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How to beat the roulette with the standard deviation (and open your eyes)

Started by outsider, Jul 29, 02:43 PM 2022

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0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

outsider

1+ year that i'm not here and things are always the same (not improved, like my mediocre english). I will try to say something that can orient as many people as possible away from being stuck.
If you bet on 1 number or 12 numbers or 18 numbers doesn't matter. What matters is: WHY you bet on those numbers? There must be a good, real, specific reason to bet on a thing intead of another. What i noticed (not only here, but also in european forums) is that people likes to create or read methods and test them hoping in a good result, even though that method is clearly rambling, without any solid basis in which you can rely on. I guess that the sweet joy of seeing the bankroll go up is a very comfortable sensation... gives the relief of have found something good, until the bankroll falls in to an abyss. At that point the loop start over with the need to find a new (casual) method that can make feel that nice thrill again. The stupid dream of finding the holy grail, how average people likes to call it, is just an illusion! Things like making profit on a negative edge machine as the roulette don't happen by chance, and most of all don't happen without work. Because, yes, everything takes effort.
So if someone wants a friendly advice, stop numbing yourself with the illusion of magical methods that can make you rich with a snap of two fingers. Just move on something else asap so that you will not continue wasting your time. I know, the charm of the queen is strong, the desire of beating the roulette is strong, but just give it up. Brutal, maybe, but honest truth.



To the stubborn "fools" (most probably more than they should be) that wants to feels the efforts with their own hands there are two roads to play in a sane way. 1 regards the physics with biased roulette, but unfortunately i'm not an expert here. 2 regards start playing when you know that there is a direction that the roulette will need to take for a mathematical reason.
Each spin is new and not affected from the previous one. Yes, but in a reasonable number of spins (events) the roulette, as a generator of events, must (and i repeat MUST) deal with something called standard deviation.

Standard deviation (if you don't know what this is, google it and learn) is expressed in a value called SIGMA.
Now, the sigma works in this way: most of the time an event falls inside the range sigma +1/-1. (about 68% of the time)
Silly example: in 37 spins you can expect that the number "12" appears one time. If it appears one time, its sigma will be zero, because it's the perfect expectation respected! If the number 12 appears 2 times in 37 spins its personal sigma will be negative by a precise value. Instead, if it appears zero time its sigma value will be positive. (Same thing goes for groups of N numbers).
Moving on, the sigma range that in nature contains almost all the events (99.73%) is the range +3/-3. In scientific matters can also be used a larger range to be more precise, like the forth or fifth sigma. The roulette, due to its billions of possible combinations between groups of numbers, can reach a sigma of 7 in very rare occasions. (you will never see it reach a value of 8 in a whole life.)
To give you an example, if the red numbers don't show up for 52 spins, they will reach a value of sigma 7.018, just to make you realize what rare means. Of course thanks to the billions of combinations between groups of numbers the chance to see that value icreases, but it will still be very rare.
It's important to know that the sigma will always tend to return inside lower ranges, until it goes to zero, or negative value, or start increasing again, but the math thing is that it will always point to zero.


SO, now the heartwarming, sweet, comfortable part that all are waiting for: what happens if we start playing knowing of a situation of sigma 6 (for example) in place? Happens that we play with a favorable wind. We have an advantage. We know that, FOR SURE, the number, or group of numbers with sigma 6 will need to show up in order to reduce its value. As i said, in rare occasion the value can temporarily go to higher values, but in the end will always go down. It's a rule of math, it's a rule of nature. You can bet your life on that and test as much as you want, the sigma will always tend to lower values.
This is the macro/basic explanation. Of course there are a lot more things to know to take advantage of this method. A simple martingale (or any other random MM strategy) will just lead to the tomb. Analyzing groups of numbers for a random number of spins will lead to the tomb. There are so many details to cure to succeed. Nothing can be left to the chance, that's why it can be considered almost a work and not a magic holy grail.
I will not add any other details here. It's up to people to decide if the game is worth the time or not.
To quit and move on.
Or to study and try to learn by yourself the argument above. A very raw version of this matter has been created by Marigny De Grilleau, but he doesn't use precise values such as the sigma, and his method is full of approximations and clumsy that slow down the time to have all the requirements needed to start playing. Still... it's public somewhere on the internet, so better than nothing.
For who wants to know everything about the complete method (of course the sigma one, not Marigny's) what to play, when to play, how to play, and how long to play, you can pay and have all the tools, the knowledge, everything, by me.

