1. The number of people that are still stuck in up as you lose progression betting, and “rare event†betting , while attempting to side step probability, is staggering. Most of them naively believe that they’ve stumbled upon something new and original. In reality, nothing could be farther from the truth. Such ideas have been around for so long, that history has given a name to it. It’s name is the “Gambler’s Fallacyâ€. The cage of the “Gambler’s Fallacy†has the minds of these people, caged, limited and unable to escape it’s confines - simply because they can’t quite grasp the fundamentals of basic probability.
2. The first step to thinking outside of the box is to realize that you’re still trapped in it! Take the time to learn a little basic probability, and read on the Gambler’s Fallacy. If you really want to know how and what it takes to win, read on the history of the game. The information is really there. You will find the answers. If you want to take it to the next level, then read what the casino risk consultants are discussing. :thumbsup:
3. Stop trying to "read randomness". For starters, it's an oxymoron. Random is random. Claiming that random has patterns or that it ebbs and flows is silly and absurd. Making such statements annoys intelligent people. ::)
(link:://mikaelsyding.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/so-you-want-to-work-in-finance-retarded-hedge-fund-manager.jpg?189db0)
4. "Oh, that's my number! I always bet that number!" ( Evidently not, because you didn't bet it on the last spin.) Stop adding more and more numbers as you try to bet on every additional number that come up . Betting most of the numbers on the wheel, simply because you can't stand to see a number hit that you're not on... is foolish. When players are betting on most of the numbers, it's often a red flag that they may have a serious gambling problem. Some junkies even bet on all of the numbers because they are sick, foolish, and suck at math.
Less is more. Bet on far fewer numbers and learn to accept that sometimes a number will hit when you're not on it.
Try betting on 7 or fewer numbers. You're more likely to have larger wins betting on fewer numbers.
5. Stop focusing on the layout. Instead, focus on the WHEEL. There's no magical layout that will enable you to win. It's like watching a baseball, while trying to decide which soccer team will win the game.
6. Playing the game, changes the game. If your number hits and you're not on them, then had you taken the time to bet them, they may not have hit. If you missed a bet, or ran to the bathroom and came back to see your numbers on the board, had you stayed to play then the numbers may not have hit for you. The reason they may not have hit for you has to do with physics. Had you stayed, the dealer may have let the wheel spin a little longer before releasing the ball. This means a different section of the wheel will be below the ball when it's released. The wheel may be traveling at a slower or faster speed, etc. Let go, don't freak out when a number hits and you're not on it.
7. Stop with the "ifs". "If I would have bet this." "If I would have bet that." "If I would have started here." What matters is the current spin. You can't travel back in time, and if you could, your presence would likely change the physics of the game to the point that you would still have likely missed your bets. Focus on the current spin. Stop trying to reconcile your gambling by imagining how the outcome would be different had you changed your bets. It's a recipe for a gambling addiction. Use common sense.
Again, playing the game changes the game.
-The General
Great, great post AS USUAL. Will anyone follow it? Nope.
Ken
(link:://1qx9t743aq6x10xhdx3g2njx-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/glass-box_featured.jpg)
Too many people are still trapped in the box that is the gambler's fallacy, so many won't make it beyond the first paragraph.
It would be more profitable to start a
lemonade stand business than 'traditional' gambling.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Back on topic what I like to do
is take advantage of casino perks.
Since I play online casinos will give
away lots of cash to vie for your business
Now I play with the casino's money, not mine.
Quote from: Proofreaders2000 on Sep 08, 03:01 PM 2016
It would be more profitable to start a
lemonade stand business than 'traditional' gambling.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Back on topic what I like to do
is take advantage of casino perks.
Since I play online casinos will give
away lots of cash to vie for your business
Now I play with the casino's money, not mine.
Proofreaders,
You're a genius. Exploiting rebates and perks is a good idea if you're a gambler.
You're a genius.-The General
God's Grace, mate
"Stop adding more and more numbers as you try to bet on every additional number that come up . Betting most of the numbers on the wheel, simply because you can't stand to see a number hit that you're not on... is foolish" >> This should be a bumper sticker!! (lol)
People....please, please, please follow this advice!!
Ken
Quote from: The General on Sep 08, 02:46 PM 2016Again, playing the game changes the game.
It changes nothing
You go to the toilet which means the dealer produces something different
He still produces random and random has no information
Makes no difference to the game
anyway...you arnt even playing the game
QuoteHe still produces random and random has no information
Makes no difference-Turner
(link:s://media.giphy.com/media/1DEJwfwdknKZq/giphy.gif)
It's random... until it's not. Once we ignore the layout and look at the physics of the wheel, the relationship of the wheel verses the position of the ball on the track, it becomes a different game.
Good advice on how not to lose.
I'm blind in one eye and just can't see out of the other. Where do I find how to win?
Start here: link:s://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roulette :thumbsup:
Quote from: The General on Sep 08, 04:35 PM 2016
It's random... until it's not. Once we ignore the layout and look at the physics of the wheel, the relationship of the wheel verses the position of the ball on the track, it becomes a different game.
Looking back at your life in forums...as a missionary and considering all the 1000s of posts.you have made since circa 2008...repeating the same rhetoric....how many lost souls have you actually converted?
QuoteLooking back at your life in forums...as a missionary and considering all the 1000s of posts.you have made since circa 2008...repeating the same rhetoric....how many lost souls have you actually converted?
