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Started by Johnlegend, Apr 08, 05:46 PM 2011

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Tinsoldiers

Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Feb 12, 10:34 AM 2018
Taking a very cautious approach as it involves good money. Played 3 games in total today. All won. Stats at the end of day 2. At william hill lost 2 pounds unnecesarily when opening the application and dropped two pounds on the table  >:(. Now will use the other two accounts as well, which will make it 5 casinos in total.
Am on day 9 now. I have started betting £15 in ladbrokes and £5 in other casinos as base bet. I currently play in 7 casinos in total and 7 games a day. I have played a total of 51 games in total. Summary of results so far is:



For anyone wanting to know the details of games played, it is below. I had a terrible day yesterday, otherwise a decent run so far.

Ricky

Quote from: cht on Feb 17, 08:51 PM 2018The idea is to place bets on frequency distribution that's skewed high and don't place bets on negative skews. Progression per se may give less losing sessions since they are designed to circumvent variance but they not necessarily give optimised outcomes.

If the win rate is on the high end, you might want to look at the calculated potential max losing streak to right size your br and use half kelly equation.
Hi CHT,
I know what you are trying to do and it is a very valid thing to maximize the return on your bets. Its like the argument whether you cover zero or not. I was always one to cover zero because it gives you that bonus payout if it hits at the right time. But then you have to calculate all the times it does not hit and that is lost winnings or worsens your losses. So now I am leaving it for the last bet or a relatively high risk bet (say covering dozens/columns).
The argument against using negative progressions should be considered. But having a BRAKE on a losing proposition is very important. This is why we limit the progression and incorporate stop/losses.
I have an option in my system I use to allow for the option you are sugggesting. Its actually called a virtual bet. My system actually does what you are suggesting if enabled. It keeps an average of the number of spins taken to get a win. Say on average a method is taking 2 spins to win. If the progression is 3 or more then in some methods I skip the first n spins and start betting on the average. So I would bet on the 2nd spin in this case. If a method was winning on the 4th spin on average then it would skip the first 3 spins and only bet on the 4th and more steps if the progression went higher. I have two methods called "lines" and "corners" which look at the 6 line and corner bets. It places a bet on the corner or line of the last number spun and keeps doing this with a marty progression until it gets a win or gets to the maximum progression allowed causing a loss. Over time the average number of spins to a win is calculated and the system then starts virtual betting for the first few spins until it gets a list of numbers it can cover on the sweet spot of where most wins come. This way it maximizes its wins by covering more of the numbers without losing the initial bets. Although sometimes it would miss wins and sometimes it would lose completely. So I think this is the sort of thing you are thinking of.

The question with PB is where is the sweet spot. I guess it all depends on what mood random is feeling on a given day.

Cheers,
Ricky

sentinel3

Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Feb 19, 07:55 AM 2018
Am on day 9 now. I have started betting £15 in ladbrokes and £5 in other casinos as base bet. I currently play in 7 casinos in total and 7 games a day. I have played a total of 51 games in total. Summary of results so far is:



For anyone wanting to know the details of games played, it is below. I had a terrible day yesterday, otherwise a decent run so far.

My advice TS is take your two strongest sites. Ladbrokes and Coral. And alternate between the two of them. I recently had a streak of 54 in a row bouncing between Ladbrokes and Betway. Have never been too successful myself on BET365.

But Ladbrokes and Betway. I get excellent winning streaks on them.

sentinel3

Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Feb 19, 07:55 AM 2018
Am on day 9 now. I have started betting £15 in ladbrokes and £5 in other casinos as base bet. I currently play in 7 casinos in total and 7 games a day. I have played a total of 51 games in total. Summary of results so far is:



For anyone wanting to know the details of games played, it is below. I had a terrible day yesterday, otherwise a decent run so far.

One other thing TS whenever you get a perfect storm 7 patterns in 21 spins. At least double up on the bet against pattern 8. And cover the zero on each step. Its one of the safest bets in all of roulette. Best to take full advantage of them.

Tinsoldiers

Quote from: sentinel3 on Feb 19, 08:20 AM 2018My advice TS is take your two strongest sites. Ladbrokes and Coral. And alternate between the two of them.
But I thought you play upto a maximum of 10 games and never play in the same casino twice in a day. Is this not true?

Quote from: sentinel3 on Feb 19, 08:48 AM 2018Its one of the safest bets in all of roulette.
Will track this for some more time before taking a plunge. At this point in time my aim is to reach 200 to 300 games as you suggested and see how this is holding up. I will use the data to take on board other advices provided. Thanks a lot for commenting.

sentinel3

Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Feb 19, 08:55 AM 2018
But I thought you play upto a maximum of 10 games and never play in the same casino twice in a day. Is this not true?
Will track this for some more time before taking a plunge. At this point in time my aim is to reach 200 to 300 games as you suggested and see how this is holding up. I will use the data to take on board other advices provided. Thanks a lot for commenting.
Yes TS usually I rotate. And I average 14 wins to every loss that way.

But i was thinking recently. Ladbrokes hardly EVER loses for PB. And neither does Betway. So I did an experiment. And bounced back and forth with just those two sites. And the result was an alltime record streak of 54 games. That finally lost on Betway on Saturday.

