Let's Talk Progressions

[Scarface]

Which would you choose? 
1.  1 penny that doubled in value everyday for 1 month or..
2.  $10,000

Alot of people would quickly choose #2 for the $10,000.  However, if you choose #1, you would have more than 10 million!

It's easy to think in linear progression, but it's hard to comprehend exponential progression.  This is why double up after a loss Martingale progressions are very dangerous.

Let's say you start with $10 bet, and double on a loss.  If you lose 5 times in a row, then your next wager would be $320!  And 5 losses in a row on an even chance bet is very common. 

The opposite of a Martingale is a parlay, where you double after a win.  If you have a win streak of 5 in a row with a starting $10 bet, you win $320.

I know this is common sense to most experienced players, but alot of newcomers make this mistake. 

A parachute progression is another good way to keep your wagers low.  Maybe even combining two progressions, such as parachute + parlay.  I've been playing around with this lately and it's pretty great especially if you get an early hit.  Pretty nice to know you can go 150 or more losses straight without raising your bet, and one win on a parlay will put you back in the green.

Just imagine trying a martinale progression over 150 spins.  Trust me, it won't be pretty.  I can guarantee you will have a loss streak of at least 6 or 7 in a row that will have you wagering hundreds of dollars per bet just to hope to break even...at least with the parlay the most u could loose is 150 units.

Remember, winning streaks come just as often as losing streaks.  Parlay is a smarter bet. 

There are tons of progressions people use...parachute, martingale, divisors, parlays, etc.  What do you guys feel is the safest progression?

[DoctorSudoku]

My preference is to flat bet -- and if I get some early wins in the session, to use a partial parlay in conjunction with the flat bet.

[ignatus]

in the End, No progression can save you from a Variance. (long losing streaks), and the truth is, betting on the carpet (only) without considering the wheel is disaster, (no matter what triggers you have). Because betting on the carpet only IS always pure random...but then, IF you're willing to take the risk with a carpet-based system, ONLY the progression matters. And your Betsize matters  (how many numbers bet) AND ofcourse moneymanagement matters (what wingoal/stoploss you have) Furthermore, IT IS a common psychological problem to bet many numbers; We FEEL like it's a better bet, but in most cases (it's a bad choise) that would only increase the Risk...

So, what can we do if we're not willing to flatbet? -i'd say, play many SHORT sessions (with a decent stoploss/wingoal).

My favorite progressions right now is

1) POSITIVE PROGRESSION (up on a win, until reached a new high, then reset)
2) winkel's EXTENDED FIBONACCI. (that has been explained already) This progression can be adapted to all betsizes. Fibonacci numbers- each step in the progressionline IS played depending on different cycles for this particular betsize. This progression can survive longer than any ordinary negative progression,...

[Scarface]

My preference is to flat bet -- and if I get some early wins in the session, to use a partial parlay in conjunction with the flat bet.

Do you normally play even chances?  I usually start with flatbet.  But if I hit a bad streak, once I win I'll decrease the amount of numbers played, but keep overall bet size the same.

[Scarface]

in the End, No progression can save you from a Variance. (long losing streaks)

Yes, variance is the real bankroll killer.  If it weren't for variance, a progression can easily overcome the house edge. 

[sugtips]

How about we start progression like this:

Starting from minus

-8
-4
-2
-1
1
2
4
8

We can start from any point according to our session's bankroll. Both for negative progression and positive progressions

And just to clarify am not mad (or may be I am)

This is first idea, another one is cooking.

SugTips

[DoctorSudoku]

Do you normally play even chances?  I usually start with flatbet.  But if I hit a bad streak, once I win I'll decrease the amount of numbers played, but keep overall bet size the same.

Scarface,
I definitely play even chances as well as both single dozens/columns and double dozens/columns.

For whatever group of numbers I am playing, I flat bet. If I get some early wins, I will use a partial parlay for the next few spins only.

For instance, if I am at a $5 minimum table, I will flat bet with $5 for any even chance bet.

Let's say that because of some early wins in that session, I get into positive territory, then for the next few spins only, I might increase my flat bets to $7 per bet. That's what I mean by a partial parlay.

If I get a few more wins, I might increase my flat bets to $10 per bet, but again for a few more spins.

When it comes to roulette, I have become an ultra-conservative bettor over the last couple of years. I very rarely use negative progressions and if I do, then it is usually a 2 step Martingale of 1 2 -- that's it. Nothing longer than that.

[Scarface]

How about we start progression like this:

Starting from minus

-8
-4
-2
-1
1
2
4
8

We can start from any point according to our session's bankroll. Both for negative progression and positive progressions

And just to clarify am not mad (or may be I am)

This is first idea, another one is cooking.

SugTips

Kind of like a fluctuating bet.  I don't see why not.  The house edge will be the same.  Another way it could be done is in groups.  Say we have 360 units to wager.  Break that into 10 groups of 36 units

Bet $1 on a single number for 36 spins
Bet $12 on a dozen for 3 spins
Bet $4 on a quad for 9 spins
Bet $6 on a double street for 6 spins
Bet $2 on a split for 18 spins
And so on....

There are alot different combinations we can use here

[Scarface]

DoctorSoduku, I love it when variance is on my side as soon as I start playing.  Its a WHOLE lot easier using a progression when it's the casino's money.  A few months back, I played the minimum $5 bet, placing $1 on 5 numbers.  When I was up over $100 I uped the bet to $2 a number,  then gradually went higher the more I won.  After a little over 3 hours, was up $1100....never in the red the whole time

[sugtips]

It should be 1 win in 27 series of 3, not spins (1×3×27).  So, the odds are 1 in 81 spins I would win.

Above quoted text Copied from another thread.

Scarface so how about finding a 81 Steps negative progression for 1 dozen ? or the positive progression opposite of it?

[Scarface]

Above quoted text Copied from another thread.

Scarface so how about finding a 81 Steps negative progression for 1 dozen ? or the positive progression opposite of it?

This would be something I would have to test really good to see the worse case scenerio, to see if a progression would be worth it