Some ideas on table layout betting. (Subject modified)

[nottophammer]

Falkor

It seems to me as if your trying to map every permutation on d/s, how many combos are there

[falkor]

There probably is a finite number. I'm only mapping the DSs and changing the rules until the 500 remains unbroken over 60,000 sets. It might then break if we were to extend the number of sets to 100,000, but then if you lost 500 one set yet won 50 units every 10 sets during the course of 99,999, would you be complaining?

[nottophammer]

There probably is a finite number. I'm only mapping the DSs and changing the rules until the 500 remains unbroken over 60,000 sets. It might then break if we were to extend the number of sets to 100,000, but then if you lost 500 one set yet won 50 units every 10 sets during the course of 99,999, would you be complaining?

surely thats like any method as long as your making enough profit when the loss comes you still have enough of the profits left. Think what members are asking is it possible to give the rules to the betting in a Dummies version

[falkor]

The rules are not final yet. I'm working on final tweaks right now, and it takes 4 hours for each of the test results to come through. I can explain the new rules after that, but the basics have already been explained over and over again with diagrams and everything: DS comes in, bet it until it closes then we are finished with it (repeats are bonus wins); bet selection is max 3 DSs based on repeats; if 4+ open then don't bet at all unless one or more has repeated...

[nottophammer]

answer for a dummy
DS comes in, bet it until it closes then we are finished with it.                  Great get it

(repeats are bonus wins)                                                                          thought we'd finished with it

bet selection is max 3 DSs based on repeats;.                                          So only 3ds bet,  yep get it

if 4+ open then don't bet at all unless one or more has repeated... get the first bit,the under lined part if one repeats
                                                                                                                      we're back to betting 3Ds,at the bets when we
                                                                                                                     stopped betting?     

you see need rules explaned for a dummy still not sure on the +4 bit 

[falkor]

answer for a dummy
DS comes in, bet it until it closes then we are finished with it.                  Great get it

(repeats are bonus wins)                                                                          thought we'd finished with it

bet selection is max 3 DSs based on repeats;.                                          So only 3ds bet,  yep get it

if 4+ open then don't bet at all unless one or more has repeated... get the first bit,the under lined part if one repeats
                                                                                                                      we're back to betting 3Ds,at the bets when we
                                                                                                                     stopped betting?     

you see need rules explaned for a dummy still not sure on the +4 bit

Repeats that happen before the DS closes with a new number!

If 4+ DSs are open then only bet those that have 1 or more repeats. So that begins by betting only 1 DS (the first that's repeated) and you can see exactly how this is played by looking at some attachments about 10 pages prior to this latest page.

[falkor]

[nottophammer]

Thanks Falkor, the sponge is slowly soaking it up, just ran 20 spins and would win 25units,but probabley not done the warrior way


33
32
7
9
32
13
13
2
31
5
9
2
21
29
11
36
0
7
21
32

[falkor]

This is quite an exciting system this one, but to get it right means that the rules will need to be perfected by trial and error. There's 4 factors that affect whether you should attempt the next DS following closure of the previous:
Win Total - the beginning is chaotic so you can miss a DS and not get your first win until DS 4 closes. Even when playing 5 DSs you will miss one if all 6 open up.
Spin # - the sooner it closes the more chance of a losing streak (and vice versa)
Open DSs - how many DSs are open after a close? If there are 3 open then you are more likely to be betting 3,3,3,3 and break the bank
Repeats - this also affects things in combination with the above.

You have to ask yourself: how often can you risk losing 500? Then you need to figure out the right combo of variables above to get the rule correct. So that's what I am currently testing for DS 1 after making everything over-safe. Once DS 1 rule is finalised I can then move onto DS 2.

[falkor]

The opposite to playing this system is waiting for sleeper DSs and betting on more and more of those as they sleep past a certain limit - until one of them wins out of the sleeping pack.

[falkor]

I've got 5 simulations running now on 5 different computers for DS 1 closing at a different spin # to go into watch mode:
<10
<9
<8
<7
<6

For all the sets with bet selection progressions > 24, i.e. long losing streaks, I want to check:
*Number of repeats
*Open DSs
*Win Total

From there I can tweak the DS 1 rules and figure out what the next set of tests will be.

[falkor]

I've now sussed this out after analysing various test results! 

Going into watch mode <10 is more restrictive than going into watch mode when DS 1 closes < 6, hence there are less total wins with <10:

<10 = 9614 total wins for the first 10K sets
< 9 = 9605 total wins for the first 10K sets
< 8 = 9601 total wins for the first 10K sets
< 7 = 9591 total wins for the first 10K sets
< 6 = 9623 total wins for the first 10K sets
< 5 = 10275 total wins for the first 10K sets
< 4 = 11002 total wins for the first 10K sets

The way to figure out the best rule for DS 1 is to just run a SINGLE test: leave out all rules for DS 1 and then note down:
Spin   Repeat   Open   Win Total

A few DS 1 rules can then be formulated based mainly on how many are open, but also on the number of repeats, somewhat:

Spin   Repeat   Open   Win Total   Page
         
9   2   4   2   A2
7   0   4   0   A2

For example, looking at the above DS 1 can tolerate an extra 2 spins if there have been 2 repeats for open = 4.

