Dynamic Differential Betting

[Colbster]

Here is a money management idea that I have had in the past couple weeks while testing in some other areas - figured I would put it out for the community.

If you find a method that tends to perform evenly, with wins and losses appearing but not dominating, it could be a very profitable staking method.

Take whatever your betting method is and start two separate d'Alembert progressions on a spreadsheet or sheet of paper.  One is for your method to win, one is for your method to lose.  The d'Alembert always returns a +1 for a win, because you always win at your highest betting amount.  For instance, your win of 5 units is always in response to a loss of 4 units, therefore +1.  As you win on one progression, you are losing on the other.  However, unless you go out on a tear of 10 straight wins on one side of your progression, you will have wins and losses on both sides, with the numbers growing and shrinking in waves.

Since we are playing the differential of the two progressions, our units will stay a little smaller than with other systems.  For instance, if you are betting 8 on the "lose" progression and 2 on the "win" progression, you actually just bet 6 on "lose".  Note: this method is only for the ECs.

I recommend a session bankroll of 190 units.  This is because a d'Alembert losing at level 20 is a total loss of 210 units.  Since we are offsetting this -210 by 20 wins on the other portion of the system, our maximum risk is 190 (210-20) units.

You play until either your "wins" or "losses" progression ends up losing at the 10 unit level.  This is where the dynamic betting comes in.  That occurance says that one side of our equation is winning more than expected, with the other side losing more than expected.  At this point, we simply swap progressions.  If our "win" progression is at level 1 and our "lose" progression loses at level 10, our "win" is now at 10 and our "lose" is now at 1.  If the trend continues, our gradual advantage to the "win" side will bring our 10 down towards 1, with wins on both sides of the equation all along.  If at any point the 10 becomes 1, we swap them back and continue on doing so as long as we like.

If you are at a net plus, or at break even, when one side loses at level 10, take your wins and reset both sides of the progressions with a little more coin in your pocket than when you started.  Because this tends to ride up and down, we benefit from wins on both sides from the d'Alembert progression.

Tweaks and comments appreciated and encouraged!

[amk]

Amazing Colbster,

I feel I have seen random at work with the development of roulette methods/approaches. There are long periods with little evolution, then a wave happens were many profound methods appear/overlap at the same time. We are definitely in one of those peaks and the odds are in our favor that one or several are indeed successful.

At the moment there are a lot of new concepts/methods being released with such insight it is amazing. I have studied roulette for a year now and this is the first time that I feel I cannot assimilate it all at once. I would say that this has been the case over the last month. This is good though The game is really evolving and great opportunities are there.

[Colbster]

I tested it to see when it finally cracked.  After 448 spins, it collapsed with a +14 unit ending total.  However, it saw a high of +178 at one point.  Need some profit taking rules in place, but I like losing with a positive balance.

I used a terrible bet selection method on purpose to see how it would work on one of my crazy creations that I reject outright.  One thing I am GREAT at is coming up with ways to consistently lose!  This works with that.

[Proofreaders2000]

"...crazy creations that I reject outright."-Colbster

"crazy creations"?  You should have seen me when I first started!
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"One thing I am GREAT at is coming up with ways to consistently lose!"

Stay encouraged, for all we know the Grail is right under our noses   

[Tomla021]

I have been working on something like this also for awhile but with some changes. One was a modified d'alembert, 50, 60,70,80 etc . Another thing I was trying was the 123456 system...  50,60,70 80 up on a win or a loss till ahead ,,,---I was trying not using differentials but for team play. 2 players , 2 opposite systems (Should work out the same doing the calculations with one player).....Shows promise but its grueling as i am a pen and paper tester

[Colbster]

Don't lose sight of the changing of progressions in all of this.  When we swap progressions when one is clearly outperforming the other, we can take advantage of medium- to long-term trends that will maximize our profits.