(link:://:.asset1.net/tv/pictures/movie/leap-of-faith-1992/Leap-of-Faith-DI.jpg)
Enough. More than you know. :xd:
How many people have you helped remain in the dark? ::)
(link:://vignette3.wikia.nocookie.net/metalgear/images/7/7f/Hear-No-Evil-See-No-Evil-Speak-No-Evil.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20140110032442)
For the people who play roulette on the side, as a hobby, or in fun social settings for a night out, this means nothing.
For the people who want to make a living, different story.
This is not me arguing. All im saying caleb is preaching this in threads to the people in the first part of this response (socially night out or hobby, for fun) is a waste of time for you.
Let the people who care to learn about AP come to you. Everyone knows about you
Stop being so pushy
(link:://cdn.bleedingcool.net/wp-content/uploads//2010/09/ryan-in-a-box.jpg)
Quote from: The General on Sep 08, 04:48 PM 2016Enough
Is 1 enough....or 10 or 100
Vague.
Any chance of an answer without a giant picture I dont understand
As for your question...Im not a missionary. I dont have the urge to " rid the world of ...." anything or anyone
QuoteIs 1 enough....or 10 or 100
Vague.
Any chance of an answer without a giant picture I dont understand
Look around, ask about and you will find them. "Enough" is sufficient. ;)
QuoteAs for your question...Im not a missionary. I dont have the urge to " rid the world of ...." anything or anyone -Turner
No, but you are a moderator, and with such power comes a certain amount of responsibility. You should help ensure that the truth, common sense and the facts prevail over ignorance, myth, and folklore. At the very least stop suppressing it.
(link:s://c1.staticflickr.com/3/2353/2365702490_7a1e8f01c8_b.jpg)
Quote from: The General on Sep 08, 05:04 PM 2016No, but you are a moderator, and with such power comes a certain amount of responsibility. You should help ensure that the truth, and facts prevail of ignorance, myth, and folklore
You are mixing me up with someone called herb who destroyed GG by totally abusing his position as a moderator
Silly you
Go and read up on the forum rules.
No mention of stamping out things you personally dont believe in
I easily see past bold text and condescending pictures
QuoteYou are mixing me up with someone called herb who destroyed GG by totally abusing his position as a moderator
Silly you
Go and read up on the forum rules.
No mention of stamping out things you personally dont believe in- Turner
Turner,
Are you trolling me? I hope I don't have to report you. ::) link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=17781.msg165153;topicseen#msg165153
By the way...On GG my name was NOT Herb. ;)
(link:://:.clker.com/cliparts/b/0/a/9/1355355194531419935troll-md.png)
Its not a moderators job to push an agenda
Its a moderstors job to enforce rules and let people speak freely
Different forum sub sections exist for a reason
Seems to me it bothers him that people don't devote the time he does and play as he does. Of course it bothers him hence the long 1st post in this thread
He is sadly mistaken on the role of a moderator.
I thank the high heavens (that i don't believe in) that hes not mod
Quote from: The General on Sep 08, 05:13 PM 2016On GG my name was NOT Herb.
snowman...sorry
I got an admission out of you anyhow
First time for everything
be more carefull Caleb lol
Quote from: Turner on Sep 08, 05:30 PM 2016
snowman...sorry
I got an admission out of you anyhow
First time for everything
be more carefull Caleb lol
gotta love that lack of denial admission 8)
i was reading gamblers glen
came across this
some things never change ahahaha
Sheridan Posted: 11-Jan-10 10:22
Is it true you've been banned from VLS?
snowman
Yes.
I was told that they didn't want an atomosphere where people would criticize systems if they wouldn't work. It was more important for people to share systems and fellowship in their opinion.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I put in bold something we all need to know. i am right. he is angry that we do not play his way
Bombus on GG....I AGREE!!
I do not know who bombus is. i dont care who bombus is. this quote from him on GG i spot on
QuoteIf people want to try and crack the game with systems, so be it!
If people want to try and crack the game with progressions, so be it!
If people want to try and crack the game with VB, so be it!
If people want to try and crack the game with voodoo, so be it!
If people want to try and crack the game with strategies, so be it!
If people want to try and crack the game with guessing, so be it!
If people want to try and crack the game with computers, so be it!
Who am I (or you) to judge what any other person finds preferable?
Oh, and I never have…after all, it’s their life not mine.
Bombus. In VLS...skakus here....lots of posts
Greenguy in betselection
Clever bloke...can get fractious
I related to his sense of humour
Fellow chess player too
His idea was triple shooter if I remember right
i know greenguy from bet selection
makes me laugh
Quote from: The General on Sep 08, 05:04 PM 2016
No, but you are a moderator, and with such power comes a certain amount of responsibility. You should help ensure that the truth, common sense and the facts prevail over ignorance, myth, and folklore. At the very least stop suppressing it.
Caleb translation "Be a prick, suppress speech. Do not let them play the game as they wish or share their ideas publicly. Only AP. Get the last word and lock the thread. Delete the new thread they start. If they play for fun and like making systems, make them feel dumb. Get HIGH UP on that pedestal. Wash, rinse, repeat, everyday. If that doesn't work after some odd number of years, talk in bold text and add pictures attempting to be condescending"
admit it, it's funny
While I agree with alot of what you said, you are not offering any real advice on how to win at roulette. You might as well say to win at roulette, don't gamble.
