Which Force Is At Work? Is It The Magical Ether. Does It Exist?

[The General]

Naked hot numbers are sometimes just random hot numbers.  Actually, more often than not, they're just randomly hot.

Here's a better way for the gambler to pick hot numbers if you're a bit lazy and playing a live wheel.  (Remember when I said think like an engineer?  Well, here' an example.)

Sometimes when the ball leaves the track, drops down onto the apron and then rides the number tape on the rotor, it will follow a repetitive path. Especially the balls that drop in low and ride the number tape for one half or one full revolution before striking the frets.

Track the first point of first impact that the ball will make on the frets.  Meaning, record the number that the ball first strikes, not just where it lands.  These low orbit impact points tend to clump on some wheels because of ridges that form on delaminating numbers tapes, and because of oil, grease, dirt and grime.  Some wheels have these ridges from day one when they arrive in the casino.

After you've collected and graphed the strike points, you'll have a much better idea as to which sections of the wheel the ball is most likely to try on.  When picking your hot numbers, knowing which numbers have the best opportunity to try on the ball because of these ridges and warps can really help you get the edge.  Again, in order to get the most out of it, you want to look for the wheels where the ball is coming in flat... in a very low orbit decay pattern... riding the number tape on a relatively high percentage of spins, or traveling in and out of the back of the pocket repeatedly during each spin.   

Don't be lazy, track about 100 strike points before you play.  Sort by wheel spin direction.  It doesn't take long.  It's fast, it's efficient, and you can actually get an edge. 

Going the extra distance:  Plot the ball scatter yardage in pockets.  Measure how far the ball bounces after it first impacts the wheel.  If you collect about 100 spins, you'll have an idea as to how far you need to look form the dominant strike points to find the best hot numbers.

Best of luck,

-The General

[The General]

A little more on the "ridges" and "warps" on the rotor number tape.  The basically act as ball trip points.  Lots of wheels have them.




Hot women are not random hot women.  They are hot for a reason.

[Foolwise]

[The General]

ROFLOL !!!

[Bayes]

I'm not so sure about that, but for all I know you could be right.
I don't look at past spins when I sit down to play - that would be useless to me.
I could ask the guy next to me "Hey, any hot numbers ?" and he could say "yeah ! 30 and 21 !"
But.. So what ? They more than likely won't be my hot numbers - or they could be, but I won't bet on them based on what happened before I started playing.
Now - on the other hand, I sit down and play 10 because 10 just showed up (is it a hot number ?...hmm. It has a better chance of being one than a number that hasn't shown up yet)

I'm not understanding this at all. What you're saying is that the past spins that you have collected have a greater significance than those that someone else has. In other words what's "hot" for you isn't necessarily "hot" for me. Why would the other guy's numbers be "useless" to you? either the numbers are hot or they aren't. And suppose someone else joins the table after you've started betting and says "hey Turbo!, mind if I bet on your numbers?", do you then reply, "not at all, but don't expect win anything, only I'll win because they're my numbers!".

And regarding the independence debate, from the fact that every pocket on the wheel is present each spin ("sampling with replacement" as it's called in probabability theory), it doesn't necessarily follow that outcomes are independent. Independence means no "regularity" in the outcomes - outcomes could be regular in some sense and yet "sampling with replacement" is also true. An example? There are 2 dealers who alternate every 30 spins and have very different styles (they also use different balls). In that case, it could very well be the case that there is a measurable regularity in the outcomes. I can think of other examples. "Proof" is often no more than a lack of imagination (someone said that, but can't remember who it was).

[nottophammer]

What about the part on DUE

[denzie]

What about the part on DUE

Activate defends shields 

[Bayes]

What about the part on DUE

Good question. The gambler's fallacy is a logical fallacy which means in committing it you're contradicting yourself. This is the fallacious gambler's argument set out so you can see the premises and the conclusion:

1. I'm playing on a fair roulette wheel.
2. 10 reds in a row have come up.
3. This sequence of reds is increasingly unlikely.

Therefore, the next spin is more likely to be black than red.

