Random Thoughts

[falkor2k15]

Try playing this for sets of 27 spins with both dozens and ECs and you will figure out a whole new way to play roulette.

Here's how I gained a whisker of an edge after 10,000 spins: (ignore the bug that says LOW HIGH after the number - just concentrate on the number itself)

Dozens transfer turned off - dataset 1


Dozens transfer turned on - dataset 1


Dozens transfer turned off - dataset 2


Dozens transfer turned on - dataset 2


Compare the before and after for datasets 1 & 2; notice the losses are slightly reduced with this feature turned on? 

[falkor2k15]

I doubt that actually did anything - I probably lost less because I bet less! 

Next test will actually be to alternate games - until somebody offers some more tips... 

[RouletteGhost]

falkor

start your own thread

and EXPLAIN WTF you are doing

PLEASE

[falkor2k15]

I might have to give up soon with VdW...

I tried alternating games based on wins and losses, but the bankroll just kept going down...

I tried playing first to 3 games, but the bankroll just kept going down...

I tried mixing up different spin numbers to form different APs, but the bankroll just kept going down...

I don't think I've got anything left to try with VdW... I'll have a look at cycles next, but it will have to be without VdW because nobody has the foggiest on how it can possibly be used...

[falkor2k15]

Let me take another example of a game, to illustrate a different game you can play. You can play the fastest colour to reach 3 to complete an AP. Take a set of spins that we saw earlier.

Spin   R/B   Fastest to 3
18   R   
19   R     
19   R      Red wins. Outcome 1
9   R     
31   B     
21   R     
17   B     
25   R      Red wins. outcome 1. Now play for AP to complete on red to become fastest to achieve 3.
26   B     
27   R     
36   R      Bet red.                     
31   B      Black appears. Loss. Bet red.               
17   B      Loss. Outcome 2. Our outcomes read 112           
34   R     
13   B     
0   0     
12   R     
26   B         
12   R      Red is fastest. Our outcomes read 1121
12   R     
10   B     
36   R     
12   R      Red fastest. Outcomes read 11211. Outcome 1 on next set will complete the AP
18   R     
23   R     
0   0      Loss.
1   R      Win. End of set. It read LLLW for this set.
10   B         
6   B             
30   R

Some stats I did over 10,000 spins:
Max lose count = max number of losses in a row
Total losses = total times the other colour reached the finish line first
As for bankroll there's no advantage I can see...

First to two games
Max win count = 10; Max lose count = 11
Total wins: 305; Total losses: 314

First to three games
Max win count = 8; Max lose count = 12
Total wins: 235; Total losses: 140

First to four games starting at two
Max win count = 13; Max lose count = 12
Total wins: 142; Total losses: 122

First to four games starting at three
Max win count = 8; Max lose count = 8
Total wins: 178; Total losses: 86

First to five games starting at four
Max win count = 9; Max lose count = 11
Total wins: 153; Total losses: 51

First to six games starting at five
Max win count = 9; Max lose count = 12
Total wins: 122; Total losses: 43

First to 15 games starting at 14
Max win count = 9; Max lose count = 11
Total wins: 46; Total losses: 13

First to 20 games starting at 19
Max win count = 6; Max lose count = 7
Total wins: 36; Total losses: 7

First to 30 games starting at 29
Max win count = 4; Max lose count = 12
Total wins: 25; Total losses: 3

First to 50 games starting at 49
Max win count = 8; Max lose count = 3
Total wins: 15; Total losses: 1

First to 55 games starting at 54
Max win count = 3; Max lose count = 8
Total wins: 12; Total losses: 3

[NextYear]

... start your own thread and EXPLAIN WTF...

Sorry RG, WTF is taken!

[donik7777]

Thanks a lot for this thread Priyanka!

Id like ask in 500 spins we have 63%, but when i decreased to 100 spins, percent changing from 45 to 80%.
It means need at least few hundred spins for keep constant.

Greetings.

[falkor2k15]

I got some new stats on the Quads now:
Defined by Total (same): 2424 (55.61%) (different): 1935 (44.39%)
Uniques Total (same): 1311 (39.48%) (different): 2010 (60.52%)
Length Totals 1: 1038 (24.08%) 2: 1569 (36.40%) 3: 1235 (28.65%) 4: 469 (10.88%)
Length Totals (same) 1: 1038 (43.00%) 2: 809 (33.51%) 3: 438 (18.14%) 4: 129 (5.34%)
Length Totals (different) 1: 0 (0.00%) 2: 760 (40.06%) 3: 797 (42.01%) 4: 340 (17.92%)
uniques Totals 1: 1569 (47.94%) 2: 1235 (37.73%) 3: 469 (14.33%)
uniques Totals (same) 1: 777 (59.31%) 2: 470 (35.88%) 3: 63 (4.81%)
uniques Totals (different) 1: 792 (40.35%) 2: 765 (38.97%) 3: 406 (20.68%)

It seems that by skipping cycle length 1 we've pushed "different" up to 60.52% and "same" has gone below 50%. Before our best odds were with "same" at 55.61%, so I think that's how we take advantage of the cycle length?

