Is proper bet selection really necessary?

[falkor2k15]

Winkel,

How can virtual bets possibly improve your chance of winning?

In the morning I was thinking to myself that virtual bets are a waste of time, but I reckon that since discovering the HG only this afternoon (untested) that virtual bets could be useful whilst traversing various structures; no worries, I'm in the process of creating an idiot's guide to the HG right now over in the parachuting topic. Here's a good question I've devised that I believe leads straight to the HG: why would you play number cycles of 36 numbers, ignoring zero - instead of playing number cycles that include zero?       

[Steve]

It changes the odds 
(be careful: sarcasm)

Typical response when he can't answer. He has only a vague understanding of odds, so I wouldn't expect him to know why pretending to bet makes no difference.

[Bebediktus3]

And if I´ve won 22 bets out of 37 it is a good thing to be careful and eventually start betting the opposite chance of the crossing

Look and you never thought that you won by some natural reason - for example, pockets, where you won, was simply wider, or pockets separator on these number was in some specifical form.  So if you change betting to other numbers - you simply go from winning line....

[winkel]

Typical response when he can't answer. He has only a vague understanding of odds, so I wouldn't expect him to know why pretending to bet makes no difference.

It´s the kind of answer like yours are. 

And your statement shows a total misunderstanding of probability.
If you take a permanence as ever existing endless stream of number 0 to 37 then your bet-sequence is just a little part of it.

Probability happens despite of you are betting or not.
Probability must/will show a performence which is close to the statistical averages. (even if you cut out some spins which you have bet or watched)
This is the chance to sit out downwaves and bet on high waves.

All the so called rules of probability are man-made. some are true at some times and at other times they are not true.
Man like patterns and some constructed behaviours of the probability but they don´t exist.

There are always 37 pockets left. and even the wheel is biased, there are still 37 pockets and all numbers have the possibilitys tho hit. It doensn´t mean that a biased wheel produces every spin the name result/number, does it?
Even if one (or more numbers) hit overdue, all numbers will have hit after a certain number of spins.

Everything else is Hope.
And you have to decide: Does your behaviour at the table change the odds or not? Either way GUT is on the right way.

[winkel]

Look and you never thought that you won by some natural reason - for example, pockets, where you won, was simply wider, or pockets separator on these number was in some specifical form.  So if you change betting to other numbers - you simply go from winning line....

Think a bit more about GUT.

If there is a biased wheel and some numbers hit more often in which group will they be listed? (hit once or more?)
If my bet on non-hit loses and I change to "hit once or more" do I change to losing or to wining line?

[Steve]

Winkel there are too many mistakes in your post for me to bother. Learn better and stop giving people false hope.

I hoped you had something promising but its clear you're an amateur with fundamental misunderstandings, masquerading as a professional.

[winkel]

Winkel there are too many mistakes in your post for me to bother. Learn better and stop giving people false hope.

I hoped you had something promising but its clear you're an amateur with fundamental misunderstandings, masquerading as a professional.

again no arguments nor proof that my claims are wrong.
Just damaging my reputation.

you have to learn. But it needs a brain to learn. thats the conflict.

[nottophammer]

If my bet on non-hit loses and I change to "hit once or more" do I change to losing or to wining line?

Depends on what spin you were betting on; you know and i know the further we go into the trot the more chance of >1x

But Prof we see beyond 1/37

[Steve]

Winkel i did explain to you, but you still struggle with the basics. You saw only what you wanted. Im not trying to damage your reputation. To anyone who does understand the basics, you do that yourself.

[winkel]

Winkel i did explain to you, but you still struggle with the basics. You saw only what you wanted. Im not trying to damage your reputation. To anyone who does understand the basics, you do that yourself.

You didn´t explain nothing. You just asked again and again: Do you change the odds?
I don´t struggle at all. You are struggling with "changing the odds" you can´t think other ways.
"To anyone who does understand..." typical movement of people with no arguments.
Who are these people "who understand". And what do they understand? If we follow you and the AP-people then nobody understands.
So you don´t have many people to support your argumentation.

Again in your answer: No argument, no proof

[Steve]

Winkel, are you prepared to have a proper discussion about this? No evasion. No responses of yours like "blabla" when the question is too hard. We answer each others questions and be perfectly reasonable. Ok?

Even on the simple point about odds, you claim:

- you dont change odds
- you dont need to change odds
- you just bet when you are more likely to win

One problem with that is if you are betting when you are more likely to win, that is changing odds. But your understanding is so poor you dont understand that. You even made jokes about it which made your  inexperience obvious.

No professional would be confused about what odds are, and whether or not their system changed the odds, would they?

Your logic and understanding of statistics is childlike. But one thing at a time...

My question is give me a typical simple sequence of events where your system wins.

For example, when thereare 18 unhits, bet all the unhit on the next spin.... and if you waited for this situation every time, you would win more than you lose.

Im not saying this is your system rule. Im just asking for one common situation, and what you would bet.