Since I've been here, I haven't once seen an AP player go into much detail on how to win this game. I've only witnessed alot of criticism toward others people's methods.
Could it be you don't want your method to be open to critics? Simply telling someone to learn the history of the game doesn't help.
I am truly interested in learning a practical way of beating roulette. Do you use dealer signiture? Do you track thousands of spins before playing?
I would like to know how you play. I don't understand why AP players are here, yet give no instructions of their own on how to win. I really believe there is more of an agenda than to spend so much time here, but offering up no detailed strategy themselves.
Quote from: Scarface on Sep 08, 06:47 PM 2016
While I agree with alot of what you said, you are not offering any real advice on how to win at roulette. You might as well say to win at roulette, don't gamble.
Since I've been here, I haven't once seen an AP player go into much detail on how to win this game. I've only witnessed alot of criticism toward others people's methods.
Could it be you don't want your method to be open to critics? Simply telling someone to learn the history of the game doesn't help.
I am truly interested in learning a practical way of beating roulette. Do you use dealer signiture? Do you track thousands of spins before playing?
I would like to know how you play. I don't understand why AP players are here, yet give no instructions of their own on how to win. I really believe there is more of an agenda than to spend so much time here, but offering up no detailed strategy themselves.
I give credit where it is due. He plays a way that works. But are you willing to give up a lot of time, intefere with life, work, family? etc
There is no debate that AP works. He finds biased wheels. Wheels that are favoring different sectors due to defects and long term use.
He is not a BAD guy....he just is one of those people that wants to push his way
My gripe is talking down to people that have no interest in making a living off the game. The people that enjoy roulette but do not want to spend hours looking for biases leave them alone......not worth the fight
You do not have to be the CEO and outside enforcement of the roulette red crossHe chooses AP. If he does well with it, good on him
NO REASON to be the way he is on forums
I have spent a lot of time with him via PM and received tips. But I am not interested. Example: airball machines, look at the history everyday. Collect 10,000 spins, and see what area is favored if any
Wow, If I behaved like you guys then I'd be banned. As Mr. J. has mentioned before, there's definitely a different set of rules for some on this forum. ::)
Quotesnowman...sorry
I got an admission out of you anyhow
First time for everything
be more carefull Caleb lol-Turner
I don't know what you mean by an admission. Furthermore, I don't know why you're trolling.
Again, what exactly does all of this have to do with the title of my thread?
Perhaps Steve can moderate the thread a little bit since there doesn't appear to be one in this thread??? ::)
hey i gave you credit in my previous post in this thread
(link:://:.reactiongifs.us/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/shaking_head_breaking_bad.gif)
Listen guys,
Focus on attacking the message, not the messenger. If you'd like, return to the subject of the thread, and feel free to argue why what is written is wrong in your opinion.
In the meantime I feel that Steve needs to moderate the moderator and Ghost. ;)
Quote from: The General on Sep 08, 07:07 PM 2016
Ghost,
I don't know why you're so obsessed with me. Why do you act like you're jilted?
hey now....lets not get carried away
mono y mono
do you REALLY enjoy this
If I knew of biased wheels I'd be out in the field milking the cows
AH THERE'S BALDY, missed him....will we be having Forest Whitaker eye as well ?
Quote from: The General on Sep 08, 07:07 PM 2016
Listen guys,
Focus on attacking the message, not the messenger.
the message you have been screaming for 8 years on all forums?
the horse has been beatin so much it's dust
Guys lets back it up a bit here. Caleb is allowed to have his say on roulette. Let's not bring GG or other issues into it here.
If you dont agree with him, have your say then let it be, just as any other member should be doing instead of getting caught in a loop.
This is his thread. For people that think he trolls, this is your chance to show how him what you think is proper behavior when you dont agree with someone.
Quote"Oh, that's my number! I always bet that number!"
Mr. J.,
That's probably the one that drive me the most insane. I always seem to hear it after the zeros or the 17 hit. I always want to respond with, "Evidently you don't, because you weren't on it."
Quote from: The General on Sep 08, 07:14 PM 2016
Mr. J.,
That's probably the one that drive me the most insane. I always seem to hear it after the zeros or the 17 hit.
I agree
me too
always the 17!
when 17 hits at resorts IT ERUPTS IN CHEERS
The real question for me is WHY people tend to overlook facts. I think it's because they find the facts inconvenient, and are looking for a simpler black and white way to win. At least thats how it was for me 20 years ago.
Quote from: Steve on Sep 08, 07:14 PM 2016
This is his thread. For people that think he trolls, this is your chance to show how him what you think is proper behavior when you dont agree with someone.
this is a good point
Quote from: Steve on Sep 08, 07:16 PM 2016
The real question for me is WHY people tend to overlook facts. I think it's because they find the facts inconvenient, and are looking for a simpler black and white way to win. At least thats how it was for me 20 years ago.
why do you assume this though steve?
most of us here KNOW those facts
but do not care to make a living playing and only enjoy the game as it is
i have an on topic question
caleb, when was the last time you played a biased wheel?
General, does your method involve tracking thousands of spins? Wouldn't just looking at the "hot numbers" on the marquee give you the information you need.
