Probability for 13 in a row.

[Ralph]

A friend told me he just got 13 even numbers in a row, and he ask me for the probability of that.
My answer was 100.000000%.


He had problem to grasp that, probability is allways 100.000000% while looking back, probability belongs to the events in the future.
Everthing which has happen has 100.000000%  probability, if we not can travel faster than the light.


It will not be anything due, even if we see a very hard deviation, it can grow more, it is not bound to change, rather be diluted.
Deviation has as the wheel no memory.  The next step in a random stream never look back!!


When I track for hot numbers I just chose to use that way, I never know.

[TwoCatSam]

Ralph

May I rephrase the question? 

What is the probability my next 13 numbers will all be red?

Sam

[Ralph]

Ralph

May I rephrase the question? 

What is the probability my next 13 numbers will all be red?

Sam

Sam!


Depends on the wheel, and we presume it is fair. If NOZ just as we use to count  0.5000000000000000 multiple 13 times.
Never use decimal if not many figures after the point.


At American, do not use decimal, use  18/38 multiply 13 times.

[Obi Wan]

In roulette there is no such thing as a "random" event or probability. The ball lands in a pocket for a certain reason, its a physical reason.

[TwoCatSam]

Pshaw!!  Stuff and nonsense!!

[Ralph]

Human brains have difficult to understand random. The fact something has a "physical reason"  never void a random events. A radioactive decay is a physical event and a random event. 


Which events are not physical?




Even a biased wheel produce random outcomes, but with not the same probability for all numbers.


Information can change the random to not random.  The numbers fallen and published from some casinos are random even if they are past, but
we can change its state by looking at them, and chose a stream which  suits a purpose.


A device which can tell the next number for a wheel, make it not random only if it is 100% right. It is normal still random numbers, but the pay outs may be such as the expected value is positive.

[Obi Wan]

Human brains have difficult to understand random. The fact something has a "physical reason"  never void a random events. A radioactive decay is a physical event and a random event. 


Which events are not physical?




Even a biased wheel produce random outcomes, but with not the same probability for all numbers.


Information can change the random to not random.  The numbers fallen and published from some casinos are random even if they are past, but
we can change its state by looking at them, and chose a stream which  suits a purpose.


A device which can tell the next number for a wheel, make it not random only if it is 100% right. It is normal still random numbers, but the pay outs may be such as the expected value is positive.

But there is no such thing as random. Every thing has a cause an affect. An event happened for a certain reason, not because it was random, you cannot define random.

As for biased wheels - a biased wheel is a biased wheel because certain numbers are being hit more than probability dictates -how does random come into a biased wheel? A biased wheel is what it is, a physical flaw is causing that bias.

The only way to ever beat roulette is the physical aspect

[Ralph]

I think you mix up odds and randomness. A completely unbiased wheel, which happen to have 37  numbers, paying  36x for a straight up hit, has a negative expected value, and impossible to beat in the very long run.


If the payouts should change to  38x or more, the wheel should still produce random results, but get a positive expected value, and produce winnings in the long run.


A biased wheel gives random results, but if the odds on some numbers have a positive expected value, and those numbers are known to a player, he will win in the longer run. The odds on the chances are not equal on a  enough biased wheel.


It comes down to the odds, nothing else.

[TwoCatSam]

A biased wheel is as rare as a flying penguin.

Bah!  Humbug!!  Humbug, I say!!

[Ralph]

Sam!


I think we can not find a such wheel. All casinos are aware of the risks and monitor the wheels. Many who think they have found a wheel, has not, they just had a good streak.


Even if a wheel has a minor bias, it is not easy to use it. It is in the longer run the HE works for the casino. The casino table has many players which make the bettings even out on the chances. It needs only a slight advantage of 1.3% for be sure to get profit in the long run.


If betting on the even chances are about the same each, the casino get 1.3% if zero hits 1/37. For the casino the variance is lower, than for a single player.


A player can not expect a wheel with small bias, will stay like that for long, and the player win just a fraction more, which is diluted by the variance,
the player will not know if it was bias or not making the winning, if he not are allowed to play for very long time.


A Black Jack counter can maybe get at most 1% positive expectation. The game has variance, such high the player still can lose very much, and the player needs at least 10000 hands to be at any certainty some a head.


Many "counters" think they used skill, but it was luck, and many has been accused for counting, just because they win, many who count lose.


It is as much voodoo in Advantage-play as in other kinds of strategies.

[Obi Wan]

"It all comes down to odds"

So what you are saying, a biased wheel is all down to odds?

[Ralph]

"It all comes down to odds"

So what you are saying, a biased wheel is all down to odds?

Yes! The payouts are higher than the real odds on some parts of the wheel, so some numbers will have a positive expected value,
as the bank payout is the same for all numbers, but theire chance of fall are not equal.




I do not think  they exist in any casino today, if it is in such place you will be robbed if you win.


Any bet which pays more than then the expected will win in a longer run.


If it is an American wheel it has to be all lot unbalanced, it has to be over 5.25%, almost visible.

[ausguy]

Casino wheel technology these days has become very sophisticated. Go to wheel maker CAMMERGHs site for an indication on what's on offer.
Casinos have statistics on every spin on every wheel through a computer linkup.
They can identify wheel bias and repair/replace that wheel most likely before any player can ID the bias ?
They monitor every dealer. What I notice these days at my local B & M casino, compared to a few years ago, is far less runs of results on any of the even chances.
The dealers are better trained to spin more randomly on wheels that have more random scatter.
CAMMERGH now has technology that has random rotor speed  RRS control to minimise number reading mini computer accuracy. They say this is being introduced for online play where they will extend the bet time to just before the ball drops as in B & M play. Last bets play increases casino income.
They also have RRS on their airball wheels as well as discrete air blasts holes in the ball track.

[Obi Wan]

Hey ralph. Sorry but you are incorrect. A bias is something that can and will build over time on a roulette wheel. A bias can come down to the roulette table itself or just simple wear and tear on the wheel. wheel bias is a physical event. As for ODDS, the casino has an 2.7% edge over you, this has absolutely nothing to do with wheel bias as you can appreciate.

[Ralph]

Hey ralph. Sorry but you are incorrect. A bias is something that can and will build over time on a roulette wheel. A bias can come down to the roulette table itself or just simple wear and tear on the wheel. wheel bias is a physical event. As for ODDS, the casino has an 2.7% edge over you, this has absolutely nothing to do with wheel bias as you can appreciate.

I am sorry to say you are wrong, if a wheel got bias for any reason, some outcome has not 2.7% edge for the casino, the pay 1 to 36 on a number which a odds should be  for example 1 to 34 to keep the 2.7% edge.


A fair wheel with no bias and a pay out of 1 to 40 should be possible to beat. On a bias wheel some numbers has advantage odds for the player instead of the casino, because the odds are wrong from the casinos point. The same is used by sports bettor, find some odds which give advantages.


If the casino know the bias, the could put odds on the numbers different to keep the advantages, IE do not pay the same for all numbers.


The chances are not the same to hit a street or a corner, so we got different odds.  The casino would adjust the wheel instead of give different odds, because it is simple, but that is an adjust which is the same as changing the odds if the wheel show other.