Turbo had similar bad understanding and couldnt address direct questions. Then spun utter bullshit trying to get out of a corner. That convinced me he knows he's misleading people. I would to think you really don't know better, but i doubt after all this time you don't. Let's find out.

[Nimo]

Odds and sods


Odds never change.  It doesn't matter if you use computers, advantage play, bias, VB, systems, etc.  The odds will always be 1/37 for straight up single spin plays.  What does change are probabilities.  Odds that  a zero will hit are 1/37, every spin.  Probability that the zero hits 37 consecutive times is somewhere north of a trillion.


Personally, I think the arguments are more about probability, odds are consistently 1/37. Probability changes dependence on the bet.  True random can give you 37 zeroes in a row with odds still being 1/37 per spin, the probability of that happening is the same as a Victoria
Secret supermodel seeing this post, tracking me down through the forum, knocking on my front door to ask me out.

Same old argument over and over.  It's getting old fast.  Odd never change, they don't need to.  GUT works within the odds.  Repeaters work with the Odds.  Probability changes, odds don't.  You either can't see it as your brain isn't wired to see things in a different light, or you purposely choose to be the naysayer on anything that isn't AP.  It's ok some people see things differently.  GUT happens, repeaters happen, the combination of the two is amazing. 

[Steve]

Odds never change.  It doesn't matter if you use computers, advantage play, bias, VB, systems, etc.  The odds will always be 1/37 for straight up single spin plays.  What does change are probabilities.  Odds that  a zero will hit are 1/37, every spin.  Probability that the zero hits 37 consecutive times is somewhere north of a trillion.

It depends on your definition of odds. In sports betting, odds means payout. But is it the probability? No. How can you measure the probability? Realistically you can't.

In roulette, odds are based on the assumption that all numbers are equally likely. Due to physics, they aren't equally likely. Thats the foundation of ap. Probability based on cause and effect is basically ap.

True random can give you 37 zeroes in a row with odds still being 1/37 per spin, the probability of that happening is

Many people misunderstand this point. Rare events are pointless and irrelevant. What matters is the discrepancy between odds (frequency of wins) vs payouts. Building systems around rare events doesn't work.

Odd never change, they don't need to.  GUT works within the odds.  Repeaters work with the Odds. 

If spins are random, then it's not possible to change odds. Your frequency of wins won't be high enough to overcome unfair payouts.

Understand proper definitions of odds and probabilities. If spins are random, they are the same values. Repeaters don't work because no matter what you do, there payouts are too low. There's no such thing as working within the odds. There is just odds vs payout. Looking at probability only really comes into play if spins aren't random, and then you're getting more into ap.

You either can't see it as your brain isn't wired to see things in a different light,

No, i see your understanding, and it's incorrect. I've explained why.

GUT happens, repeaters happen, the combination of the two is amazing. 

Do you understand why it's essential to "increase accuracy of predictions"? Basically if you only win 1 in 37 tines, but are paid just 35-1, you're being short paid.  Getting around that without changing accuracy of predictions is literally impossible, unless you're talking about short term results.

[Nimo]

I understand probability, here is an example of how probability increases with GUT 18/19

Spin 1 probability of a hit is 48.6486%
Spin 2 probability of a hit is 73.6303%
Spin 3 probability of a hit is 86.4588%
Spin 4 probability of a hit is 93.0464%
Spin 5 probability of a hit is 96.4292%
Spin 6 probability of a hit is 98.1663%
Spin 7 probability of a hit is 99.0584%
Spin 8 probability of a hit is 99.5164%
Spin 9 probability of a hit is 99.7517%
Spin 10 probability of a hit is 99.8724%
Spin 11 probability of a hit is 99.9345%
Spin 12 probability of a hit is  99.9663%
Spin 13 probability of a hit is 99.9827%
Spin 14 probability of a hit is 99.9911%
Spin 15 probability of a hit is 99.9954%
Spin 16 probability of a hit is 99.9976%
Spin 17 probability of a hit is 99.9987%
Spin 18 probability of a hit is 99.9993%
Spin 19 probability of a hit is 99.9996%
Spin 20 probability of a hit is 99.9998%
Spin 21 probability of a hit is 99.9999%
Spin 22 probability of a hit is 99.9999%

Goes on infinitely, depending on how many digits you want to round to before it reaches 100%. 
These are probabilities, not odds.  Not payouts.  Knowing those three, you can formulate a strategy to profit more than you lose, consistently.   No computers, no VB, no wobbly wheels.  All within the math.

[Joe]

Odds and probabilities seem to be used in different ways and it can get confusing. I usually think of odds as payouts, that's what it means in sports betting anyway.

Odds never change.  It doesn't matter if you use computers, advantage play, bias, VB, systems, etc.  The odds will always be 1/37 for straight up single spin plays.  What does change are probabilities.

I think you mean the payouts here. The payout for a single number is 35 to 1 and that is fixed and never changes, but the probability of a single number hitting can change. Suppose the number is biased? how can it then have a probability to hit of 1/37?