If I were to play this method, heres how I would do it: Record the 4 " hot numbers" off the marquee. Do this maybe 2 or 3 times a day over a period of a maybe a week. It would definitely be an advantage if you lived near the casino, or had help getting the info. Then after a week or so, look at your records and pick out 4 of the hottest of hot numbers recorded (numbers recorded the most). Then bet only those 4 numbers.
Seems like this would give you enough information. What do you think?
Quote from: Scarface on Sep 08, 07:30 PM 2016Wouldn't just looking at the "hot numbers" on the marquee give you the information you need.
In some circumstances, that would be enough. But there is tonnes more information that can and should be used.
QuoteGeneral, does your method involve tracking thousands of spins?
Tracking a biased wheel involves tracking a wheel if you believe the wheel to be biased, often times for thousands of spins. I play both VB..which requires very little tracking, and wheel bias..which does require lots of tracking.
QuoteWouldn't just looking at the "hot numbers" on the marquee give you the information you need.
Sadly no. You need more information than just that. You need to know other things, such as which direction the wheel was spinning when the numbers hit, the wheel speed, ball used, etc.
QuoteIf I were to play this method, heres how I would do it: Record the 4 " hot numbers" off the marquee. Do this maybe 2 or 3 times a day over a period of a maybe a week. It would definitely be an advantage if you lived near the casino, or had help getting the info. Then after a week or so, look at your records and pick out 4 of the hottest of hot numbers recorded (numbers recorded the most). Then bet only those 4 numbers.
That would be a good start. However, there's more to it than just writing down hot numbers. For example...which portion of the wheel is the ball impacting the most? Is the ball bouncing farther on average when it impacts one location verses another location?
QuoteSeems like this would give you enough information. What do you think?
It's a good start and it's vastly superior to most of the systems found here. The brute force of way of writing down several thousand numbers will work, but you can get a much higher edge if you incorporate more information into your data collection.
Here's another sick thing I do but I dont care. I see a lot, when a person bets on only two numbers but with one gap. Meaning, I see the 17/20 bet QUITE OFTEN.
I *LOVE* putting a black on the 32 so that if it hits, I can laugh and laugh (lol)
Yes, I need help.
Ken
Quote from: MrJ on Sep 08, 08:22 PM 2016
I *LOVE* putting a black on the 32 so that if it hits, I can laugh and laugh (lol)
Ken
well you know what i say, do what ya love!
question: i know you play only a few numbers max, and it is usually based around hot numbers
lets talk like grown men
what is so special about betting hot numbers at the moment vs betting any other number?
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Sep 08, 08:25 PM 2016
well you know what i say, do what ya love!
question: i know you play only a few numbers max, and it is usually based around hot numbers
lets talk like grown men
what is so special about betting hot numbers at the moment vs betting any other number?
General and I have talked about this before. I think I even did a thread about it in the past called >> Can I bet on bias numbers (tilt in the wheel) and not know it? (something like that, I dont remember).
Meaning, if my numbers are TEMPORARILY bias because of the wheel and I'm betting on them, I really dont care what the *EXACT* reason of..."why they are hitting".
I refuse to bet on COLD numbers (as I did years back). Yes, the 21 that has not hit in the last 250 spins, may now hit 4/25 spins, I get it but count me out. NO COLD NUMBERS.
Ken
Quote from: MrJ on Sep 08, 08:43 PM 2016
General and I have talked about this before. I think I even did a thread about it in the past called >> Can I bet on bias numbers (tilt in the wheel) and not know it? (something like that, I dont remember).
Meaning, if my numbers are TEMPORARILY bias because of the wheel and I'm betting on them, I really dont care what the *EXACT* reason of..."why they are hitting".
I refuse to bet on COLD numbers (as I did years back). Yes, the 21 that has not hit in the last 250 spins, may now hit 4/25 spins, I get it but count me out. NO COLD NUMBERS.
Ken
But wouldn't that mean the 21 was now hot? Guess it all depends on reference of what hot and cold is. Hot could mean over the last 20, 100, 1000, or 10000 spins. I prefer to play what's hot from the time I sat at the table....past does not matter to me
I really dont get into the cold thing (anymore), with one exception.
Up to 3 numbers max...if I see a few numbers being bet without one hit, for HOURS!!..When the person gives up, I may bet those for 10 spins but thats it.
A guy was betting only the 1 13 36...for hours. He ran out of money and I put a green on each of the 3. I got my wish, the guy STAYED and watched (lol). First spin, 36 hits!
Hahahahaha
Ken
Quote from: MrJ on Sep 08, 09:01 PM 2016
I really dont get into the cold thing (anymore), with one exception.
Up to 3 numbers max...if I see a few numbers being bet without one hit, for HOURS!!..When the person gives up, I may bet those for 10 spins but thats it.
A guy was betting only the 1 13 36...for hours. He ran out of money and I put a green on each of the 3. I got my wish, the guy STAYED and watched (lol). First spin, 36 hits!
Hahahahaha
Ken
Nice! Gotta love it when that happens. I've also learned my lesson not to bet cold numbers because I think they're due. If I do, I wait until it hits the first time. Last trip to the casin the marquee was showing 0/00 hadn't hit in over 200 spins. About 30 minutes later the 0 hit. I then bet both 0s and got 3 hits out of the next 4 spins.
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Sep 08, 09:09 PM 2016
To dabble in another persons misery.
