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The Perfect Graph

Started by woods101, Jul 01, 02:52 PM 2011

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woods101

Random thoughts on graph displays of profit/loss from a program say- RX ...

What are we looking for when looking at a graph? Obv +/- but also biggest drawdown, amount of spins/time etc-sure. But what would the perfect graph look like? Would we be able to recognise it if we saw it?

It is fair to say (it out loud!) that most of us here, quietly accept, or at least entertain that, from a traditional mathematical point of view, roulette is a loser in the longterm. No mathematician trading under that name would ever contradict the above statement for all the reasons we already know, yet, when testing a system do you find yourself always looking for that perfect profit line, slowly rising to the right of the page or squiggling its way towards the top right hand corner?
A good system must overcome the negative outcomes in order to become a profitable system
surely?
...so...Is it possible to accept the fact that, the longer you play, the more you will lose, but still make a profit also?

Ok.

So what would it look like?
The profit/time line is going to be/would have to be sloping down towards the bottom right corner of the page to reflect the mathematical beliefs surely? ...which begs the question how would you profit from this?
Well you've got to have your ups as well as your downs so to win you need your ups to be longer than your downs so I'm thinking....
So....What if your downs were really steep (maybe near vertical!)....and your ups were, i guess sloping and long -maybe be a nice 30/40 degree angle ( :) ) , (but progressively the whole graph would be dropping lower though). Mmmmm...

Just thinking aloud here but to me, I visualise the 'longterm' (1000s') of spins shape very similiar to that of, for example, a profile view of the Sydney Opera House, where the line of the graph arcs up in a curve to the right, only to eventually level and then drop to a lower (lot deeper) original point, then rise and level, and then drop to a lower (deeper still!) original point, etc. (obviously this is too perfect and it would be uneven with fluctuations/deviations etc).

The reason this seems good to me? I'm thinking that playing the right profit and loss stop points, then the more vertical the drop (ie the more obvious) the quicker you jump off maybe?
...and/or.. they would be shorter lived and could be avoided more through playing hit and run?

...so...taking the hit and run approach then this would seem ideal no? -Enter the game randomly (as you do) and if hit with an immediate loss then jump out? If the drop section of the graph was say,  a tiny 2% wide in ratio to an adjacent steady curve upwards then would we avoid these drops more playing hit and run, and also know when it's a losing point quickly and be able to avoid doom scenarios and heavy destructive losses?

To me, this would meet all beliefs. To me this would be the most near to perfect graph I can imagine?
Now to find a way of creating it!

How does this sound?
What are your thoughts?
Apologies also if this has been discussed before and I'm re-hashing old ground!

Thanks
Woods

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