So that might be worth a try for you too. Especially since Ladbrokes and Coral are connected under the same system. Bet365 I have a dislike for and hardly ever use them.


cht

Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Feb 19, 07:55 AM 2018
Am on day 9 now. I have started betting £15 in ladbrokes and £5 in other casinos as base bet. I currently play in 7 casinos in total and 7 games a day. I have played a total of 51 games in total. Summary of results so far is:



For anyone wanting to know the details of games played, it is below. I had a terrible day yesterday, otherwise a decent run so far.

Omit qualifying bets after 30spins.

sentinel3

Quote from: cht on Feb 19, 09:27 AM 2018
Omit qualifying bets after 30spins.
You have a point there Cht. Ive lost very few games that qualified IN THE TWENTIES. Very good point. You would need more patience to do this. But your strikerate would go through the roof.

Its ALWAYS THE SAME Cht. Those with the most patience will have the greater success..

Tinsoldiers

Quote from: sentinel3 on Feb 19, 09:20 AM 2018
So that might be worth a try for you too.
Thanks for your suggestions sentinel and cht. To be honest, I don’t want to be making new rules as I play further and further. I would like to play at least 200 games before I incorporate new rules. We talk about discipline and here we are trying to change them only after few games. 14-1 is still good for me. I would try 200 games with this rule before incorproating all the comments. AS EVERYONE LOVES TO SAY HERE - discipline.

sentinel3

Quote from: Tinsoldiers on Feb 19, 09:40 AM 2018
Thanks for your suggestions sentinel and cht. To be honest, I don’t want to be making new rules as I play further and further. I would like to play at least 200 games before I incorporate new rules. We talk about discipline and here we are trying to change them only after few games. 14-1 is still good for me. I would try 200 games with this rule before incorproating all the comments. AS EVERYONE LOVES TO SAY HERE - discipline.
Okay TS. Dont want to get anyone overexcited. But I think CHT may have just put the final piece in the puzzle to turn PBR into a virtual HG. Ive been over my last 200 games. 55 of them qualified 21--27. ONLY 🛑ONE LOSS🛑 HE WHO CAN WAIT WILL WIN. Ive been saying this for years.

atlantis

I think something in what sentinel3 ; cht says.  With the early qualifiers 20-40 spins I noticed or it seemed to be you can get more first game winners. (When testing with my console program one of the 9 patterns I was tracking only qualified after a long wait of 96 spins! The last remaining pattern then proceeded to come out immediately in the following 3 spins, which of course would have been a LOSER)
Thru the darkness of Future Past the magician longs to see. One chants out between two worlds:
"Fire -- Walk with me!"

atlantis

Oops sorry should have said early qualifiers 21-30 spins
Thru the darkness of Future Past the magician longs to see. One chants out between two worlds:
"Fire -- Walk with me!"

Winner

Quote from: sentinel3 on Feb 19, 09:31 AM 2018
You have a point there Cht. Ive lost very few games that qualified IN THE TWENTIES. Very good point. You would need more patience to do this. But your strikerate would go through the roof.

Its ALWAYS THE SAME Cht. Those with the most patience will have the greater success..
If this the case where most wins are in that time frame bet on the  PB then continue to bet for it to lose until it shows up..then start the process over I'm sure you'll get more wins this way . With your basic PB your only winning one unit at a time you will be Subject to a loss that can eat up your profits. My 2 bits. Ps John we share the same birthday  07/19

sentinel3

Quote from: atlantis on Feb 19, 10:36 AM 2018
I think something in what sentinel3 ; cht says.  With the early qualifiers 20-40 spins I noticed or it seemed to be you can get more first game winners. (When testing with my console program one of the 9 patterns I was tracking only qualified after a long wait of 96 spins! The last remaining pattern then proceeded to come out immediately in the following 3 spins, which of course would have been a LOSER)
Yes Atlantis. Ive known for a while that more wins come inside 30 spins. But it is the old trade off. BETTING OPPORTUNITIES VS SAFETY.

You would have to be prepared to wait HOURS sometimes in a REAL casino. The way to force a short game is to keep retracking every 10 spins. Until you eventually get that sub 30 spin qualifier.

Any prepared to do this will take PBR to a different level. The strikerate will be concrete over 20--1. Who has that patience thats always the question.

It separates the winners from the losers. Always has, always will.

cht

Quote from: sentinel3 on Feb 19, 10:54 AM 2018
Yes Atlantis. Ive known for a while that more wins come inside 30 spins. But it is the old trade off. BETTING OPPORTUNITIES VS SAFETY.

You would have to be prepared to wait HOURS sometimes in a REAL casino. The way to force a short game is to keep retracking every 10 spins. Until you eventually get that sub 30 spin qualifier.

Any prepared to do this will take PBR to a different level. The strikerate will be concrete over 20--1. Who has that patience thats always the question.

It separates the winners from the losers. Always has, always will.
For b&m casino, play at the etg dual roulette machines. Switch between the 2 wheels tracking rolling basis from the 10 history spins.

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