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Dynamic Differential Betting

Started by Colbster, Feb 01, 04:39 PM 2012

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0 Members and 3 Guests are viewing this topic.

vladir

Yeah, a single zero can completly kill this system.  French roullete is also good, the 0 losses are halved, and its where I play this.

And how do you play this in BV no zero table? I couldnt do it!It says that the bets can't be mutual exclusive lol . How you do it?

By the way, has anyone tougth about a way to cover 0?

Cheers
"In God we trust; all others must bring data", W. Edwards Deming

Colbster

You don't play both sides. You play the larger side of the differential bet less the smaller side. If you are at 8 on winning line and 2 on losing line, you bet 6 on winning and 0 on losing.

Robeenhuut

Quote from: Colbster on Feb 16, 08:57 PM 2012
You don't play both sides. You play the larger side of the differential bet less the smaller side. If you are at 8 on winning line and 2 on losing line, you bet 6 on winning and 0 on losing.

Hello

Yeah of course you don't bet on both sides but playing such a long sessions it would be advisable to cover 0. I would never play long sessions without covering 0 if my betting would allow it.
Got burned before  i guess like everybody else. Few days ago got 3 0's in 10 spins.
But sometimes you just have to take more risks.

Regards
Matt

Colbster

I'm sorry for not posting much lately.  I have been tied up with sicknesses and injuries among my employees at work, so I have been wearing a lot of different hats, very few of them related to roulette.  I wanted to post an example of a session that I just completed as an example of just how resilient this method that I have proposed really is.  I have had several write to me, both publicly and privately, concerned that the drawdowns are just too steep and that this method cannot hold up under such pressure.

I am attaching the actual spins (Note: this is the very next game I have played after my last post, despite the time that has elapsed since my last update.  This is not me cherry picking a good example out of several bad runs) with the following stats:

Total wins: +201 units
Total spins to reach +200 units: 205
Total spins to reach +100 units: 114

Lowest B/R balance for the session: -5 on my 4th bet (After this spin, the next 200 spins were in positive territory)

Largest drawdowns from peak:
56 units (Took just 9 spins to reach a new peak)
56 units (Took just 6 spins to reach a new peak)
53 units (Took just 7 spins to reach a new peak)

The very reason that people don't trust this system is the very strength of this system.  When we have a drawdown, it is because one side of a differential is taking over.  By swapping the progressions when this happens, we now put the higher bets on the side that has shown the strength.  In this session, all three ECs demonstrate a preference to one side of the equation eventually.  This is exactly the point behind my method, and I think that this session should give a lot of confidence to people who are thinking about giving it a whirl.

Colbster

Here is a graph of my bankroll during the last posted session for quick review.  Higher highs and higher lows show this is trending well in our favor.  I would love to be the guy that buys a stock with this growth chart beginning at 0, which is exactly what I did with this session.



jarabo002

Thanks for this amazing system. I have proving something similar with two laboucheres at the same time with red and blacks appling a differential betting with the help of a laby sofware i have found in this forum.

Code or software its needed. 8)
Uno de Badajoz que pasaba por aquí.

Colbster

Here is another interesting example, and again, the next one in sequence.

Total spins:  181
Total units won: +201
Spins to +100: 111

Lowest point: -19

I spent a total of 44 spins at the beginning at 0 or negative, and even after breaking above even, fell back into negative briefly.  However, by 111 spins in, I had won over 100 units.  Only two of the three ECs got far enough into the progression to swap progressions, but one of them (E/O) had a strong enough trend that I actually switched it twice.  The max drawdown on this session was only 39 units, and it had recovered to a new session peak within 7 spins of that drawdown.

Again, I have attached a chart of the winning session below.

amk

Forgive me Colbster,

I have not kept up with your method and have to start again from scratch really.

Am I correct in saying that WWWWWWWWWWLLLLLLLLLL is the only losing sequence or alterations of the same WL streaks back and forth?

Really like this approach and should be the key I think although maybe not perfected. As you mention you jump ship to the winning trend and things correct themselves.

Colbster

Yes, a strong winning trend, followed immediately by a strong losing trend is the demise of this system.  Chops are perfect, as are gradual trends for and against.  It has to be pretty severe to make it bust at a loss.  As I mentioned before, there are times where you can bust and still be up because enough chops have come to make you positive before the strong trends.

Robeenhuut

Quote from: Colbster on Feb 20, 08:53 PM 2012
Yes, a strong winning trend, followed immediately by a strong losing trend is the demise of this system.  Chops are perfect, as are gradual trends for and against.  It has to be pretty severe to make it bust at a loss.  As I mentioned before, there are times where you can bust and still be up because enough chops have come to make you positive before the strong trends.

Hello Cobster

What do you consider a bust?
Do you still play it certain number of spins or you stop if you reach your win target?    Do you evaluate all 3 ECs separately?

Regards
Matt

Colbster

I consider a bust a loss at level 20. 

I do not evaluate the ECs for bankroll or return individually, but only evaluate them at a bust of one.  If the others are still strong, I will continue a session with just those two ECs with the hope/expectation that they will further offset the loss from the poor-performing EC.   Each EC acts very independently.  The weakest by far for a couple games will end up being the champion of the next.

