Is proper bet selection really necessary?

[Nimo]

Odds and probabilities seem to be used in different ways and it can get confusing. I usually think of odds as payouts, that's what it means in sports betting anyway.

I think you mean the payouts here. The payout for a single number is 35 to 1 and that is fixed and never changes, but the probability of a single number hitting can change. Suppose the number is biased? how can it then have a probability to hit of 1/37?

I did say probability changes, odds don't.  The odds are 1/37 or -2.7%.  That doesn't change.  Never will unless they add or delete numbers from the wheel. 

[Bebediktus3]

No computers, no VB, no wobbly wheels.  All within the math.

Are you the millionaire  ?

[Nimo]

Are you the millionaire  ?

I made/make my fortune sports betting, I work on roulette as hobby, but very profitable one so far.

[Joe]

The odds are 1/37 or -2.7%.  That doesn't change.

But if you have an edge it must, for you anyway. If you only win once per 37 spins on average how do you make a profit when the payout is fixed at 35-1? If you can manage to win once per 30 spins then you have increased your win rate relative to the payout, so you will make a profit.

[Nimo]

But if you have an edge it must, for you anyway. If you only win once per 37 spins on average how do you make a profit when the payout is fixed at 35-1? If you can manage to win once per 30 spins then you have increased your win rate relative to the payout, so you will make a profit.

Here is a full coverage system, every single number on the board is covered.  The odds are still 1/37, the only difference in the profit is a progression.  Some numbers have more on them than others.  It's dynamic as well, the progression moves and  does not stay on the same numbers equally.  This doesn't improve bet selection, doesn't need to, doesn't change the odds. Only variable is variance of the numbers coming in randomly and amount of progression going on numbers randomly.



Odds never change.

[The General]

I understand probability, here is an example of how probability increases with GUT 18/19

Spin 1 probability of a hit is 48.6486%
Spin 2 probability of a hit is 73.6303%
Spin 3 probability of a hit is 86.4588%
Spin 4 probability of a hit is 93.0464%
Spin 5 probability of a hit is 96.4292%
Spin 6 probability of a hit is 98.1663%
Spin 7 probability of a hit is 99.0584%
Spin 8 probability of a hit is 99.5164%
Spin 9 probability of a hit is 99.7517%
Spin 10 probability of a hit is 99.8724%
Spin 11 probability of a hit is 99.9345%
Spin 12 probability of a hit is  99.9663%
Spin 13 probability of a hit is 99.9827%
Spin 14 probability of a hit is 99.9911%
Spin 15 probability of a hit is 99.9954%
Spin 16 probability of a hit is 99.9976%
Spin 17 probability of a hit is 99.9987%
Spin 18 probability of a hit is 99.9993%
Spin 19 probability of a hit is 99.9996%
Spin 20 probability of a hit is 99.9998%
Spin 21 probability of a hit is 99.9999%
Spin 22 probability of a hit is 99.9999%

Goes on infinitely, depending on how many digits you want to round to before it reaches 100%. 
These are probabilities, not odds.  Not payouts.  Knowing those three, you can formulate a strategy to profit more than you lose, consistently. 

No you can't.

1. You're not exploiting any defects in the wheel.
2. You're not making a prediction based on the position of the ball in relation to the speed of the rotor.
3. The same number of pockets remain on the wheel from one spin to the next.  This means that the odds don't change from one spin to the next... just because some numbers have or have not hit.

The GUT is a poorly conceived idea not grounded in common sense and logic.

[Nimo]

No you can't.

1. You're not exploiting any defects in the wheel.
2. You're not making a prediction based on the position of the ball in relation to the speed of the rotor.
3. The same number of pockets remain on the wheel from one spin to the next.  This means that the odds don't change from one spin to the next... just because some numbers have or have not hit.

The GUT is a poorly conceived idea not grounded in common sense and logic.

I never exploit defects in the wheel, not needed.
I don't watch the rotor or any other part of the wheel, I'd rather look at the cute blonde next to me. 
I  said multiple times, the odds don't change.  Probability does. 

[Nimo]

Here is a full coverage system, every single number on the board is covered.  The odds are still 1/37, the only difference in the profit is a progression.  Some numbers have more on them than others.  It's dynamic as well, the progression moves and  does not stay on the same numbers equally.  This doesn't improve bet selection, doesn't need to, doesn't change the odds. Only variable is variance of the numbers coming in randomly and amount of progression going on numbers randomly.



Odds never change.

ODDS DONT CHANGE

This could continue on and on......sigh

[The General]

Why did you play 73 spins when you could play just one? 

[Nimo]

Why did you play 73 spins when you could play just one? 

I grew up in the seventies, I like the music from 1973

[Joe]

I  said multiple times, the odds don't change.  Probability does. 

Odd and probabilities are just different ways of saying the same thing. Odd are expressed as ratios, so a probability of 80% is the same as 0.75 / (1 - 0.75) = 3, or 3 to 1. Odds are the ratio of probabilities P(x) / not P(x).

[Joe]

so a probability of 80% is

That should be 75%. Why does the number eight come out as a "cool" smiley?

[Nimo]

Odd and probabilities are just different ways of saying the same thing. Odd are expressed as ratios, so a probability of 80% is the same as 0.75 / (1 - 0.75) = 3, or 3 to 1. Odds are the ratio of probabilities P(x) / not P(x).

From the internet:
Probability and odds are two basic statistic terms to describe the likeliness that an event will occur. They are often used interchangeably in causal conversation or even in published material. However, they are not mathematically equivalent because they are looking at likeliness in different contexts.

Probability that I will die 100%.  The odds that it happens today 50/50, either I do or don't.

[Nimo]

From the internet:
Probability and odds are two basic statistic terms to describe the likeliness that an event will occur. They are often used interchangeably in causal conversation or even in published material. However, they are not mathematically equivalent because they are looking at likeliness in different contexts.

Probability that I will die 100%.  The odds that it happens today 50/50, either I do or don't.

It's all semantics anyway.  I'm not a math major, I just use common sense, things happen and they happen within whatever math this is. 

[Joe]

I  said multiple times, the odds don't change.  Probability does. 

That's right, but what's confusing is you're saying the "odds" are 1/37. In sports betting and gambling in general, the odds usually means the payouts. Bookie's odds change but not in roulette, each winning # is paid 35-1 which equates to a probability of 1/36.