Not surprised.
Funny though
It would not of been as fun had the guy left. :(
Ken
Quote from: The General on Sep 08, 02:46 PM 2016
If you want to take it to the next level, then read what the casino risk consultants are discussing. :thumbsup:
Which can be found where?
Should i ask upper management to let me have a word? IS there a public open door policy where they volunteer their profit risks to the public?
What does it take to be a professional AP player
Time traveling?
Searching for biased wheels?
Time spent at these wheels?
Risk vs Reward?
At the end of the day if a bias is believed to be found and wins come in can it just be variance in your favor at that particular time?
Are hot numbers a gamblers fallacy since any number can hit?
How wealthy can one become?
Do age of the wheels matter? Casinos change out wheels all the time. Can new wheels be biased?
Quote
How wealthy can one become?
Have you ever heard of Billy Walters?
QuoteDo age of the wheels matter? Casinos change out wheels all the time. Can new wheels be biased?
Yes and no. Some wheels are biased because of wear or repeated exposure to fluctuations in temperature and humidity. Others are born biased due to poor assembly.
Casinos don't change wheels all the time. Some rotate them around the casino once every few months. Others may not move them at all. Moved wheels are more advantageous to the player.
It takes the right technique for the right conditions and wheel. An eye for detail, persistence and time.
Actually a lot less time than a 9-5 job if you know what you're doing.
Resorts has new airball machines. Some change speed
Some look they have a the same speed and slowdown every spin
Not too confident in AP on airbaml
I question the fairness of them to
Just saw them all last week.
Quote from: The General on Sep 08, 10:19 PM 2016
Just saw them all last week.
I was there last week as well. Im 30 minutes east in the non mutant territory in the burbs
I agree with all the AP stuff in theory, but don't see it as practical. Let's say one did find a wheel that seemed bias after tracking thousands of spins. There would still be alot of unknown variables, that there is no way to guarantee it's bias. Different dealers spin the ball differently (spin, speed, etc). Casino could change out or adjust the wheel. A different ball could be used (different size, weight). What was perceived as bias, due to a wheel defect, could actually be bias for one of many different unknown reasons.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying wheel tracking is not effective. But systems can also be effective too.
I think short term bias can be just as effective and profitable as long term. Sure, we might not know if it's actually variance or bias in the short term, but it doesn't really matter. Even long term tracking doesnt guarantee the bias is due to a defect in the wheel.
QuoteI agree with all the AP stuff in theory, but don't see it as practical. Let's say one did find a wheel that seemed bias after tracking thousands of spins. There would still be alot of unknown variables, that there is no way to guarantee it's bias.
I've found hundreds and hundreds. It's what I do for a living. Bias wheel play and VB. I find them based on visual defects. We know they're bias because of the defects, because of chi square and standard deviation testing. If you'd like some examples, I can show you sometime.
QuoteDifferent dealers spin the ball differently (spin, speed, etc). Casino could change out or adjust the wheel. A different ball could be used (different size, weight). What was perceived as bias, due to a wheel defect, could actually be bias for one of many different unknown reasons.
How the dealer spins the ball is really of no consequence. Largely, the last half dozen revolutions of the ball will be the same for each dealer. The exception is for the dealers that "have a bad hand". Such dealers tend to unintentionally bounce the ball when they release it, or snap it hard, causing a "heavy knee piont" (strong deceleration point) where the ball stops sliding and begins rolling in the direction of the spin. This really has no effect on bias. It can have an effect on VB though.
Different balls are put into play at various times, and they do have an effect. However, the player can easily see when the ball has been changed and can refer to the data for each unique ball.
The same is true with a wheel change. However, casinos rarely fix wheels on the casino floor. They're usually sent out for repair. On the floor, the only thing that usually takes place is cleaning. There are some exceptions.
QuoteDon't get me wrong, I'm not saying wheel tracking is not effective. But systems can also be effective too.
Unfortunately they can't.
QuoteI think short term bias can be just as effective and profitable as long term. Sure, we might not know if it's actually variance or bias in the short term, but it doesn't really matter. Even long term tracking doesnt guarantee the bias is due to a defect in the wheel.
Actually observation of the defect and long term tracking does ensure that the wheel is biased.
Cheers,
The General (Caleb)
This is my last post on this forum if each of my posts must be pre approved by Turner.
Quote from: Scarface on Sep 09, 10:23 AM 2016
I agree with all the AP stuff in theory, but don't see it as practical. Let's say one did find a wheel that seemed bias after tracking thousands of spins. There would still be alot of unknown variables, that there is no way to guarantee it's bias. Different dealers spin the ball differently (spin, speed, etc). Casino could change out or adjust the wheel. A different ball could be used (different size, weight). What was perceived as bias, due to a wheel defect, could actually be bias for one of many different unknown reasons.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying wheel tracking is not effective. But systems can also be effective too.
I think short term bias can be just as effective and profitable as long term. Sure, we might not know if it's actually variance or bias in the short term, but it doesn't really matter. Even long term tracking doesnt guarantee the bias is due to a defect in the wheel.
I agree 100%
Lets says the wheel by the lady in the red dress has a flaw from extended usage. AKA it is worn out. And it does have a slight bias
I do not think that guarantees success by attempting to exploit that bias.
