Cycle Shift - Do you like long w-Streaks?

[TwoCatSam]

George,

You hit the proverbial nail on the proverbial head with the proverbial hammer.

101 and windy here. 

Sam

[GLC]

High 90s and threatening rain here.

Do you have to drink water or can you just breath and get enough moisture?

[TwoCatSam]

George

Threatening rain??  Rain could not threaten us here.  We'd throw it a party if we thought it was coming.

No, the humidity is not bad.  Too windy.

We are in a world of hurt, though, as is much of the country.

Sam

[Psilocyx]

My 2 cents worth.  It can't be done!

All we can do is set a trigger to jump from one to the other.  It's like betting R and B.  If you just bet R today, it may be the day when B is running strong.  So you either take it in the shorts or you say, "Dang, B's killing me.  I think I'll jump over to B."  Then as soon as you start betting B, R starts hitting the most and you're still on the losing side.  So you jump back over to R and now B comes to the forefront again.  We're all familiar with the concept.

Have you seen the spreadsheet? This is far different from betting on EC streaks.

If a single dozen wins 15 out of 30 spins, that's far better than betting on red or black since you're getting 3:1 on your bet.

If a single dozen is sleeping for 25 spins, flat betting on the repeating two dozens is obviously a good bet. Tracking dozens in this way creates longer sleepers and repeaters more often than simply tracking dozens 1 2 and 3.

George I know you'd be able to do something great with this if you'd give it a fraction more thought than blowing it off as something you've seen over and over. I know you've seen it all, what I'm saying is this is different, so please look a little closer?

[GLC]

George

Threatening rain??  Rain could not threaten us here.  We'd throw it a party if we thought it was coming.

No, the humidity is not bad.  Too windy.

We are in a world of hurt, though, as is much of the country.

Sam

You're right Sam.  Living in the desert, we tend to forget when the rest of the country's having little or no rain that it's a major catastrophe.  For us, it's what we live with.  I remember some of the droughts in OK when I was growing up.  It can be devastating.
Dry ground and wind.  Sounds like the ingredients for a dust bowl.

Believe me Sam.  We're praying for you guys, and not just OK but all across the country.  I haven't been that much of a believer in global warming, but it's getting harder and harder to hold that position.

George

[GLC]

Have you seen the spreadsheet? This is far different from betting on EC streaks.

If a single dozen wins 15 out of 30 spins, that's far better than betting on red or black since you're getting 3:1 on your bet.

If a single dozen is sleeping for 25 spins, flat betting on the repeating two dozens is obviously a good bet. Tracking dozens in this way creates longer sleepers and repeaters more often than simply tracking dozens 1 2 and 3.

George I know you'd be able to do something great with this if you'd give it a fraction more thought than blowing it off as something you've seen over and over. I know you've seen it all, what I'm saying is this is different, so please look a little closer?

Psilocyx, don't take what I wrote as an attack against yourself.  It's not intended to be.  And if anything, I don't want to discourage others from looking into this in more depth.

Okay, I will admit that I haven't taken time to investigate your idea in depth.  I don't have a lot of extra time and I'm always having more and more ideas of my own that take most of my free time.
  I admit most of my ideas fizzle out after a while so don't put too much stock in my opinions.

I can't say that I am going to spend a great amount of time with your system yet.  If we start getting someone posting some exiting numbers using your method, believe me, you'll have more interest than you can handle.

I hope you're right about your idea.  We already know how to use good discipline and money management to justify risking some chips on roulette.  If this is better than what we have so far, we'll be all over your idea like stink on you know what.

[Psilocyx]

Thanks George I appreciate that .

-

I received a private message asking me to explain the method in a little more detail. My response will be posted in this thread a little later, as I think it will be useful in making the idea clearer for more people.

(Too bad you can't access sent PMs, but it's fine ^^)

[Psilocyx]

Here's my response to the PM, hopefully it makes things a bit clearer:

I'll try to break it down for you to it's most basic form. You're using 2 numbers from from previous spins to determine a bet selection. 2 specific previous numbers tell you what to bet on. These 2 numbers can actually be any 2 numbers, like 5 spins and 6 spins back, or the last 2 spins, or 20 and 21 spins back. It doesn't really matter as long as they are the same for the whole session.

You're going to bet 2 different dozens every time you bet, but it's STILL a 2 dozen bet, and because you're tracking the same numbers, it will always win 2 out of 3 times (in the long run). This is ALMOST the same as betting dozen 1 and 2 over and over and over because in the long run you will win 2 out of 3 times. The main difference is that instead of just tracking 3 individual dozens, you're actually tracking a cycle.

