Random Thoughts

[falkor2k15]

One thing I noticed what both Priyanka and winkel do: when they lose a trot or a cycle, they don't try to salvage it, but play more a "regression towards the mean" game. Priyanka seems to contradict herself somewhat when she says that she plays for an event, i.e. cycle length 3, but I reckon she changes her bet at the spin level when things don't go as planned whilst on a winning streak; however, upon a loss she does back out.

One new observation I've noted for the concise reference version 3 is that Priyanka seems to "increase the span of the biased game" in the Double Streets PP video: she extends a lost cycle to 2 repeats - and she does this on 2 occasions in order to recover them!  I bet nobody else noticed that! 

[falkor2k15]

VdW: "What is the applicability in roulette. Sorry, I don’t have an answer. It is yet to be seen, but I have an inkling that this versatility could be put to use somehow when we are having two variables that do not essentially have a 50-50 probability appearing, but could or might give an advantage when lining up in a VdW sequence".




H/L, DZ, QUAD, LINES
1 2 2 3
2 3 3 5
1 1 1 2
2 2 3 4
1 2 2 1

d d d d
d d d d
d d d d
d s d d

No bet - why?


H/L, DZ, QUAD LINES
2 3 4 5
1 1 1 1
1 1 1 2
2 3 3 5

d d d d
s s s d
d d d d

Quad 3+1 = normal bet. Why bet here and why bet normal and not opposite?


H/L, DZ, QUAD, LINES
2 2 3 4
2 3 4 5
1 2 2 3
1 2 2 3
2 2 3 4

s d d d
d d d d
s s s s
d s d d

2+3 = normal bet
1+4 = opposite bet

Why bet opposite? What is the VdW support for quads 1+4...?

The first example (from video 6; the 2nd of the Quads videos) I made a mistake in my analysis - I missed out a number!  There's probably no VdW at this stage - no bet was placed because it was a cycle length of 4; CL 3 = opposite bet; CL 2 = normal bet; CL 1 = cycle is not played at all.

VdW is probably being used on wins and losses* - why else would Priyanka wait for both virtual wins and losses?  It cannot be to even out the running totals of the stats/ratios because in that case she would only be waiting for virtual losses - never waiting for virtual wins too.

*There's a small chance it's the cycle length instead of wins/losses.

[falkor2k15]

OK, here's the sequence we need to analyse for VdW:

Defined by	Cycle	Number	Quad	Win/Lose	Comments
		29	4
		3	1
1	411	9	1		End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
		26	3	W	Bet last 2 quads
3	133	27	3	W	End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
		4	1	W	Bet last 2 quads
3	313	27	3	W	End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
		32	4	W	Bet last 2 quads
		18	2	L
		1	1
3	34211	7	1		End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
		28	4	W
		27	3	VL
3	1433	24	3		End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
		5	1	W
1	311	7	1	VW	End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
		28	4	W	Bet last 2 quads
1	141	2	1	W	End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
		15	2	W	Bet last 2 quads
		31	4	L
4	1244	30	4	No bet
		14	2	VW
4	424	29	4	VW	End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
4	44	31	4	L
4	44	36	4
4	44	35	4
		5	1
		11	2
		20	3	VL?
3	41233	23	3
3	33	23	3
		1	1
1	311	9	1	No bet
		27	3	VW	Bet opposite of last 2 quads
3	133	19	3	W	End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
		7	1	W	Bet last 2 quads
		15	2	L
2	3122	10	2		End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
2	22	16	2	L
2	22	12	2
2	22	10	2
		4	1
		26	3	VW?
2	2132	16	2	No bet
2	22	15	2	VL
		22	3
		31	4	VW
3	2343	25	3
		9	1	VW	Bet opposite of last 2 quads
		11	2	W	Bet last 3 quads
3	3123	23	3	W	End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
3	33	25	3	L
		14	2		Bet opposite of last 2 quads
		2	1	W	Bet last 3 quads
1	3211	5	1	W - why bet?	End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
		29	4	W	Bet opposite of last 2 quads
		20	3	W	Bet last 3 quads
1	1431	2	1	W	End of cycle: Bet all the other quads
		24	3	W	Bet last 2 quads
		16	2	W	Bet last 3 quads
2	1322	12	2	W	FINISHED

W
W
W
W
W
L


W
VL

W
VW
W
W
W
L
No bet
VW
VW
L




VL?



No bet
VW
W
W
L

L



VW?
No bet
VL

VW

VW
W
W
L

W
W - why bet?
W
W
W
W
W
W

[falkor2k15]

.

[falkor2k15]

Can somebody please PM me to check if my analysis is correct? Priyanka  , RMore  , Scarface  , rrbb  , praline  , RayManZ  ? 

[RMore]

It would be great if Pri would hop on and comment. Right now I'm a lurker because I just don't have the time to spend on analysis, as much as I would like to. But I haven't abandoned the topic. I admire your tenacity Falkor, and hopefully soon I can get back to some serious investigative work.

Rog

[falkor2k15]

RMore, sorry I forgot to mention that I am reluctant to post my analysis pertaining to the above sequence here in this topic (RouletteGhost might have already snapped up this potential HG though...) - so I just wanted somebody to confirm by PM if correct or not (I wasn't referring to the recent developments in the topic at large). Is there a way I can hide a post from 1 or 2 members? I don't mind RG seeing it. That's why I think it's better to PM innit.

[Turner]

That's why I think it's better to PM innit.

Did you actually just say " innit"?
I hope that was some kind of spelling mistake and not the annoying homies jive bollox "innit" that has infected the english language

[falkor2k15]

Did you actually just say " innit"?
I hope that was some kind of spelling mistake and not the annoying homies jive bollox "innit" that has infected the english language

Turner, if I do ever find the Holy Grail, you'll be the first to know - you get me, blood!? 

[denzie]

Did you actually just say " innit"?
I hope that was some kind of spelling mistake and not the annoying homies jive bollox "innit" that has infected the english language

Turner , you've gotta roll with da times bro....
These days they all spit like they from da hood 

(Thx to gangsta rap I think)

[Turner]

Lol.....a refreshing interlude to deflect my attention from all the smites Im getting

[denzie]

We could make a top 10 with the most smites. Then that feature would actually be of use. Btw I'm winning against you 

The funny part is there members who have a certain age who should know better then to involve in that childish game...but they smite the most 

[RouletteGhost]

RMore, sorry I forgot to mention that I am reluctant to post my analysis pertaining to the above sequence here in this topic (RouletteGhost might have already snapped up this potential HG though...) - so I just wanted somebody to confirm by PM if correct or not (I wasn't referring to the recent developments in the topic at large). Is there a way I can hide a post from 1 or 2 members? I don't mind RG seeing it. That's why I think it's better to PM innit.

[RouletteGhost]

Did falkor just say he is reluctant to post an analysis?

Did pigs fly or something?

[winkel]

RMore, sorry I forgot to mention that I am reluctant to post my analysis pertaining to the above sequence here in this topic (RouletteGhost might have already snapped up this potential HG though...) - so I just wanted somebody to confirm by PM if correct or not (I wasn't referring to the recent developments in the topic at large). Is there a way I can hide a post from 1 or 2 members? I don't mind RG seeing it. That's why I think it's better to PM innit.

Soon he will ask for deleting all his topics and posts, because there is the HG in it and he doesn´t want to reveal it to the public.

DejaVue, always these Dejavues. Is it only me? should I meet a psychiatrist?