[Tomla021]

I have thought about this a lot (many headaches-lol as Im not a computer guy or a math guy). Many variations have popped into my head.  (remember two players) One was when  if one is winning and the other is deep into the progression the winning player might start parlaying or accelerating his wins while the losing player tries to dig out which will usually happen with the 123456 -up a unit on a win or loss till ahead... Im still at the getting more headaches than progress stage but It is a very interesting concept in general---And heck a 14 unit win on a bust out is pretty darn good in any gambling idea

[Colbster]

Just as an example of how powerful this idea can be with poor bet selection, I have been playing around with an idea that was sent to me this week that has been a net loser: when you have a majority of the last 4 spins on one side of the EC, bet in that direction.  Very easy to track, which is nice is a system, but it ended up losing in my tests.

I have played three sessions now, using the dynamic differential betting, with results so far of +75, +75, and +81.  Some of it has been intuitive, which I don't like.  I need to firm up the rules of getting out.  Also, my swapping of progressions has been a little disorderly.  However, when one side of the progression is running up (a bad thing), switching it to the other side has brought it back down in every case (a good thing). 

Remember that we win 1 unit on every single bet we make, provided we don't bust out.  As I mentioned earlier, if we extend that long enough, we are positive even when we do bust out.  I like the idea of playing for moderate wins and resetting.  I should be more precise about this, but for now, I am enjoying the returns.

[Tomla021]

Fascinating stuff....how often in general do you get to the 10th step?

[Colbster]

I get to the 10th level all the time.  That is not a cause for concern at all.  With a single good streak of repeats, HHHHHHHHHHHHH, for instance, we have 10 wins on the "win" progression and 10 losses on "lose" progression.  Even in regular play without strongs streaks, one side or the other will become dominant.  Over the course of 100 or so spins, this regularly manifests as 55-45 distribution, or something similar.  This 10 spin difference causes one side of the differential betting to rise to level 10.  That is when I do the swap of the two progressions. 

At this point, one side of the progression is down a maximum of 55 units (1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10).  However, during this time, even the losing side of the progression has had some wins which lessen the 55 and the winning side of the progression is positive some amount, which also helps mitigate the loss of the 55.  Playing with the bet selection method I mentioned in the earlier post, by the time we get to losing at level 10, we will have made near, or frequently more than, 55 units.  Our losses at this point are very slight, and we may actually even be at a positive balance here.  When we are, I suggest taking the profit and starting over. 

If you choose to stay in, swap the progressions and let the side that has been the dominant side win back some of what the weaker side has lost up to this point.  You will regularly see one side so dominant that you can swap several times and it keeps drawing down the losses, resulting in strong, consistent profits.

I think that I am settling in on swapping when one side has reached a loss at level 10, and again when the side that received the 10 has moved up and lost at level 15.  To me, this is an evidence of a change in the trend that means we should be able to recover nicely on what used to be the weak side, but what is now the stronger side of the ledger.

The perfect place to be is when you are getting lots of chops with one side at 8 or 9 and the other side at 9 or 10.  This equilibrium means you are making a lot of money.  Obviously, there are moments when you might want to play a hunch and swap the progressions because you feel that one side is trending down when you are getting too high in the progression.  This is clearly up to you, and can be easily done on a whim as you see fit.  This system offers lots of flexibility.

[Colbster]

I have received a few requests for a copy of my spreadsheet.  I have attached the blank sheet here.  I also have had requests for examples.  I will attach a session here in short order. 

Spins are entered into row 1, beginning at A1.  By D4, you will start getting bet selection in row 4.  The two yellow rows are the d'Alembert progression formulas.  The top is the "winning" progression that expects your next bet to be the same as the row 4 indicator.  The bottom is the "losing" progression that expects your next bet to be the opposite as the the row 4 indicator.  These two numbers will change throughout the session.  If the "winning" number is 6 and the "losing" number is 2, you will bet 4 on "winning", meaning you will bet the same way as row 4 (either "H"igh or "L"ow).  When you have lost at level 10 (which you will know is the case when you have 11 in the next bet of your progression), manually enter the progression amounts over each other.  For instance, if at AD7, your progression says 11 and at AD11 your progression says 1, you will type 1 over the formula at AD7 and 11 over the formula at AD11.  All the other cells will be corrected on their own.  This swap can be manually done as many times as is necessary.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Don't save the spreadsheet with the swap in place or it will be incorrect later when you reopen it.  I suggest saving a blank copy to open each session and choosing "no" to save changes when closing.