Because dozens 1 2 and 3 will always be random, there will not be so many repeats of a dozen, or a dozen will not sleep that long very often. It takes hundreds, or thousands of spins for a dozen to sleep longer than 15+ spins.

When you're tracking a cycle instead of dozens, you get (for whatever reason) longer streaks of "repeats" and longer "sleepers". That doesn't mean a dozen is sleeping, but it means that the current spins are more inclined to repeat the numbers that you're tracking. In this way a "double dozen bet" can repeat for over 15+ spins several times in only a couple hundred spins, without there actually being sleeping dozens.

This doesn't mean that the double dozen bet will win more than is normal! This is and will always be impossible, as everyone knows.

-

If anyone has questions please ask .

I'm sure people are getting sick of this excuse but I don't have a lot of time on my hands the last while, but I'll be doing some very serious real session testing within the coming days, which will be valuable in this ideas development.

Have a good one.

[Nickmsi]

 Hi Psilocyx. . .


Thanks for posting this system.



Your system ties into what I am working on right now and that is alternating events.


Please know that I am not highjacking your thread so if you feel this does not apply, simply delete and I will open a new thread.


I am applying a simplified Marigny de Grilleau bet selection to your spreadsheet results.


Your spreadsheet shows the wins for both the double dozen bet and the single dozen bet.


These wins form a pattern. The patterns are


Singles (W-W-W-W)
Doubles (WW-WW-WW-WW)
Series 3 or More(WWW-WWWW-WWWW-WWW)


The theory is basically that if you have a dominance of Singles and Doubles alternating in the last 10-15 spins that a correction and/or a Series of 3 or more will show up.


The trigger that I used is 9 consecutive spins of ONLY Singles and/or Doubles.  On the attached spreadsheet I have highlighted these triggers in green.


The Bet Selection is to bet the opposite of the last and is shown in blue.


Only 41 bets made in the 5000 spins, however,  ALL of them WON.


Thanks again for posting as I would not have thought of using the Marigny theory of pattern betting on "even chances" to pattern betting on your "results". . . but then again, both are random events . . . . Nick

[Psilocyx]

Thanks Nick something like this was exactly what I had in mind when posting this! It's not hi-jacking at all, it's very useful!

I think the main reason that the triggers are so far apart is because one side will only win a third of the time, so the specific patterns you're betting on will happen rarely. That's actually what makes it work, because you're basically waiting for the situations when the single dozen bet is winning half of the time. It makes the double dozen bet sooo likely to win when you actually place the bet. I think it would be a good idea to make it only a 3 step progression, but it seems like it's more than good enough.

This is a very good place to begin. We just need to figure out how to possibly increase the triggers with minimal risk increase.

Thanks again, I'll be thinking more about this too! 

[GLC]

Here's my response to the PM, hopefully it makes things a bit clearer:

I'll try to break it down for you to it's most basic form. You're using 2 numbers from from previous spins to determine a bet selection. 2 specific previous numbers tell you what to bet on. These 2 numbers can actually be any 2 numbers, like 5 spins and 6 spins back, or the last 2 spins, or 20 and 21 spins back. It doesn't really matter as long as they are the same for the whole session. This I understand.

You're going to bet 2 different dozens every time you bet, but it's STILL a 2 dozen bet, and because you're tracking the same numbers, it will always win 2 out of 3 times (in the long run). This is ALMOST the same as betting dozen 1 and 2 over and over and over because in the long run you will win 2 out of 3 times. The main difference is that instead of just tracking 3 individual dozens, you're actually tracking a cycle.  This doesn't make sense to me.  Please break it down and give a simple example or 2.

Because dozens 1 2 and 3 will always be random, there will not be so many repeats of a dozen, or a dozen will not sleep that long very often. It takes hundreds, or thousands of spins for a dozen to sleep longer than 15+ spins. Maybe will understand this better after you clarify the above paragraph.

When you're tracking a cycle instead of dozens, you get (for whatever reason) longer streaks of "repeats" and longer "sleepers". That doesn't mean a dozen is sleeping, but it means that the current spins are more inclined to repeat the numbers that you're tracking. In this way a "double dozen bet" can repeat for over 15+ spins several times in only a couple hundred spins, without there actually being sleeping dozens.

This doesn't mean that the double dozen bet will win more than is normal! This is and will always be impossible, as everyone knows.

-

If anyone has questions please ask .

I'm sure people are getting sick of this excuse but I don't have a lot of time on my hands the last while, but I'll be doing some very serious real session testing within the coming days, which will be valuable in this ideas development.

