AAIC betting system

[LuckyLucy]

Ok I am going to answer my own question (since no one else will.)  to adapt this system to baccarat, where my minimum bet has to be $20 and I have to increase or decrease bets in $5 increments, to bet range eleven I will write down the numbers 4 (x5=$20) to 24 (last bet is $120), and my starting bet will be at 14 which means 14 x 5= $70.  betting banker only, if in 20 hands I win 10 bets and lose 10 bets (which is likely) this system will deliver a profit.  now what can't happen is that I lose more than 11 bets than I won or I will lose the bankroll required which in this case totals $1470 (20+25+30.... up to 120.)

could someone answer the following question?-- does that mean that:

if I have already lost 10 bets (won 10/lost 10), I cannot lose even one more bet (total 10 bets won and 11 bets lost to bust-out), OR does it mean that I would have to lose 11 more bets to bust out (total 21 bets lost, 10 bets won to lose)?

if my bankroll busts by winning 10 and losing 11 then the system is worthless.  if the bankroll busts by winning 10 and losing 21 then I am not quite ready to give up on this system, because the banker bet has a positive mathematical expectation over the player bet, thus the system could possibly be utilized for betting on banker only.

I don't know enough about this syst3m to know. Although I'm sure this progression has a lot of promise. Good luck

[Red Nickels]

I don't know enough about this syst3m to know. Although I'm sure this progression has a lot of promise. Good luck

........ that's weird because it looked like you were the one testing it in this thread.  well I was just looking for a quick answer but obviously the only way to find out was to check it myself what would would happen which I did.  in a typical series of 10 bankers and 10 players interspersed within 20 hands, including some chops and runs on both sides, just randomly picked, I came out +$50 (without calculating in the 5% commissions-- yet) and the next bet if I lost (a bet of $65) would obviously not deplete the entire bankroll, in fact if I lost the next 10 bets in a row it would not deplete the bankroll required for range 11 (4 to 24, startig at 14/$70).  I will be testing this system more for my "banker only" bet.

[LuckyLucy]

Hi 
Yes I did do 3 tests.2 positive one negative.  O am new to roulette though and nothing about baccara so don't feel knowledgable enough to comment. Will be interested to see how you do. Good luck.

Lucy

[Red Nickels]

Baccarat is one of the easiest games in the casino to play and it is one of the best games in the casino to play because of the low house edge.  if you do some basic research on the game you will find all the stats and why the banker bet has a slight edge over the player bet.  you do not even need to understand the rules if you play mini-bac as the dealer will handle all the cards, all you have to do is bet banker or player (or tie-- which won't affect your bet on banker or player.)

here is how this range system worked on the following 20 outcomes with 10 bankers and 10 players:

B P B P P P B B P B B P B P B B B P P P

to convert playing this system to a starting bet of $20 with $5 bet increments up or down as would be required when playing baccarat, for range 11 you would start at 4/20, 5/25, 6/30 etc. on up to 24/120 and the starting bet is 14/70 and the total bankroll required to stay in the game is $1470.  anotherwords the number to the left of the slash is where we go up or down if we win or lose the bet (down one if we win, up one if we lose), multiplied by 5 which equals the actual dollar amount to be bet which is on the right side of the slash.

you would lose the $1420 if you went all the way down to the minimum bet 4/$20 due to several wins in a row, and then lost the next 21 bets in a row.  but I have not researched and tested the system enough to know if that is the only way to lose it all (probably not.)

so playing the above typical run of 20 outcomes, would go as follows, betting on banker every hand, showing decision, bet amount called for in dollars won or lost on left side of slash, and running total on right side of slash, and commission owed in parens:

B +70/70 (-3.50)

P -65/5

B +70/75 (-3.50)

P -65/10

P -70/-60

P -75/-135

B +80/-55 (-4)

B +75/20 (-3.75)

P -70/-50

B +75/25

B +70/95 (-3.50)

P -65/30

B +70/100 (-3.50)

P -65/35

B +70/105 (-3.50)

B +65/170 (-3.25)

B +60/230 (-3.00)

P -55/175

P -60/115

P -65/50

so we end at +$50 but commissions totaled $28.50 (ouch!) so actual profit would only be $21.50.  actually it might be better to bet on player only since the banker bet advantage over player is minimal (about 1%).  (For every thousand hands, Banker is expected to win 459 and Player 446. The other 95 are Ties.)  or you could use a pattern bet selection if you think it will do you any good-- there are endless baccarat systems based on patterns-- just like roulette-- but my opinion is that it's better to let random come to you than to try and chase random (anotherwords just bet one side of an even chance, to get the expected percentage of bets that will be won and lost.)

anyway, at this point our next bet on banker or whatever we decide to bet on would be $70, so we are back at our midway bet and if we were to lose this bet and the next 10 bets in a row we would lose the rest of our bets which would be a $1045 loss (not good!).  well just thinking out loud.

it would be great to find someone who could write algorithms and program the system to see how often it would be expected to bust out vs accumulated profits, etc.  and ofcourse it could be tweaked to establish win-goals and stop losses etc.  so there it is, in case anyone's interested in pursuing this further...

[Red Nickels]

PS-- this thread is not about Bet Selection and I feel it should be moved to the Full Systems section or the Money Management section.  Because this is a money management system for betting on the even chances.

also I would mention 2 more things--

1) even if the bet minimum is $20, you are allowed-- at least where I can play-- to bet both on banker and player at the same time!  this is very good, because if you really only want to place a $5 bet on banker or player, you have only to bet $25 on the side you want to back, and $20 on the side you don't want to  back, and unlike roulette, you cannot lose both bets (so I can rework my units to dollars conversion and make smaller bets.)

2)  I also found out that my closest casino now has no commission baccarat!  that is good news too.  so why not bet banker every time?  because if the cards come up a certain way, you will not lose but you will not get paid for your winning banker bet-- and this only happens a couple times per shoe (and they have added a side "dragon bet" that pays 40 to 1! if the cards come up a certain way.)