Every Winning System Needs........

[ddarko]

"A reason why it wins" 

I read this statement several times by numerous people, I just wandered what this forum thinks ?

It kinda makes sense to me, but finding an ACTUAL reason ?

That sounds like rocket science to me 

Does anybody else agree/disagree with this phrase ? I'd like to know.....

[MrJ]

A did a similar thread on this subject years ago, its a decent topic. I have posted several times in the past, I SUCK at math, no doubt about it.

I have two non-published methods and a couple of them posted that do, "quite well".

Can I explain why? Nope. Am I obligated to explain why? Nope. Do I give a rats a**? Nope.

Just because I/we can not explain the WHY of something, does NOT mean it doesn't exist. The numbers 11 and 23 are hitting like wildfire and I'm betting heavy on them until they die out. The numbers 2, 14 and 36 are cold as heck and I'm not betting on them......

So, what is it I really need to explain? Here's the funny line the Advantage-play (cough) goofs like to use the most...... "Why is the #11 BETTER to bet on compared to the #36"?

They WANT us to stutter and fish for a decent answer. Its ALL THEY HAVE in their little bag of tricks. Its ALL THEY HAVE LEFT to hold on to.


TRIAL & ERROR has little (or nothing) to do with "what is a better bet" in roulette.

I hope my post made a bit of sense, its 2:30am, just got done watching Gangster Squad, good movie.

Ken

[ddarko]

@ Ken

Ok, so what exactly are you saying ? The statement has no credence & was only posted by AP players ?

Or it doesn't matter, n what works works.... there doesn't have to be a reason ?

[MrJ]

(Was real busy, sorry)


Yes, in my opinion, the SAYING (or question) was invented by the AP (cough) crew. I think it has little merit to it. I'm a good example...... for the sake of arguement, we'll assume I dont lie in regards to "doing well" with roulette but if you ask me WHY or HOW can that be, I do NOT know. I can not write out a math formula for you and I admit it. So does that mean I'm lying? I sure hope not.

I dont believe there needs to be a rock solid REASON as to why a method works.

It would be a waste of your time trying to explain...... the second you say,
"bet the 4 5 6 street because it has a HIGHER PROBABILITY TO HIT", you are doomed !!! The AP (cough) goofs WAIT for wording like that so they can ATTACK the author.

Ken

[ddarko]

right, Ok thanks for getting back to me Ken 

I now know where your coming from 

Personally, I'd luv to have a reason why a system/method I'd created worked......

Unsurprisingly nothing so far......

[hotchip]

"bet the 4 5 6 street because it has a HIGHER PROBABILITY TO HIT","

Well in terms of probability, if you flip a coin a thousand times and it comes up heads each time - the probability of it being tails on the next flip  neither increased nor decreased - the previous flips have no causal effect on future ones. Statistically, however, over the long term, if you have a run of heads, you will get a run of tails. This does not contradict the probability - the odds are 1/2 so in the long term, half of the flips will work out as being heads. So the probability of future events is not altered by previous ones, but statistically it is more probable you will start to flip a lot of tails. In terms of roulette, you could wait for 1-18 to not come up for 30 spins and then bet on it. If you did this, you would actually make money - however you will also only be betting once a week.

[TwoCatSam]

Mr. Chip

Malarkey!

TwoCatSam