets, so that at times they win, and at other times they lose. Thats just the way it is. We can take measures to mitigate loss and enhance gain, and one such might be a 'stop loss'.


However the Ecart swing determines the outcome and there it is. Sometimes the 'centre of gravity' of the swing is in more positive territory with some bets, or is it an illusion in the sand?


Just larger samples are needed to demonstrate the tipping point is just where it should be, or can it vary with different types of bet.


What are the reasons for why a bet will actually work, ie produce a more positive result than negative?


I believe it may be there needs to be another level beyond the tic- toc base bet, or there is a quality or condition that the researcher is looking into where there is a force at work that goes beyond the normal Ecart tides.


One such principle may be a phenomenon that is often noted with repeat or sleep characteristics, so that you witness a sort of double level force at work sometimes.


In the finales for example lets assume the 10 finales come out with reasonable deviations from the norm, and so in say a session of 300 spins there will be approximately 30 occurrences of a repeat
spin following spin of the same finale appearing.


A 1:10 ratio.


But I have also in ten samples seen an example of a 1:16.5  ratio and that makes a huge difference in the skew of results.


It is necessary to know and be prepared for such extreme events so this does not cause a catastrophic failure of the RiskBank.


I wonder though whether it is possible to monitor an overlay bet such as a trigger that switches on when a correction starts after an extreme deviation such as a run of more than 20 or 30 outcomes without repeat and the virtual play comes to an end with a hit.


It is by such a monitoring of this "elastic band" restorative force that some progress can be made- but beware the Gambler's Fallacy- dont expect the smoothing out to be immediate, and on occasion it may be delayed.


What I have done successfully though is with vast data samples, arrive at a definitive set of parameters for behaviour and then the occasional 'randomiser' can be mitigated with a stop loss.


This seems to work well as a principle and with patience and craftsmanship a set of conditions and bet rules can be established for several families of bets. Some seem to be better than others in performance, but in all cases there is a small edge. That edge varies with Ecart. So timing is everything.


It is nonsense that some write without hope or experience of relatively consistent winning sessions. They clearly have been looking, if at all in the fog, in the wrong direction.

[XXVV]

For a bit of fun here is a little study I did yesterday.


The name of this bet is the consecutive repeating finale (CRF).


Run through some results and observe.


I did for 3500 spins from Hamburg live. 10 sessions.


An example of my target is as follows.


14
22
31
9
19  hit
26
21
1    hit
11  hit  You just target 1,11,21,31


Do you see, easy.


On average you expend 3.7 targets for an overview of the ten possibilities.


The spacing of hits ranged from 1 ( as illustrated) to one that went for 78 spins! Thats random for you. But actually the distribution curve which plotted number of occurrences versus the spin timing showed a steady and quite usual decay curve allowing for the usual blips and minor blemishes.


10% of the outcomes for a repeat were achieved on spin one and this was the max. Does that surprise you? About 40% of all outcomes were in the the spin spacings 1-4.


Overall it was a sort of break even game.


However what makes it interesting and where there is a possibility of further work is in the short cycle skews where a cluster of repeats occur together.


You can read the Ecart movements.


In one session in the first 40 spins the result was +125 units, flat staking of course. Then it corrected over 300 spins.


Some finales will be hot, warm or cold and you can adjust your play to suit the unfolding new spin.


That overlay combined with reading of the Ecart swing may provide a more consistent winning strategy, but I havent had time to go that far with this one.


You can also introduce stop losses into the mix, or you can play them out with a progression such as the Whittacker Progression. Or you can do a 'lumpy' approximated quicker, rough progression to sort out most of the loss. Remember a hit on the first attempt may give you +32 or +33 units.


I like it because you are outlaying only a small number of targets, and if you wait for certain conditions ( say there has been 3 or 4 quite lengthy prior spin numbers before a repeat, and those were 23, 24 and 15, then soon there will be a correction and with this format it is usually quite sharp in your favour, unlike Gamblers Fallacy corrections on EC bets).