The ball will most certainly avoid the bias based on how the dealer releases and spins. If the ball avoids the bias it cannot be exploited. Therefore the bias player can and will have many losing bets just like any other Mr. Smith roulette player
When the ball does enter the "biased zone" it was bound to happen anyway even on an unbiased wheel. Variance? Luck? Who knows if it was the bias that got you that win.
In my humble opinion VB is better. Physics. Ball release point versus wheel speed. Bias can be fallacy. Visual ballistics is science.
I think aspects of AP are fallacy
Play for fun. Only play with money you can afford to lose. And play however your heart desires: Advantage play. Systems. Flapjacks. Visual Ballistics. Methods. Martingale. Random betting.
Its your money play it as YOU wish. Dont let anyone tell you the right or wrong way to play a NEGATIVE EXPECTATION game. There is no right or wrong way, it is a game.
Dont be a junkie and only use disposable money. And for god sakes shower. The bold text is better advice then you will ever get from Caleb.
Caleb does not consort with people with a nursery mentality to determine what is good or bad for then .Play at your own risk.
Just like the lib nuts around the globe only WE know what`s good for your.
Be a master of your own destiny..
Quote from: Tamino on Sep 09, 01:05 PM 2016
Play at your own risk.
Just like the lib nuts around the globe only WE know what`s good for your.
Be a master of your own destiny..
Hate liberals
Great post and advice
Quote from: The General on Sep 09, 12:15 PM 2016This is my last post on this forum if each of my posts must be pre approved by Turner.
There are 4 mods in total. Any of them can put people on moderate and approve posts
Dont assume.
Quote from: The General on Sep 09, 12:15 PM 2016This is my last post on this forum
Please, please let that be true
RG, everyone,cough, i'm off to the betting shop to play on the FOBT, oh yeah mickey mouse roulette to a couple
Quote from: Turner on Sep 09, 02:35 PM 2016
There are 4 mods in total. Any of them can put people on moderate and approve posts
Dont assume.
Should have just let him assume on that one. Hes good at assumptions without factual basis.
Quote from: nottophammer on Sep 09, 02:42 PM 2016
Please, please let that be true
I am agnostic. But i catch myself praying right now
Quote from: The General on Sep 09, 12:15 PM 2016
I've found hundreds and hundreds. It's what I do for a living. Bias wheel play and VB. I find them based on visual defects. We know they're bias because of the defects, because of chi square and standard deviation testing. If you'd like some examples, I can show you sometime.
How the dealer spins the ball is really of no consequence. Largely, the last half dozen revolutions of the ball will be the same for each dealer. The exception is for the dealers that "have a bad hand". Such dealers tend to unintentionally bounce the ball when they release it, or snap it hard, causing a "heavy knee piont" (strong deceleration point) where the ball stops sliding and begins rolling in the direction of the spin. This really has no effect on bias. It can have an effect on VB though.
Different balls are put into play at various times, and they do have an effect. However, the player can easily see when the ball has been changed and can refer to the data for each unique ball.
The same is true with a wheel change. However, casinos rarely fix wheels on the casino floor. They're usually sent out for repair. On the floor, the only thing that usually takes place is cleaning. There are some exceptions.
Unfortunately they can't.
Actually observation of the defect and long term tracking does ensure that the wheel is biased.
Cheers,
The General (Caleb)
This is my last post on this forum if each of my posts must be pre approved by Turner.
If you do this for a living and make good money, that is awesome. When I say AP method was impractical, I was talking about someone like myself who don't have the time to track numbers, ball changes, etc.
But I would be interested in spotting defects in the wheel. Are defects fairly easy to visually spot? If so, whats something to keep an eye out for?
Generals signature is silly.
You have been weighed, you have been measured, and you have been found wanting.
Caleb`s presence on this forum did not cause any one losing any money quite a contrast to some wild negative progressions which had been heavily promoted.
Caleb did not bother me at the original GG , neither at Victor`s bet selection and now here at RF as I always read his posts with an open mind.
Quote from: Tamino on Sep 09, 06:45 PM 2016
Caleb`s presence on this forum did not cause any one losing any money quite a contrast to some wild negative progressions which had been heavily promoted.
Caleb did not bother me at the original GG , neither at Victor`s bet selection and now here at RF as I always read his posts with an open mind.
I have always liked you and seen you as a friend on the board and through PM. we are both native long islanders, we must be friends, lol
serious question for you
is it not true that you play systems as well? i do. most do. but you are disciplined
you dont go in with mortgage money correct? you play for fun?
ND i ask because you are not the most transparent cat
you bash systems but i know you play action numbers
RG
I am a recreational player . For practical purposes I favor the 22 Action numbers. On occasion a hit and run Black dominant EC against Red.Short term play but not every spin .
If seat # 2 is not available I might consider playing the second and third columns.
Likewise. Recreational play.
Similar play here
Have a good night ND thanks for response
In AC with friends i play columns
in reality the wheel won't help you really win. Lots of people trying to do it, looking at the wheel trying to find something which will help them. It is dead end my friends...
What may help you win it is statistical fact. Law ot the third. Last 37 or 38 spins, two thirds of numbers come up on average. One third sleeps.
It is not easy to use though. But that is where you can finally find answers. Maybe...
Other things are hopeless with unbiased wheels and no advantage play.