Now, a "fair" wheel implies that outcomes are both independent and unbiased (there is no regularity in the outcomes and each outcome has an equal chance). The contradiction, and therefore the fallacy, lies in the conclusion which implies that outcomes are not independent. It involves a failure to understand that fairness implies independence, and the result is a contradiction.

But, you can resolve the contradiction by challenging premise 1. Maybe the wheel isn't fair? If that's the case, there is no contradiction. That's why it's not a fallacy to argue, as the General does, that betting on hot numbers is a good bet. The wheel may not be fair, in which case, bet on numbers which are hitting the most or are above expectation. On the other hand, betting on numbers that are DUE is irrational - the absence of something happening is not evidence that it is about to occur!

The point is, unless you make your argument explicit, you can't assume that someone is committing the gambler's fallacy simply because they use past spins to predict future spins.

[Bayes]

A question: You collect spins from your local casino and observe that runs of 10 or more reds don't come up nearly as often as theory predicts, so next time you see 9 reds in a row, you bet black.

Are you committing the gambler's fallacy?

[Steve]

Past spins ARE connected to future spins, but not in the way most gamblers assume.

For example, 9 reds in a row doesnt mean black is due. But it may be an indicator of physical bias, in which case red is the better bet. There must always be a physical reason for an outcome. Everthing is cause and effect.

Each spin is an indpendent event, but with shared variables from previous spins. So past spins do give clues to future spins.

[Steve]

Right. Whos the c*** that gave me an extra negative karma?

I'll find you...

(yes Im kidding)

[denzie]

How I can give that "karma" ?

Is this smiting and applauding?

[Steve]

Yes

[nottophammer]

A question: You collect spins from your local casino and observe that runs of 10 or more reds don't come up nearly as often as theory predicts, so next time you see 9 reds in a row, you bet black.

Good afternoon sir
Why in examples is it always red/black.
Why not collect 10 spins, you know from previous game play, that in the next 10 spins 1 of the previous 10 numbers on average repeats, so if 9 spins have past is it time to bet the last 9 spins plus the previous 10 to repeat

[RouletteGhost]

In this thread, they can put forth their best argument or insult (towards me) if they so choose.

My ban is expired. I will not come back here and post insults and attacks. (with exception of what I need to say right now)

The General has had the floor for the past week so hopefully this post does not result in another ban. I will state facts and only facts.

However since The General/Caleb/Houston/Xander/Real decided to start this thread and said "put forth their best argument " (quoted above) I will do so

Let me start with last weekend. Yes, my behavior was inappropriate. I had a few drinks. But in MY DEFENSE I did try to start a thread for debate which was a good thread until The General/Caleb/Houston/Xander/Real showed up. My thread was geared towards trying to understand what Priyanka was saying.

Who is The General? Well he is a man that is, or was, on most roulette forums. He trolls people. He tries to make people feel stupid. He tries to bring himself up with ridiculous posts like this one.

Caleb, actually dislikes Steve. So why is Caleb here?

Caleb is here because he has exhausted all other venues. Bet selection will not have him, roulette forum dot com sucks so he aborted mission there, roulette 30, now here.

This is not about "you can have your own opinion but not your own facts".

This is someone who does not understand this is a roulette strategy forum and people have a hobby making "systems" and testing them and playing roulette as RECREATION . Get it? Understand that? A hobby. Recreation. When it comes to a hobby, people using disposable money, you do not have the right to tell them they are wrong. You do it your way. Whoopie!

That is like me going to a gardening forum and acting this way because they use a different top soil.

He has to butt his nose in to make himself feel big.

We get it dude, you play VB. You regurgitate the same shit everyday.

I am not a "copy and paste" scientist like you are. "Typing" a novel of science in a matter of seconds. I am very very in tune with what is happening in the world and I am very knowledgeable on string theory and the ideas surrounding parallel realities/universes. I can discuss it without copy and paste. So smite me for liking roulette enough to view it as a hobby. 

What is a man who dislikes Steve so much doing here? Patronizing his forum? And partaking in his multiplayer game?