Row 14 is your running session bankroll.  As I have mentioned before, I play with a session bankroll of 190 units which takes me to a maximum loss at level 20.  Read other posts for more details on my experiences so far with the MM aspect of this.

[Colbster]

Here is a 200-spin example of my play method.  Results for 200 spins: 129 total bets placed, 69 losses, 60 wins.  Total profit from this losing session: +71 units.

Notes for this session:

There are times when both progressions are both in profit at the same time - NICE!

Even though the "winning" progression started off stronger, it eventually sputtered and fell behind, losing at level 10 at BG7.  At that point in time, I swapped the progressions to take advantage of the relatively stronger "losing" progression results.

The "losing" progression sputtered a little itself.  If I had lost at CN11 instead of winning, I probably would have swapped the progressions again at that time.  Instead, that was the turn-around spot that gradually recovered to level 7.

For most of the rest of the session, the ebb and flow of the "winning" and "losing" progressions was mild.  We made a lot of units during the soft chops that we experienced.

There were 109 spins between the session low and the session-ending high.  Usually, the lowest points are those around where we swap the progressions.

I hope this clarifies my testing methods.  If anyone has any ideas how to optimize, or better MM rules for entry or exit, please add to the discussion.

[Colbster]

Just an FYI on the spreadsheet I posted - if you slide along the yellow row 7, there should be nothing but 1's before you enter spins.  If you find any that are not, that is where I manually swapped progressions and it needs to be fixed.  On any cell that is correct, hit CTRL+C and move over the cell that is 11 instead of 1.  Hit CTRL+V to correct it.  The same will need to be done in the other yellow row where the cell says 1 instead of whatever the next number in the series should be.  Once you correct this, save the spreadsheet and there should be no problems at all in the future.

Sorry for the oversight!

Colby

[Nickmsi]

Thanks Colby for the spreadsheets . . . I am a nuts and bolts type and need to see everything in order to understand it properly.

Just to clarify, if I wanted to play just the straight (normal) d'alembert progression, I would simply use the bet amounts shown in yellow at row #7 with the results being shown in row #8?

Under this method, you would bet BOTH the amount shown in yellow row#7 to win the bet and the amount shown in yellow row# 11 to lose the bet.

Or you could bet the difference between the two yellow lines and bet only ONE of the yellow lines, whichever has the net difference so sometimes you would bet to win and sometimes bet to lose.

Whenever either yellow line reaches 10 (or some other predetermined amount) you simply swap the amounts to be bet?

Thanks for the clarifications . . . Nick

[Colbster]

You are correct in all your explanations, Nick. 

Yes, the straight d'Alembert is the upper set of numbers, with row 7 being the progression and row 8 being the running bankroll.

Differential betting specifically refers to when one progression (never flat-betting) offsets another competing progression of some sort.  There is no reason to play both sides, as they cancel each other out.  You only ever need to play the difference, qed "differential", between the two sides.  The only exception to this I can even imagine is if you are trying to qualify for some bonus or something where you might get credit for how much you bet across the table.  I'm not a fan at all of the bonus programs of casinos, but I know that some here are.

Finally, yes, simply swap the progressions.  When I am tracking on my spreadsheet and I get a loss that now shows the next bet in that progression as 11, I type directly over the 11 and the 1 to override the formulas in the spreadsheet.  1 becomes 11, 11 becomes 1.  Later, if you choose to switch the progressions back based on the developments of the session, it may be with different numbers, but the first swap is always 11 and 1.

Hope this helps and you find this method as robust as I am.

Colby