Quote from: iggiv on Sep 09, 09:20 PM 2016
in reality the wheel won't help you really win. Lots of people trying to do it, looking at the wheel trying to find something which will help them. It is dead end my friends...
What may help you win it is statistical fact. Law ot the third. Last 37 or 38 spins, two thirds of numbers come up on average. One third sleeps.
It is not easy to use though. But that is where you can finally find answers. Maybe...
Other things are hopeless with unbiased wheels and no advantage play.
Heres what makes me laugh
Law of the 3rd is math
Math guys fight the law of the 3rd
you can call it whatever you want. The fact is there. You can check it out yourself. This fact does not care about math guys or chemical guys. Or rocket scientists.
Quote from: iggiv on Sep 09, 10:01 PM 2016
you can call it whatever you want. The fact is there. You can check it out yourself. This fact does not care about math guys or chemical guys. Or rocket scientists.
I agree!
So that makes some things simple. Whatever you bet must be 2:1. 2 parts are numbers which were in the last 38 spins. 1 part is cold numbers. Now the question on which numbers you will base this proportion. And how many of them. 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27, 30 or 33. You gotta figure it out somehow. O0
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Sep 09, 09:44 PM 2016
Heres what makes me laugh
Law of the 3rd is math
Math guys fight the law of the 3rd
RG, you missing the point as to why the math guy's are fighting this. Don't be telling me you playing for fun and not for making a living. I have read that side of you.
They are saying the payout on the game is making us system/method players to have a disadvantage.
I think, you know me by now. I will vouch and say this, yes I have had my dis-agreements with Steve in respect to GUT and rest.
However, from all his posts that I have read, he has made it very clear that he is trying to avoid new player's from falling into the same trap that same off the experience players fell in when they started the game.
Sometimes, in life, we have to hear things over and over and over in order for them to get into a human mind. For some it may sound like a broken record, but for some minds that constant nagging makes it wake up.
BTW, I am not kissing any A**. Just laying the facts out.
How can we use law of the 3rd though
We need a way to determine the bets
If 2 unque columns show say column 1 shows then column 3 shows right after
Then our next bet is on col 1 and col 3. This is law of the third.......ive played this way before. It works very well in most cases but still loses
it's not easy to use law of the third. Nothing is easy in roulette. i already explained a little in a previous post, you probably did not read it. you can use it with single numbers only.
now this is how a forum should work, reply 75 onwards, perfect
Quote from: iggiv on Sep 10, 01:05 PM 2016
it's not easy to use law of the third.
Agreed, correct! 8)
Ken
wow Mr j have you been waiting, no sooner i posted you smited, LOL
2 more minutes and i'll smite you back,
Quote from: nottophammer on Sep 10, 01:15 PM 2016
wow Mr j have you been waiting, no sooner i posted you smited, LOL
Please dont use my name (or...him, he), then complain (as you just did) that I reply back. This is AT LEAST, the 15th time I have pointed this out in the last three months or so.
Ken
Quote from: Azim on Sep 09, 10:59 PM 2016
Sometimes, in life, we have to hear things over and over and over in order for them to get into a human mind.
It's a path we all need to walk on....some walk faster than others.......
Quote from: iggiv on Sep 09, 09:20 PM 2016in reality the wheel won't help you really win. Lots of people trying to do it, looking at the wheel trying to find something which will help them. It is dead end my friends...
Actually the wheel is the most logical thing to look at if a player wants to put the odds in their favour. Statistics from random accuracy tells you not much more than how much you can expect to lose.
Quote from: iggiv on Sep 09, 09:20 PM 2016What may help you win it is statistical fact. Law of the third. Last 37 or 38 spins, two thirds of numbers come up on average. One third sleeps.
Thats like saying roughly half the spins will be red. It doesnt help because the knowledge doesnt in any way increase accuracy of predictions. The odds dont change, and payouts dont change, so nothing has changed.
Steve essentially you are saying the maths can't help
it is fact
so why can we not attempt to use it
Sure it's a "fact", and you can "use" it, but not to change the odds.
Again it's like saying there will be roughly half red and half black spins (green 0 excluded). It's a statistical fact. But try getting an advantage from the fact.
To beat roulette, you need to think about cause and effect. WHY the ball lands where it does.
AP does use statistics, but not in the way the "law of a third" does. AP looks at statistics like "how far the ball is bouncing". The "law of a third" looks at "which numbers repeat, for whatever unknown reason".
Normally with AP, you must understand the cause, so you make the right decisions about whether or not your data is reliable. But it's not always the case. For example, with bias, you could just determine which numbers won most over a few thousand spins. You don't need to know the "cause" and can still often be right. But the "law of a third" has no foundation. No science. It's just basic probability. You can't do anything with it.
I don't understand why people still bother with this and similar approaches. You know most sets of 37 spins, you arent going to have every single number spin once. It can happen, but probably wont in your lifetime. But try predicting which numbers will or wont be repeats, with an accuracy better than random. You cant.
Anyone wasting time with the law of a third needs to understand why it doesn't work. I'm not saying focus on AP. I'm saying try something NEW.
RG I know you play recreational and dont care. That's fine. I'm talking to people who actually do care about winning long term, and are looking to become more financially secure. To these people, first I'd say roulette is not the easiest way to become financially secure UNLESS you have suitable wheels and conditions. And even then, most people dont have the mindset and patience for it.
