Good signals from system

[Bebediktus3]

Next, plot the difference on a graph like below.

More simple simply write the smallest distance no matter to which side.
So chart can be like this
18-17-16-15-14-13-12-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1-0-1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-13-14-15-16-17-18

[Roulettebeater]

Use a very simple way to detect what is what. You have some prediction - so that is number which you expect will win. And you see real result.
Now simply count the shortest distance between your prediction and result. Do that on all spins and calculate average distance from all.

In most cases - average distance will be around 9 - that is bad for you because that say - that game is random for you and to win is not possible with such predictions.
But if you will get average 7 or less - that is a good signal for you and that means that advantage is in your side...

well, that's a very interesting observation.
i will dig into it and tell you what i come out with.

[Roulettebeater]

so here is the result:

Total of played/simulated spins= 4069

Code Select Expand



Dela(difference in pockets                Occurencies
between expected and result)              (number of times this delta happened)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3                             |              118
7                             |              112
17                             |              111
-13                             |              107
-18                             |              105
15                             |              104
-8                             |              102
16                             |              101
-15                             |              100
-4                             |              99
-9                             |              99
-17                             |              98
11                             |              98
-14                             |              96
6                             |              96
-12                             |              95
0                             |              94
-11                             |              94
1                             |              93
-6                             |              93
-10                             |              93
-3                             |              93
12                             |              90
-1                             |              90
8                             |              88
-16                             |              88
10                             |              87
9                             |              84
5                             |              84
13                             |              84
-5                             |              83
14                             |              82
-2                             |              82
18                             |              82
4                             |              77
2                             |              75
-7                             |              72




if i permanently choose to play all the first 9 delta (total occurencies=960 out of 4069) , i will be playing with a percentage of of hit approx 25.6%.

what do you think?

[Bebediktus3]

Your average distance is   9.385 ( you must count all in absolute value ) what show that prediction is absolutely random. For example me not play wheels on which I have distance >7.2 from about 50-90 spins because still are a tendency to move towards a number 9.
The only suggestion is to learn to predict more accurate...

[The General]

Ignore the chart title.  These are standard deviation graphs of how far off your predictions are.   If you have another out of sample it would be interesting to see if the best area is also on the opposite side of the predicted.  It could be that you just need to rotate your prediction 180 degrees. 



It looks like your prediction should be on the other side of the wheel.



But the best section is still only 1 in 35.04.  That's awfully weak, and most likely random. 

[Turner]

Interesting post Caleb

[Bebediktus3]

It looks like your prediction should be on the other side of the wheel.

Your average distance is   9.385 (

Average 9.4 the same point to other side....

[Roulettebeater]

Ignore the chart title.  These are standard deviation graphs of how far off your predictions are.   If you have another out of sample it would be interesting to see if the best area is also on the opposite side of the predicted.  It could be that you just need to rotate your prediction 180 degrees. 



It looks like your prediction should be on the other side of the wheel.



But the best section is still only 1 in 35.04.  That's awfully weak, and most likely random.

Are these graphs for my data ? I don’t understand them, can you please explain them ?

[Roulettebeater]

Average 9.4 the same point to other side....

Well that’s well known but you still have an issue, you know that you have two points that meet this criteria (+ and -9)

How are you going to place your bet in this case ?

[Bebediktus3]

How are you going to place your bet in this case ?

You must bet in oposite side from your prediction, look to second Generals chart.

[Roulettebeater]

You must bet in oposite side from your prediction, look to second Generals chart.

But you just said that Average 9.4 Pockets away from prediction, that means if for example my prediction was 31, I need to jump 9 pockets on each side and new prediction will became (3 or 23)

Is that correct ?

[The General]

Roulettebeater,

I took your data...organized it....converted the negative wheel positions back to positive wheel positions....then created a standard deviation graph of the results.   

Now if you want to dig deeper, then I need to see the actual data prediction stream.  Meaning the prediction that was made at each spin and then the result.  Here's why...I can measure the drifting trend in your predictions and possibly find the problem.

[Bebediktus3]

Is that correct ?

No, that calculating average distance only tells you about advantage is it or not. Where to bet show something like Generals chart.

[Roulettebeater]

Roulettebeater,

I took your data...organized it....converted the negative wheel positions back to positive wheel positions....then created a standard deviation graph of the results.   

Now if you want to dig deeper, then I need to see the actual data prediction stream.  Meaning the prediction that was made at each spin and then the result.  Here's why...I can measure the drifting trend in your predictions and possibly find the problem.

Ok that’s easy
I can do.

What do you think about the result ? Is it promising ?

[Roulettebeater]

No, that calculating average distance only tells you about advantage is it or not. Where to bet show something like Generals chart.

Ok, thx for replying