Last time, of all people who came to me, 3 tried to play smart with me and it didn't end well for them. So, please come to me only if you think you are a serious person willing to pay to have something in return. To contact me you can send me a PM on my other profile: Insider. Since this profile is still bugged and Steve seems too busy to fix it.


Just to be clear, a little recap.
If you are at least a bit clever, stop wasting time with something that will never give you that delusional holy grail that you want, and move on better fields.
If you are a stubborn fool, just pursue the roads explained above (because other valid ways don't exist). Study, try to learn, try to fill the gaps in my basic explanation hoping to make up something solid which can give a real advantage. I'm aware that the most part of people who will read these arguments will not fully understand the concept, the correct application, or even the correlation between standard deviation and mechanisms such as the roulette, but hey, this was given for free.
Instead, if you are a stubborn fool willing to pay, you can get the whole package.


*To give a suggestion, standard deviation regards each field where odds are involved: sport betting, trading, and so on... the principles are the same, so methods related to this argument it's not limited to the roulette.

Taotie

Wrong section buddy. Put it in the for sale section you dumb c*nt.

outsider

Hey, buddy, this thread, for the 99% of the part, is about explaining how the roulette situation is, so i don't think it should be in the selling section. Since what i said here, is more useful than all the threads of the forum put togheter.

Quotehappens if we start playing knowing of a situation of sigma 6 (for example) in place? Happens that we play with a favorable wind. We have an advantage. We know that, FOR SURE, the number, or group of numbers with sigma 6 will need to show up in order to reduce its value. As i said, in rare occasion the value can temporarily go to higher values, but in the end will always go down. It's a rule of math, it's a rule of nature. You can bet your life on that and test as much as you want, the sigma will always tend to lower values.

this part is a diamond in a ocean of trash.
And your prevented comment makes me think that a lot of people will continue wasting their time with naive reasoning. The joy of coming here, a kind of second "home" for roulette addicted (or passionate, to use a soft, disillusioned, word) to meet people and discuss about methods without any solid foundations, it's better than quit, or trying to improve the own knowledge. I guess being ignorant about math, statistic and probabilities gives enough space to keep dreaming that one day a random method without any concrete logic behind will do the trick.

6th-sense

best for you to go on rs simulator and do a load of games then show people proof..that would nail it..so they don,t wonder why if its so good why are you selling it...

hope this suggestion helps

outsider

Thanks for the intention to help. About the silly question that always is put on the plate (legitimately) why to sell and bla bla bla... i have been clear: Marigny's method, or the more precise one with the standard deviation are not too far from a job. And i already had more than enough of it. So, to me, as i have already done last year (in the selling section of the forum), is more convenient to make deals with people.

To stick on topic, i want to remind that Marigny's methodology is pretty much public. "Le gain scientifique d'une seule unité sur toute figure sélectionnée à la Roulette", plus, what i said in my first post here about the standard deviation can be EASLY verified by any moderately competent guy on the matter. There is no need to add anything else from my side. In other words, everyone has their chance to study, learn, try, make something good.

Oh, since you mentioned it, i want to give a little tip to all the theorists: rs simulator or any other RNG cannot be taken as a reliable reference point. They are softwares, not a real roulette. Don't want to enter too much in details, but every experienced pro will confirm that is not the same thing.

TRD


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