I have been trying to squeeze manual testing sessions in wherever possible.  For this purpose, I have been playing most recently with a goal of +200 units total.  As you see in the past few posts, this takes me around 200 spins.  As soon as the session takes off, it is very rare not to be in a positive, even after a bust in one EC.  You can pretty much quit when you are finished winning, bored, need to pee, etc.  I will note that when we successfully swap a progression, the optimum time to quit on that EC is when they have reacquired equilibrium.  If we swap an 1 and 11, the 11 loses a couple more times right out of the gate and grows to 14-1, I will quit when they get around 7-7, 7-8, 8-7, somewhere in there.  If it is a super strong trend, I might let that 11-1 move back to 1-11 and swap again.  It is very subjective.

Robeenhuut

Quote from: Colbster on Feb 21, 06:47 AM 2012
I consider a bust a loss at level 20. 

I do not evaluate the ECs for bankroll or return individually, but only evaluate them at a bust of one.  If the others are still strong, I will continue a session with just those two ECs with the hope/expectation that they will further offset the loss from the poor-performing EC.   Each EC acts very independently.  The weakest by far for a couple games will end up being the champion of the next.

I have been trying to squeeze manual testing sessions in wherever possible.  For this purpose, I have been playing most recently with a goal of +200 units total.  As you see in the past few posts, this takes me around 200 spins.  As soon as the session takes off, it is very rare not to be in a positive, even after a bust in one EC.  You can pretty much quit when you are finished winning, bored, need to pee, etc.  I will note that when we successfully swap a progression, the optimum time to quit on that EC is when they have reacquired equilibrium.  If we swap an 1 and 11, the 11 loses a couple more times right out of the gate and grows to 14-1, I will quit when they get around 7-7, 7-8, 8-7, somewhere in there.  If it is a super strong trend, I might let that 11-1 move back to 1-11 and swap again.  It is very subjective.

Hello Colbster

I play on airball machine and its not much time to place bets at the beginning.  You really have to be prepared or change casino  ^-^
Some tracker would be good.

Regards
Matt

Colbster

That would be ideal, although I don't have the necessary skills to create one.  I have had a couple guys ask for clarification of my play method for the purpose of botting and tracking, but I haven't seen anything functional from anyone yet.  I hope to see something for this, as the results have pleased me very much so far.

Colbster

Here are some more results.  First, I had a losing session, although since I was not at my home computer, I don't have graphs or the stats in front of me.  Grand total was a loss of about 76 units, but that could have gone 1 or 2 units either way.  Not trying to sugar-coat it, just don't have the session saved.

This next session was at home, though, with the results as follows:
Total spins: 174
Total units won: 206
Total spins to +100: 99
Lowest BR of the session: -25
Largest drawdown of the session: 43 (6 spins later, we reached a new peak)

I did have a thought on a money-management tweak.  I have been playing until a bust at level 20.  If we do not meet our win goal before we lose at level 15 (I have been playing more-or-less to +200 per session), I suggest we end a session immediately if we have any positive balance.  I have seen where we poke our heads up to a small win on our way to busting out.  As I mentioned earlier, I lost around 76 units after a bust.  The spins from levels 16 through 20 on that particular losing EC ended up costing us exactly 85 units, meaning I must have been even or at a tiny plus before the high-value losses at the end.  I am not suggesting not going this high in the progression, as it sometimes takes that long for the momentum of the stronger side of an EC to correct the disparity after the swap.  I am just suggesting that we look for a less painful exit point when we see that we might be heading south in a session.  Just a thought.




Colbster

My very first session after posting my thoughts on looking for an exit when things start going squirly gives a very good demonstration of why this might be a good addition to the system.  This was a wild session, with a low of -36 units, a drawdown of 72 and a drawdown of 109 units, and a bust with a winning total of +31 units.  The swaps did exactly what they were meant to do through the middle of the session, taking a strong trend and using it against itself for profit.

However, there were several instances where things got moving the wrong direction quickly.  At spin 73, we lost at level 15 on the H/L EC.  At this point in time, that EC was -69 units, although the other two were positive, giving us a -30 balance at that moment.  4 spins later, we could have reset at +10 units.  Not a killing, and not the high point after that moment, but certainly a safe play in the interest of protecting BR.

At spin 123, we lost at level 15 on the E/O EC.  By now, H/L had recovered to positive territory and B/R was buzzing along nicely.  Even though we were at -40 on the E/O EC, we were at +35 units.  If we had quit at that moment, we would have had a higher ending balance than we eventually did after the bust.  Yes, there were moments when it grew from this point, but it could have done that starting back at 0 with a new session.  It protects us to avoid big losses when we can if we see a lot of indecision being thrown at us in the session.

Finally at spin 158, we had our H/L EC back nearly in the red after another loss at level 15.  By this time, the E/O EC had recovered back to slightly positive territory and B/R was still doing great.  After the loss on H/L at level 15, that EC has a +5 balance and our overall BR was +66.  There are some on this board who laugh at taking +66 units as not being worth their time.  I will take 66 units profit anytime I can!

To summarize this post, we still won a profit, even after a session-ending bust.  This is a strong system that I think has a lot of merit.  I remain surprised that so few people are following along on this method, as it has shown it has the ability to recover nicely and generate some awesome profits.  When we see an EC marching towards a loss, it might be time to look for the fire exit.  We had 3 separate opportunities after a loss at level 15 to walk away with profits, with 2 of those 3 giving profits greater than our eventual ending BR for this session.

I think this might be a great rule to add to this system.  Hope everyone else is having as much fun and success playing this as I am.

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