Have a good one.

[Psilocyx]

Ok I'll try to explain why I think this works George. Just tell me if it doesn't make sense.

Let's first look at EC bets:

An EC bet has 50% chance of winning. That's kind of like saying it's a coin flip, because it's 50/50, either one or the other. The main difference is instead of 2 outcomes, there are actually 36 options divided into 2 possible outcomes (ie red or black).

I think we'd all agree that flipping a coin over and over, you probably wouldn't get as long streaks of one side simply because there's only 2 sides. Yet, we constantly see very long streaks of red or black. I think it's because each time it spins it has 18 chances to land on a specific colour, and even though it's still 50/50, it allows for much longer streaks simply because of more possibilities.

So even though it's a 1:2 bet, realistically it's a 18:36 bet.

So how is CS different from simply betting on dozens?

When betting on a double dozen there are only three different bets:
1 2
1 3
2 3

Whatever you bet on, it's a 2:3 bet. However when you're betting that one of two previous numbers will repeat, while there's still only 3 different ways to bet, there are now more possibilities. Let's list them:

1 2 - 1 2
1 3 - 1 3
2 3 - 2 3
1 1 - 2 3
2 2 - 1 3
3 3 - 1 2

Whatever you bet on, it's still a 2:3 bet, but because of the bet's dependence on the previous spins, realistically it's now a 6:9 bet. I believe this is why it allows for longer streaks, sooner.

Does it make sense now?

I believe this concept can be used in other bets too to in a sense "create more possibilities", but for now I think it's good in dozens.

[Ralph]

I was trying yesterday, just a few sessions, won a few chips. The thought repeating numbers do not have to be just a number bet, it has bearing on all other bets, I have discovered long time ago.

If you see three repeaters, which can be put in one bet, Let they be RED, in the same street or what ever, then if you believe repeaters work, start betting the bet which cover many repeaters.

[GLC]

Ok I'll try to explain why I think this works George. Just tell me if it doesn't make sense.

Let's first look at EC bets:

An EC bet has 50% chance of winning. That's kind of like saying it's a coin flip, because it's 50/50, either one or the other. The main difference is instead of 2 outcomes, there are actually 36 options divided into 2 possible outcomes (ie red or black).

I think we'd all agree that flipping a coin over and over, you probably wouldn't get as long streaks of one side simply because there's only 2 sides. Yet, we constantly see very long streaks of red or black. I think it's because each time it spins it has 18 chances to land on a specific colour, and even though it's still 50/50, it allows for much longer streaks simply because of more possibilities.

So even though it's a 1:2 bet, realistically it's a 18:36 bet.

So how is CS different from simply betting on dozens?

When betting on a double dozen there are only three different bets:
1 2
1 3
2 3

Whatever you bet on, it's a 2:3 bet. However when you're betting that one of two previous numbers will repeat, while there's still only 3 different ways to bet, there are now more possibilities. Let's list them:
1 2 - 1 21 3 - 1 32 3 - 2 31 1 - 2 32 2 - 1 33 3 - 1 2  Help me understand this chart, please.Whatever you bet on, it's still a 2:3 bet, but because of the bet's dependence on the previous spins, realistically it's now a 6:9 bet. I believe this is why it allows for longer streaks, sooner.
Why isn't this a 24:36 bet?

Does it make sense now?I believe this concept can be used in other bets too to in a sense "create more possibilities", but for now I think it's good in dozens.

[Psilocyx]

The chart is simple, you're betting that the 2 numbers you're tracking will repeat, or if they're the same, that it won't repeat. After making the chart, I actually believe that this is a 18:27 bet, because there are 3 different possible outcomes to the 9 different betting "options"

Colour coded to make things clearer. Blue represents a win for the double dozen bet, red represents a win for the single dozen bet. The space represents the bet you placed.
18 blue = 18:27 (2:3)
9 red = 9:27 (1:3)

11 1
11 2
11 3
12 1
12 2
12 3
13 1
13 2
13 3
21 1
21 2
21 3
22 1
22 2
22 3
23 1
23 2
23 3
31 1
31 2
31 3
32 1
32 2
32 3
33 1
33 2
33 3

This has certainly made it clear for me why we're getting these long winning streaks. What do you think George?

Edit: In retrospect, 18:27 doesn't sound better than 24:36, but I don't think it's 18:27 instead of 24:36, but rather a 24:36 chance for a 18:27 bet. If that makes sense? Help me figure it out but I'm sure visualizing this chart helps you to understand more about the mechanics?