Gamblers fallacy?

[mario12346]

Hello everyone,

I just wanted to discuss this subject a little as I like to bet on black and red most of the time. I often use a delayed martingale, (dangerous I know), with a cap at four or five loses, and usually try to get to £50 - £100 a night and get out of the casino before I push my luck. I win alot more sessions than I lose.

My question is: everyone talks about the gamblers fallacy and I constantly here that the wheel has no memory and is not influemced by the previous spin etc etc and even after 20 reds in a row it is still 50/50 chance, (or 48/48 or wotever considering the zero; but to me this is not the case at all in practice...

Apparently in Monte Carlo in 1913 there was 25 reds in a row which is the longest recorded, so that tells me that once you get to say for example 15 colours in a row then the next colour is infact due and will probably come in the next few spins otherwise 25 colours in a row and even more would be a common thing and they are clearly not! The most I have seen is 13 and that was only once, and Ive heard a groupier tell me he seen 17 once! So surely when you start getting towards 15 colours in a row then the opposite colour is infact due. This is due to the laws of ecart and balance and why 25 in a row has only ever been recorded once in history? Personally Ive had better results waiting for 5 colours in a row or more and then starting to bet.

[GLC]

If you search for the word tendency, you will find my latest system that uses your comments.

It is true that nothing is ever "due".   That's because once you reach, say 15 Reds in a row, the next spin is still 18 Reds against 18 Blacks and a zero.  That means there's still a slightly greater chance for a loss than a win. 

My system based on tendency is using your logic.  That given enough spins, the Reds vs Blacks will return to very, very close to true odds.  So, if a large imbalance of Reds vs Blacks is observed, we can say the tendency is for Reds to catch up with Blacks.  The problem is we don't know how long it will take for the correction to occur.  In fact, it may even continue to get a worse imbalance before it starts a slow correction.

The logic, if we can call it that, that I used was that on average, the tendency will be for correction more than it will be for continued imbalance.  We're trying to capitalize on the times the tendency to correction happens soon enough for us to profit by just a little, which is fraught with possible disaster.  I think it's called gambling.

GLC

[mario12346]

Thanks for your reply. The main point of my post was that 25 colours in a row is the longest ever recorded so the tendency is that the colour will change earlier than 25 spins, therefore if you got 25 blacks then the probability is not exactly 50/50 of another black coming because its never happend before so it would probably be a red.

This also applies to odds/evens, collumns etc The longer they are absent the pattern will change according to the laws of balance and ecart, we just dont know when, but as with colours we expect it to happen before 25 spins of the same colour as its only ever happend once in history.

Could you please provide a link to your latest system based on tendency?


Thanks,


Mario

[ausguy]

Back in 2005 at Star City Casino I was at a roulette table next to a table that had already spun 8 reds in a row, so I switched to that table & started betting $100 on Red each spin. Another 16 straight Reds came up (I was writing all the spins down) for 24 straight reds (a stack already off the Marquee) & black dropped then another 8 reds back to back came up. Then it all changed & never to string again while I was there with a mix of Reds & blacks & all off the same dealer. I'd won $1,600 but lost $100 on the Black drop so I took a $1,500 profit. I stopped betting & just observed.

What was amazing & funny was that I was the only person backing Red. Black bets were off the planet. So many chips & players betting that black was OVERDUE ? There wasn't enough space to fit all the chips, so some missed out. I kept saying to some back Red don't fight the wheel, look how I'm winning. Nope Black it always was, some were laying & losing $1k chips every spin. It was amazing to see the RED MIST over rule common sense as thousands were lost to randomness & lady luck every Red spin up, which was amazing to see in its self.

I still remember that dealer saying that this was his 1st day back from holidays & that the last day before his break he spun a very long string of blacks & that he always spins a long string every day some time during his shift. How true it was for his RED LETTER 1st day back on the job.

A lot of stuff doesn't get released to the public that happens on Casino wheels. There could be cases of say 30 spins in a row at some  casino somewhere in the world but only a few will see it? At the time it will be a brief WOW event for dealers, pit staff & a few players. Then fairly soon it's back to the usual play for everyone on both sides of the table.

For me, balance due & similar theories aren't relevant. All that matters is what's happening within the table limits windows in partnership with your progression. With a standard Marty that may only be 6 or seven bet levels.

[mario12346]

Personally I would have thought that if the staff were aware of the monte carlo event that if they surpassed it then they would notify the press but who knows.

And as for martingales they definatley need a few bet cap otherwise it could end in disaster, I learnt that the hard way.

[ausguy]

The Star Casino Sydney promotes next to nothing about gambling results. A visit to the site reveals little about the games apart from the usual basic rules you can even find anywhere on google. Even 100 Reds in a row would never be seen in a casino press release to the media.

It's like they avoid promoting gambling for fear of negative publicity ? They push more of the entertainment/accommodation/restaurants aspects of the casino as they, behind the scenes, rake in tremendous profits from the gaming. Have a quick look on line & you'll see what I mean (the non gambling side).

Marty is not too bad if you have some early stop loss SL betting in the progression line. As always you need 2 back to back wins to profit. That is a nil money trigger bet then the winning money bet. Stop loss betting stops long strings of losses on a negative run. Multi back to back switch back losses will always kill your BR.

