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Random thoughts

Started by FreeRoulette, Jun 01, 02:11 AM 2020

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FreeRoulette

About to go to sleep andy brain grinds on random thoughts. Maybe I'm too tired to think straight. So, I'll ask the board.

You get 2 flips of a coin and have 3 bet option.
1. both heads
2. both tails.
3. heads and tails.

The combinations are
hh
tt
ht
th

We don't know if it will be ht or th. But if we bet h and it comes up t, then we bet h again.
If we bet h and ot comes up h, then we bet t.

If we apply this to red/black, then it seems like you get a 25% chance to win once in 2 spins by betting the same color, or a 50% chance by trying to capture both colors.





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ati

You have 25% chance to win both bets. The probabilities of each spin multiplied, gives you the 25%.
1/2*1/2 =  2/4 = 25%

But the odds of winning for each individual spin never changes! First you get get 50% chance of red or black. Let's say you get red, so now you can have either RR or RB, which again leaves you with 50%.

You can never include past results in the equation to calculate future probabilities! The results are independent.

Richard Meisel

Quote from: FreeRoulette on Jun 01, 02:11 AM 2020
About to go to sleep andy brain grinds on random thoughts. Maybe I'm too tired to think straight. So, I'll ask the board.

You get 2 flips of a coin and have 3 bet option.
1. both heads
2. both tails.
3. heads and tails.

The combinations are
hh
tt
ht
th

We don't know if it will be ht or th. But if we bet h and it comes up t, then we bet h again.
If we bet h and ot comes up h, then we bet t.

If we apply this to red/black, then it seems like you get a 25% chance to win once in 2 spins by betting the same color, or a 50% chance by trying to capture both colors.
There is no 50% chance of a fair coin toss because every coin has one side that is heavier, and the heavier side will win. You can apply this to a 2 Dozen Bet with equal Units and the WL= 0, the LW = 0, and the WW and the LL will be equal, and you try to get more WW's than LL's. In your example lies the fundamental problem in Roulette which is the BET SELECTION. There are numerous PROGRESSIONS and METHODS OF BET SELECTIONS in this Forum and on the internet. The BET SELECTION that I seem to do well is: 1st Loss = Change; 2nd Loss = Change; 3rd Loss = Change; 4th Loss = Same; 5th Loss = Change. I usually Start over after 5 Losses (but if you have the money, then continue) and triple the original Bet. I'm fond of the Progression 5-10-15-25-40-65-100. Be Blessed, my friend.

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