Everyone is different, but some things are the same. What's always the same is what works and what doesnt, and why. Not understanding something does not change reality.
this is not true about red and two thirds. It is not the same. To get half of red you need to take on average more than just last 37 or 38 spins. When you look at last 37-38 spins you won't see all the time half red and half black.
but it is gonna be pretty close to 2/3 and 1/3.
but i am not gonna go into argument. If it doesn't help then be it. Everyone decides for himself.
Quote from: Steve on Sep 11, 08:22 PM 2016
Actually the wheel is the most logical thing to look at if a player wants to put the odds in their favour. Statistics from random accuracy tells you not much more than how much you can expect to lose.
Thats like saying roughly half the spins will be red. It doesnt help because the knowledge doesnt in any way increase accuracy of predictions. The odds dont change, and payouts dont change, so nothing has changed.
Quote from: iggiv on Sep 11, 09:10 PM 2016If it doesn't help then be it. Everyone decides for himself.
Yes anyone can decide. But clear mathematical fact is not a decision or opinion. Really if you ask any statistician, they'd basically laugh at the "law of a third" being used to develop a system. The information and knowledge is COMMON. It is very well documented. People are just not understanding it. Really I was there once too. I couldn't get my head around it and thought there must be a way. And when I finally understood it, I realized how much time I wasted. Really I felt like an idiot - the kind the casinos love.
Really if a new player would spend ONE DAY just carefully learning and understanding the facts and reasons, they could save YEARS of stuffing around and losing. But if you said this to me when I was a new player, I would have probably told you where to go too.
Its like having a book with all the answers, but you refuse to pick it up and read. Instead you refuse to read and and insist on doing things your way. As a consequence, you waste years on bullshit. Again i was there once too.
Yes statistical and math gurus will laugh, no problem with this. There are some things they still don't know.
When you study it closely u see something weird. But i am not gonna go into it.
Anyone can try. Or may not. Up to everyone.
I know they don't know everything. Nobody does. I have personally not seen anything about the law of a third that cannot be explained by a simple equation.
Here's a big hint though. Everything in the universe is subject to numbers like the golden ratio (1.618). A simple introduction in roulette is link:://:.roulettephysics.com/fibonacci-roulette-system/
If there ever way a "holy grail", I have little doubt the answer will be reflected in nature. Not in incorrect perception. The golden ratio is everywhere.
Quote from: Steve on Sep 11, 09:19 PM 2016
Really if a new player would spend ONE DAY just carefully learning and understanding the facts and reasons, they could save YEARS of stuffing around and losing.
....and thats the very same 6-8 years that I say but it gets looked at funny. 6-8 years is an estimate but I'm damn close.
Ken
Quote from: Steve on Sep 11, 09:33 PM 2016
I know they don't know everything. Nobody does. I have personally not seen anything about the law of a third that cannot be explained by a simple equation.
Here's a big hint though. Everything in the universe is subject to numbers like the golden ratio (1.618). A simple introduction in roulette is link:://:.roulettephysics.com/fibonacci-roulette-system/
If there ever way a "holy grail", I have little doubt the answer will be reflected in nature. Not in incorrect perception. The golden ratio is everywhere.
I just watched an episode on Netflix called Touch. It's about an autistic kid who sees the world mathematically. Talks about golden ratio, fibinocchi, etc. I had to google golden ratio because I forgot what that was. Anyway, thought it was interesting you mentioned this right after I was looking it up.
There exists a famous number related to the law of the third.
But nobody except roulettists calls it "law of the third" .
I will let this as a riddle for some days, one reason I have to go t work now. :sad2:
Everybody who knows, please answer ...
Phi.
Wrong answer? Phi is 1.618...
37/1.6=22.8
While LOTT tells you to bet 24 mumbers, Phi says 23 is best. If both win, then Phi has an edge over LOTT since it wastes one less unit LOL.
I´ll name a few more greek numbers then, to reduce variance. Delta, Sigma and Pi.
I don't know whats LOTT :embarrassed:
One can try to do the exact calculation with exakt probabilities for the "law of the third".
37 numbers, 100, and so on.
Extrapolation to infinity.
This results converge to a very well known number.
LOTT is just acronym for Law Of The Third.
Well I reached the stop loss. What is the right answer?
1/E
E ... Euler Number 2.71828...
Thanks I´ll do research on it!
Quote from: psimoes on Sep 13, 03:16 PM 2016
Thanks I´ll do research on it!
Thanks to you, know I know what's LOTT :thumbsup:
This info about Euler number I read in a paper from Pierre Basieux more than 10 years ago.
No problem! I´ve read about Euler before, on a collection of books called "The World Is Math". But it was a bit too much, so I skipped it... Anyway he was a great mathematician, up there with Gauss. Gauss having discovered the Bell Curve, used the principle to invest on the stock market and became a very wealthy man.
Let´s see if there´s anything to profit from. The unfair payout, though...
Quote from: psimoes on Sep 13, 03:47 PM 2016Gauss having discovered the Bell Curve, used the principle to invest on the stock market and became a very wealthy man.
Just saw the thread and have not gone through 8 pages so I may have lost the connection... did you mean Gauss used the Bell curve to make money in the stock market? How the heck exactly? :o
It´s just what the book said. A sideline. That was in the early 1800s. My guess statistics alone won´t cut it anymore.
Google Gauss Bell Curve Stock Market.