That's quite specific isnt it, a bit more than a framework!  Its that sort of approach I take in constructing bets. First though you have to determine a worthwhile area of investigation with a frequent good return, and then you have to churn through the results to see the distribution patterns.


Remember most bets have no edge, but there can be a temporary advantage in the short term.


This will help XXVV

[XXVV]

Following my thread on New Ways of Thinking, and the apparent advisability of frequent flips, which can involve personality re-vamps, I thought I would reflect my smiling face and provide a bit more specific help in this interesting idea train of thought which I had thought I would station but instead have decided to drive further along the tracks to an as yet unknown destination.


This puffery will probably annoy most readers so much they will get off. Sadly, in so doing they will miss a golden opportunity to which this train is headed, at least I think its headed that way (groan) - well it was when I tested a derived method within a method it  transformed earlier results.


You know this is a mere framework section, so I can't go into all the details but I would not encourage you unless I had traveled this strip before and returned with riches.


The important contribution I wanted to make, and all the reader needs to do is assemble the other principles recently discussed and churned, is to demonstrate a transformation series which runs parallel with a spin series.


This is actually what I thought that mysterious fellow Iceman was alluding to many moons ago when he upset so many. I gave him the benefit of the doubt.


Here is a spin series......


24
12
19
4
21
4
15
25
0
3
33
13
31
13
3
0
19
9
10
30
0
26
26
1
26
1
33
20
16
24
33
1
33
13
----




This sequence is imaginary but illustrates many of my personal foibles and would have resulted in a fortune being harvested.


On one level
if you look at the finale repeats from consecutive numbers, you will derive the following transformation series....


7
3
1
3
3
2
1
2
11


What do you think might follow in the transformation series?


That is your challenge, but  if you were alert on the day you would have harvested at least 4 hits worth approximately +113 units in 23 spins and then had a reversal which might have cost you (if anything) from 16 units to 34 units depending on where you applied the stop-loss.


There is a real method to this madness and its not that hard but it is suggested those who have the dedication and tenacity and those who are prepared to test a 1000 spins say may well find a useful method here, as long as they are choosy when to play or not. It works sometimes, maybe more.


Good Hunting
XXVV

[XXVV]

Quick note that there will be new notes on this thread next week. XXVV

[XXVV]

To be fair it is recommended to read all associated threads, ot at least the latest additions. The reason that several threads are run is to deliverately overlap all from slightly different directions, which is an overall approach I take to roulette play.
The threads are :
C/S Professional roulette studies ( ie this thread)
D+C ( where the reverse bet was developed)
New Ways of Thinking
Experimental Studies in Professional Roulette
Soon I will list groups of winning bets and outline strengths and weaknesses.
I have not found a bet that wins all the time but there is strong evidence that several of these bets have a positive edge to the player. Even with that edge you will not win all the time because it is in the nature of roulette to be cyclical, like the tides but without the regulating influence of the Moon. So the tides come in and out in random behaviour, but often with sufficient phases and signs to be able to enter and exit under favourable terms. One such tool for measurement is moving average, and that principle of overlay can be applied to all these win bets.
Examples and some detail soon.
Best XXVV

[XXVV]