You would have to be so so so unlucky to get a series of results like this (7 level Marty) EG,  after having set your SL after any L2 loss = L L then SL W, L. SL W, L, SL W, L SL W, L, SL W, L & bust @ the last & L7 chance = 5 switch back events in a row. It doesn't matter how many losses hit in the mix on any SL bet as there's no money laid out, it's only done on paper.  Testing will always show you the answer. All too often many players don't test/use SL betting to it's maximin potential ?

The biggest plus with Marty is that only 1 win is needed to profit & usually have you resetting back to your minimum bet.  The Star chip table rates only allow 6 bet levels. With on line live dealer table rates some offer great potential progressions. Paddy Power (a lot of countries are blocked for a/c's OZ incl.) has an EC range of 1 - 12,000 & allows 14 levels of progression but needs a BR of 16k + to do it to win just 1 unit. 10 levels is in the more realistic 1k area. Party Casino has 2 - 2,000 allowing 10 levels to win just $2/GBP/Euro.

[mario12346]

Cheers for your response ausguy!

The casino I frequent differs from yours in that the staff seem to offer little focus on the restaurant section and the place is clearly raking in huge profits from the gaming aspect. I often like to turn my gaming into a night out with a meal, or even if I go alone but stay for long periods I like to have a bite to eat also and Ive had slow, unenthusiastic service and meals that lacked ingredients stated on the menu lots of times and when I complained I was given very little customer service. Ive been seated and not offered a drink for nearly 40 mins on a saturday night with a large party of 12 people that would have had a bill of a few hundred pounds in food and drink but its nothing to them compared to what they make from gambling, as soon as I walked over to a busy roulette table a waitress walked past and offered me a drink! So I can get drunk and throw my money on the table? Also I once ordered bread and olive starter 3 nights in a row which came with an olive oil and balsamic vineger dip and the 4th time it came with no vineger, I complained and the girl told me it dosent come with vinegar. I said it did for the last few nights, she answered its not supposed to, I said it says on the menu that it does. She answered that it depends which chef is on and I answered that I wouldnt have ordered it if I knew it would come without that dip as thats what makes the taste. Ive just woke up and Im quite tired so I apologize if Im rambling but the point Im trying to make is that the staff in the restaurant often answer you with an attitute, lie and twist things and dont give you very good service at all. Im not naming the place but its a popular casino chain here in the UK.

As for the  early stop loss SL betting in the progression line, Im completley confused and lost. What does SL stand for? Is there any chance you could re-explain it to me, I am knew to the forum and not familiar with many of the systems and terms that forum members here use. This forum looks like a great recourse full of experienced players that can pass on so much knowledge and Im constantly reading through the old threads as well as creating new discussions.


Regards,


Mario

[ausguy]

Mario - The saying once bitten twice shy could be applied to your restaurant/bad service experience. Having a plan B &/or plan C for next time is the way to go. That is choose a restaurant(s) remote from the casino. Stand alone food places usually only survive if they provide good food & good service.

While perhaps it may be less convenient to go to 2 different places (eat then gamble) but overall it's only a little extra time to your total "night out experience", besides nothing sets the night up for a good time with everyone happy after nice food & drink + good service.

Knowing the negatives on offer at the casino you visit because you've "wised up" to their BS, 99% of the time works for most people. Things like extra drinks, tea/coffee etc. is never a drama anywhere you go, even your "problem" casino would be fine in that area. With 12 people all hyped up for some fun betting (not many casual casino visiting people are bet savvy anyway) they'll split up & regroup throughout the night. Some will squeal/laugh with delight on some lucky wins, while others will do their arse in 5 micro seconds. Most "night outers" don't have a lot of spare money to bet anyway so usually very little non casino BR damage done. The trip home with a dozen people would probably be a hoot, especially if they are like some groups & hire a mini bus.

As to stop loss betting your going to kick yourself here Mario as its staring you right in the face. Stop Loss = SL. It's an acronym no different to lots of others used every minute of every hour of every day, like PC = personal computer, IE = internet explorer, BR = bank roll, RNG = random number generator, EC = even chances, B & M casino = Bricks & Mortar live dealer chip casino like the one you visit. a/b = account balance, VB = visual ballistics (spin drop observations), V = virtual no money bet as part of a SL strategy (written on paper only), PB = pattern betting, L = loss, W = win, ID = Identification, L1,L6,L9 are all progression level examples. The list goes on, way past the horizon. Over time Mario you'll pick it all up.

I'll demo. a bit of basic SL betting Mario, say we are kicking it in after 3 losing bets in a row (you can have your SL after a L1.loss or anywhere along your progression line) = after L3 on any bet method you have. Every bet even the V bets take up a bet line. A V bet win triggers your next money bet. So to win a SL play needs 2 back to back wins = a V bet win which is the T = trigger for your next money bet. On a win most players usually return to their L1 base. You can tune you play style to suit your betting, like you could have 5 V bet triggers in your play before your next money bet if you think that will give you more safety ? Switch back results can kill your BR but it will save you 100% on strings of losses.

                                                                                                                                                        money bet
For this demo, I write this as L1.L, L2.L, L3.L, SL V & L. SL V & L, SL V & L, SL  V & L, SL V & W & T, L4.      MB      & L, SL V & L, SL V & L, SL V & W & T, L5, MB & W. As you can see it allows you to survive a lot of loss strings.

It won't survive this  L1. L , L2. L, L3. L then SL V W & T, L4. MB & L, SL V W & T, L5. MB & L, SL V W & T, L6. MB & L, SL V W & T, L7. MB & L. That should give you the idea. Also on the losing bets just shown, how unlucky would you be to get x 7 switch back losses back to back ?