Why Sleepers are better than Repeaters!

[falkor2k15]

As you know: Roulette is a break even game. Hot is not better than cold and vice versa. Hot may come more frequently, ie. dozen 121 or 233 (2 dozens in 3 spins) compared to dozens 213 or 321 (3 dozens in 3 spins), but the cost of covering the repeat becomes more expensive with less payout/reward - ultimately ending in break even.

Let's look more closely at dozens in 3 spins:
11 = 33% CL1
121 = 44% CL2
1231 = 22% CL3

Let's say it wasn't a break even game and we could get a cheap investment on the most likely events then we would bet CL1 and CL2 compared to CL3. This is because CL2 is the most common event @ 44%, but if we were to cover either CL1 or CL3 then we would go more with CL1 @ 33%, as the rarest event is CL3 @ 22% (least likely), as we would expect.

So, despite breaking even, a dozen cycle is more likely to close early than late. It's the same with Lines or numbers. Numbers never close late - they always repeat early rather than letting sleepers get the better of them! Again, this has nothing to do with profit/loss, as the game is break even regardless of most likely or least likely events.

Now here comes a bombshell... if we want to play repeats on cycle lengths and our cycle begins with CL3 then sleepers end up winning more than repeaters!

CL3...
OCL1 = 22%
OCL2 = 48%
OCL3 = 30%

Here we would likely bet OCL2 and OCL3 instead of OCL1! Therefore, an immediate repeat @ 22% becomes least likely compared to all 3 uniques showing @ 30%.

So, at this level, our game is no longer about trying to bet repeats - nor is it about trying to bet for all uniques to show. It becomes a game of betting sleeping CL2s to repeat and play catch up at the same time:

CL3... bet CL2
CL3, CL1... bet CL2
CL3, CL2... bet CL2

Summary: repeats are only more likely during an equally-likely game. In a game that is NOT equally-likely, sleepers prevail.

[RouletteGhost]

yes

a dozen cycle on average will close earlier than later

this falls in line with the law of the third

but most of us have progressed and now KNOW this does not help the bettor to make a decision

sure, we can bet the last 2 dozens hit but due to the amount of numbers we are betting its something a progression cant help with

trust me, i tried with grassroots

[falkor2k15]

Right, and the outer cycle will closer later than earlier when beginning with CL3. The only exception is if we ignore time and see which order is more likely to be awarded the repeat:

CL3...
46% CL3 (appeared first)   
43% 2nd appearer   
11% 3rd appearer

This means that for CL1 and CL2 to overtake CL3 - needing just a single appearance - falls short by 3%. This may seem like CL3 has extra strength to be awarded the repeat over CL1/2, but really it highlights the power of CL1/2 to dominate over multiple trials. I guarantee that a Line cycle starting with CL6 will not maintain the same power.

For example, the above is like saying that 36 unique numbers have more chance of appearing than 15 15 or 24 24 (immediate repeats) but that the 37th number is more likely to be a repeat of the 1st or 2nd number. And it's not like you can wait for the repeat because we don't know when it will strike. So even if you know the 1st and 2nd number has more chance of winning, you can't keep betting over long cycles of 30+ length (as an extreme example) just based on an extra 3% chance that when the repeat does finally come it will be the 1st or 2nd or 3rd number out of 36 uniques.

Therefore, the repeat is doomed when it comes to a larger cycle/set of uniques that are not equally-likely. The strength of repeaters dwindles, whilst sleepers increase. Sleepers are more likely to catch up than repeats are like to continue repeating - and the sleepers are the ones likely to play catch up and repeat at the same time.

[falkor2k15]

Thinking more about it I guess that hot would maintain strength in the equally-likely realm, but the not equally-likely realm would be dominated by the sleeper:

1212322113111222 = repeaters
CL3 CL1 CL1 CL2 CL2 CL2 CL2 = repeating sleepers

Since they appear almost like opposites perhaps both streams could be monitored together to find an exploit. Up till now I've treated both types of streams the same and expected the same behaviour from them. It's also more support for the parachute strategy that concentrates on sleeping CL2s as opposed to repeats of CL1-3.

[6th-sense]

Falkor..after our earlier clash I’m afraid to say it but I’m getting into your cycles and threads..and actually find it pretty interesting now..👍