Over the past 18 months I have scattered some comments, hopefully mainly constructive, in several threads, including Pattern Breaker, D+C, Whittacker progression, New Ideas and Experimental Studies , as well as this one.
I cant quite believe the progress that has been made, but through huge amount of time, effort, research, real play and communication with colleagues both on and off this Forum, some great leaps have been made to find the most successful and efficient winning bets.
Then when you over view it is not really that complex, but it took over 20 years to find the path through the woods.
Sometimes setbacks can be your best friends, and the default by the scammers out of Switzerland certainly motivated me 300% to avenge that nonsense. Mysteriously those writers had some good practical skills in roulette as well as manipulating many thousands of well intended members.
The principle of reversal is a really useful one as an example.
Also just watching others.
Recently on another thread one member asked why watch others. Well, amongst recording useful test data, it is also a reminder of what not to do when playing professionally. I used to do it so there is no superiority in my comments for really in roulette modesty and humility is paramount because as we are dealing with Uncertainty where no one can be an expert.
But we can learn to not put out so many bets simultaneously.
I recall Mr Square Roulette wisely advising that casinos made extra % edge every time a player covered more than one number. Your own efficiency is being diluted, and because you fear loss, you seek to cover more, when actually you are playing into the hands of the adversary.
Now I endeavour to only flat stake, or at least minimise progression extent based on knowledge of my bet characteristics, and focus on one technique at a time resulting in as few as one number being targetted or at max say 6 -9 numbers. However we all agree, one number is the most efficient from the point of view of focus. However sometimes we need to target from several dimensions, say table and wheel, and thus say a six line and a single number may be targetted.
The main groups of my personal winning bets :
Numbers that occur in a short space thus being warm to hot. Play no more than 4 targets.
Families of Finales
Wheel Sections
Table Sections
Cycles of spin numbers
Reversal Bets of matrix data.
Hunting Zero.
Overlap bets that are composites of the above characteristics.
Others.
As stated elsewhere, in my view there are many winning bets that can be engineered, and many of these will show positive edge over the house. In my opinion the reverse bet on D+C, given over view by moving average, and with independent bank management of zero betting as an overlap, is particularly effective.
In my recent live casino play flat staking that bet and without moving average overview being applied ( which would add +30% efficiency), in 15,000 live spins, ie 15 weeks of betting, the net result has been +550 units. It is assumed the zero bank balance is break even but actually that carries a small profit as well.
Martin Blakey the Australian Mathematician and Roulette professional stated some years ago that if you have a method that can earn you consistently more than 5 x your risk bank requirement then you have a winning strategy/ method. I use a 100 unit bank for the flat bet staking on that bet. It has never gone negative worse than 30 units.
With a short progression those results are doubled, and with Whittacker progression those results are quadrupled. Add to that a further 30% by use of moving average methodologies (YY) and you have a formidable professional commercial bet.
If you piece together my writings on this subject over all the threads mentioned, you will find all you need to do this yourself and apply this knowledge, at the very least in principle.
Should you need further comment and if you are genuine in your passion for quality work then PM me.
It is noted that Forums often house a lot of cyclic chat and some who really dont know the way forward but who are ready to attempt to confuse others. Also some think they are clever and expert. However beware any individual making such claims, or that such claims are implied. In my own case I have made many mistakes, have contradicted myself many times over 18 months, and realise just how little I really know. However I also achieve success in concentrated areas of relative expertise. Note 'relative'.
The way out of that bogof negativity projected by confused writers is to avoid such chat, ignore the confusion and hold to the belief that there are indeed various ways forward.
Nevertheless we have to know our inherent weaknesses first. Know thyself. Read Nassim Taleb and Daniel Kahneman. Be honest with yourself as a first priority. Dont be a Gambler.
Be selective and pick out some gems from otherwise confused contexts.
I always knew there were ways to win. I was fortunate to be taught by several professionals who themselves had their weaknesses. No one wins all the time, and by reading the brutally honest writings of John Patrick ( yes ignore the style but focus on the content and read the entire book on Advanced Roulette) you can see there are ways to win more than you lose even if you dont have a bet with a postive edge. But if you do then you have amazing opportunities ahead.
Its all to do with understanding Ecart, timing of entry and exit, and having sufficient 'free money' for your RB. Massive practice, patience, experience, management, self management, money management and time. Then more practice. Then watch. Wait. Timing of entry and exit.
Setting realistic win goals and then compounding your returns.
See casinos in a new light. They are not dens of iniquity. Far from it they are well policed, secure and comfortable places for exchange of resources. ( However even then consider the context and be on guard.) The variables are relatively limited relative to the open financial markets, and given sensible and rational behaviour and spread of your business focus they can be very helpful to you.
Treat them with respect and view your roulette as a new business opportunity.
Indeed, Good Hunting!  XXVV

[amk]

What can I say XXVV?

Thank you