[falkor]

PROBLEM SETS OUT OF 250,000 FOR DS 1 (>24 bet selection progression)

Spin   Repeat   Open   Win Total   Page (<10)

10   0   4   0   A1
10   0   5   0   B2
12   0   5   0   E1
10   0   5   0   G2
15   5   5   5   G2
13   0   5   0   I2
10   2   4   2   J2

Spin   Repeat   Open   Win Total   Page (<9)

10   0   4   0   A1
9   3   4   3   A2
10   0   5   0   B2
12   0   5   0   E1
9   0   5   0   E2
9   1   4   1   G2
10   0   5   0   G2
15   5   5   5   G2
13   0   5   0   I2
10   2   4   2   J2

Spin   Repeat   Open   Win Total   Page (<

9   3   4   3   A1
10   0   5   0   B2
12   0   5   0   E1
8   0   4   0   E1
8   0   5   0   E1
9   0   5   0   E2
8   0   4   0   E2
8   2   3   2   F2
8   1   3   1   F2
9   1   4   1   G2
10   0   5   0   G2
14   4   5   4   G2
13   0   5   0   I2
10   2   4   2   J2

Spin   Repeat   Open   Win Total   Page (<7)

9   3   4   3   A1
7   0   4   0   A2
10   0   5   0   B2
12   0   5   0   E1
8   0   4   0   E1
8   0   5   0   E1
9   0   5   0   E2
8   2   3   2   F2
8   1   3   1   F2
9   1   4   1   G2
7   2   3   2   G2
10   0   5   0   G2
14   4   5   4   G2
7   0   3   0   H2
9   0   5   0   I2
13   0   5   0   I2
8   1   3   1   J1
10   2   4   2   J2

Spin   Repeat   Open   Win Total   Page (<6)

9   2   4   2   A2
7   0   4   0   A2
10   0   5   0   B2
6   0   3   0   C2
6   0   3   0   D1
12   0   5   0   E1
9   0   5   0   E2
8   2   3   2   F2
8   1   3   1   F2
6   1   3   1   F2
9   1   4   1   G2
7   2   3   2   G2
10   0   5   0   G2
14   4   5   4   G2
6   0   3   0   G2
6   1   3   1   G2
7   0   3   0   H2
8   1   4   1   H2
6   0   3   0   I1
6   0   3   0   I1
6   1   3   1   I2
9   0   5   0   I2
7   0   3   0   J1
8   1   3   1   J1
6   0   3   0   J2

[Azim]

What are the rules in a layman's term?

[falkor]

Spin   Repeat   Open   Win Total   Page (<5)

5   0   3   0   B1
5   0   3   0   B1
10   0   5   0   B2
6   0   3   0   C2
6   0   3   0   D1
5   0   3   0   D1
12   0   5   0   E1
8   0   4   0   E1
11   0   5   0   F2
6   1   3   1   F2
9   1   4   1   G2
7   2   3   2   G2
7   0   3   0   G2
10   0   5   0   G2
14   4   5   4   G2
6   0   3   0   G2
6   1   3   1   G2
10   0   5   0   H2
7   0   3   0   H2
6   0   3   0   I1
6   0   3   0   I1
9   1   4   1   I1
7   0   3   0   I1
9   0   5   0   I2
8   1   3   1   J1
6   0   3   0   J2

Spin   Repeat   Open   Win Total   Page (<4)

9   3   4   3   A1
5   0   3   0   B1
5   0   3   0   B1
5   0   3   0   B1
10   0   5   0   B2
4   0   2   1   C1
8   0   3   0   C1
12   0   5   0   E1
8   0   4   0   E1
11   0   5   0   F2
7   1   3   1   F2
7   2   3   2   G2
14   4   5   4   G2
6   0   3   0   G2
6   1   3   1   G2
10   0   5   0   H2
7   0   3   0   H2
6   0   3   0   I1
9   1   4   1   I1
7   0   3   0   I1
9   0   5   0   I2
8   0   4   0   I2
8   1   3   1   J1
5   0   3   0   J1

Spin   Repeat   Open   Win Total   Page

9   3   4   3   A1
6   0   3   0   A2
7   0   4   0   A2
4   0   1   0   A2
7   1   3   1   B1
10   0   5   0   B2
8   0   3   0   C1
6   0   3   0   D1
4   0   1   0   E2
8   2   3   2   F2
8   1   3   1   F2
7   2   3   2   G2
14   4   5   4   G2
6   0   3   0   G2
5   0   3   0   G2
5   0   3   0   H2
10   0   5   0   H2
6   0   3   0   I1
3   0   1   0   I1
9   1   4   1   I1
3   1   1   1   I1
7   1   3   1   I1
8   0   4   0   I2
7   0   3   0   J1
5   0   3   0   J1
8   1   3   1   J2

So unless I am mistaken the best rules for DS 1 entering Watch Mode to avoid problem sets - but also to allow the most wins - should be something like this:

Spin < 5, Open = 1 or 2
Spin < 9, Open > 2
Spin < 11, Open > 3
Spin < 16, Open = 5

Repeats don't seem to play much of a part and would be too much to remember if we did include them.