[falkor2k15]

I got more detailed stats here - check this out:
1 Uniques to 1: 777 2: 558 3: 211
2 Uniques to 1: 560 2: 470 3: 186
3 Uniques to 1: 211 2: 189 3: 63
Data set 1

1 Uniques to 1: 807 2: 590 3: 210
2 Uniques to 1: 576 2: 459 3: 170
3 Uniques to 1: 224 2: 158 3: 61
Data set 2

That's consistent and more accurate than "same" or "different"! 

[Scarface]

I got some new stats on the Quads now:
Defined by Total (same): 2424 (55.61%) (different): 1935 (44.39%)
Uniques Total (same): 1311 (39.48%) (different): 2010 (60.52%)
Length Totals 1: 1038 (24.08%) 2: 1569 (36.40%) 3: 1235 (28.65%) 4: 469 (10.88%)
Length Totals (same) 1: 1038 (43.00%) 2: 809 (33.51%) 3: 438 (18.14%) 4: 129 (5.34%)
Length Totals (different) 1: 0 (0.00%) 2: 760 (40.06%) 3: 797 (42.01%) 4: 340 (17.92%)
uniques Totals 1: 1569 (47.94%) 2: 1235 (37.73%) 3: 469 (14.33%)
uniques Totals (same) 1: 777 (59.31%) 2: 470 (35.88%) 3: 63 (4.81%)
uniques Totals (different) 1: 792 (40.35%) 2: 765 (38.97%) 3: 406 (20.68%)

It seems that by skipping cycle length 1 we've pushed "different" up to 60.52% and "same" has gone below 50%. Before our best odds were with "same" at 55.61%, so I think that's how we take advantage of the cycle length?

Don't waste time testing this one.  I thought by skipping the first spin on a new quad cycle would give an advantage, but it doesnt.  Wins and losses still come up as they should statistically

[falkor2k15]

Don't waste time testing this one.  I thought by skipping the first spin on a new quad cycle would give an advantage, but it doesnt.  Wins and losses still come up as they should statistically

But those uniques to uniques test results are to die for! I tried similar tests with different systems, but the results were never consistent across data sets because they were not within a finite cycles framework. This is the first time I've ever seen such a pattern that's consistent - not curve fitted. I could be wrong but this should gain edge without any VdW... I can understand why you are warning me, Scarface!

1 Cycle Lengths to 1: 240 2: 353 3: 315 4: 117
2 Cycle Lengths to 1: 396 2: 588 3: 407 4: 158
3 Cycle Lengths to 1: 288 2: 446 3: 351 4: 138
4 Cycle Lengths to 1: 104 2: 165 3: 148 4: 49

1 Cycle Lengths to 1: 255 2: 381 3: 292 4: 123
2 Cycle Lengths to 1: 389 2: 615 3: 459 4: 147
3 Cycle Lengths to 1: 289 2: 447 3: 347 4: 127
4 Cycle Lengths to 1: 117 2: 171 3: 112 4: 45

[falkor2k15]

Everythign that happens in roulette happens in a cycle. A cycle starts and ends when a number repeats.
... This will be my last post here and am not returning after this.

Have I been a good student? 

[falkor2k15]

Defined by 1 to 1: 574 2: 161 3: 160 4: 169
Defined by 2 to 1: 165 2: 648 3: 143 4: 173
Defined by 3 to 1: 155 2: 441 3: 561 4: 157
Defined by 4 to 1: 169 2: 169 3: 161 4: 641

Defined by 1 to 1: 637 2: 179 3: 164 4: 165
Defined by 2 to 1: 154 2: 632 3: 159 4: 163
Defined by 3 to 1: 158 2: 447 3: 600 4: 172
Defined by 4 to 1: 197 2: 139 3: 164 4: 562

[falkor2k15]

I'm going to start coding the system rules tomorrow; I'll then be able to drill down deeper into the win/loss stats... I can see why this is so much fun! 

[donik7777]

Nice job Falcor!