Some ideas on table layout betting. (Subject modified)

[falkor]

As we know with Warriors the first DS must close on spin #2-13, and here are some new stats regarding the first DS that has a repeat before it closes:

Spin # (1st repeat), Max Spin # (1st close), Progression till close
2   9   7
3   10   7
4   10   6
5   10   5
6   11   5
7   12   5
8   11   3
9   12   3
10   13   3
11   12   1
12   13   1

*If you get a repeat then start a new progression
*If you get a repeat on spin 2 then DS 1 must close by spin 9
*If you got a repeat on spin 8+ and was playing up to 5 DSs then the next bet would be your max BR / 3! (11-12 = half your max BR!!)

[falkor]

[falkor]

The problem with playing only up to 3 simultaneous DSs (WARRIORS LITE) is that we will often miss the first close - even after a repeat - and the spin number cannot help us avoid it:

Spin # (1st repeat),    Set,   Spin # (1st close),    Note
7   4   8   lost close
4   5   5   lost close
4   11   5   lost close
5   13   6   lost close
3   30   6   lost close
2   34   6   lost close
3   43   4   lost close
7   46   8   lost close
8   47   9   lost close
4   50   6   lost close
5   53   6   lost close
3   56   5   lost close
2   57   7   lost close
3   59   5   lost close
5   80   8   lost close
5   81      repeat
6   81   7   lost close
6   84   7   lost close
2   95   7   lost close
2   97      repeat
3   97   9   lost close
2   101   4   lost close
5   111   7   lost close
3   116   5   lost close
5   121      repeat
7   121   8   lost close
7   127   8   lost close
5   132   6   lost close
4   135   5   lost close
5   144      repeat
7   144   9   lost close
3   150   8   lost close
3   166      repeat
5   166   6   lost close
5   169   6   lost close
5   172   6   lost close
4   178   8   lost close
3   184   4   lost close
4   191   6   lost close

Happens on all spin numbers, including 10 and 11.

[falkor]

Another lite method might be to play:

4 Open DSs
3rd of the chips on Dozen with the same 2 DSs
3rd of the chips on DS
3rd of the chips on DS

5 Open DS
3rd of the chips on 1st Dozen with the same 2 DSs
3rd of the chips on 2nd Dozen with the same 2 DSs
3rd of the chips on DS

But even that can't save you from the "sets from hell" I'll be posting next...

[falkor]

The set in sheet 3 was established as the worst set for playing 3 DSs in over 200,000 trials - and no new records were broken from around 15% into those tests!

Before we can devise the first progression we have to come up with way of avoiding these situations where the first 3 DSs are closed without a win and the 4th one takes a long time to close. Either that or we introduce a stop loss "on the way up" or "on the way down" and accept it as a losing set.

I have more alerts to add to the simulator that might help us make a decision. Playing 5 simultaneous DSs (if you can afford it) is much more predictable and less chaotic.

[falkor]

Those sets can still be played, but need a grand BR like playing 5 DS.

Sheet 1
4 DSs opened at spin 4
DS 1 closed @ spin 6 (max 14 spins for DS 2)
Repeat on open DS @ spin 7!
5 DSs opened @ spin 9
Repeat on open DS @ spin 10!
DS 2 closed @ Spin #12 + 2 repeats = 8 spins max for DS 3
DS 3 closed @ Spin #17-18 = 12 spins max for DS 4

Sheet 2
4 DSs opened @ spin 4
5 DSs opened @ spin 5
6 DSs opened @ spin 6
DS 1 closed @ spin 7 (max 11 spins for DS 2)
DS 2 closed @ Spin #8 = 16 spins max for DS 3
Repeat on open DS @ spin 11!
DS 3 closed @ Spin #9-14 + 1 repeats = 22 spins max for DS 4

Sheet 3
4 DSs opened @ spin 4
5 DSs opened @ spin 5
6 DSs opened @ spin 6
DS 1 closed @ spin 7 (max 11 spins for DS 2)
Repeat on open DS @ spin 8!
DS 2 closed @ Spin #9 + 1 repeats = 13 spins max for DS 3
DS 3 closed @ Spin #17-18 = 12 spins max for DS 4

[falkor]

From what I can tell analysing the above: everything is happening too quickly at the beginning of the cycle and during the chaotic stage, so that the long losing streaks have all been transferred to the 4th DS.

Solution 1:
1) Stop after Open = 4 @ spin 4 (as we already would)
2) Watch for a medium-long gap between DS 1 - 4 before each closes
3) Observe there's a big gap before DS 4 closed
4) Bet on DS 5 or un-hit individual numbers of DS 5 and 6! (if the gap was on DS 2 we would bet for DS 3, and so on..)

Solution 2:
1) Stop for good after Open = 4 (or open = 4 and DS 1 closes by spins 6-7) and accept a losing set at -3 units.

Solution 2 means only wining 3/4 sets and losing 1/4 sets at -3, and we haven't got anything to lose by watching DS 2-4 except time (Solution 1).

[nottophammer]

The wheel layout is a different story though. Quite right iggiv. This d/s bet is good for the Mat,but when you look where d/s 5 and 2 sit on the wheel makes you think if missing the 2 sectors there in, now to take advantage

[nottophammer]

just handy to know where the losing streets are when that losing run comes

[falkor]

From what I can tell analysing the above: everything is happening too quickly at the beginning of the cycle and during the chaotic stage, so that the long losing streaks have all been transferred to the 4th DS.

Solution 1:
1) Stop after Open = 4 @ spin 4 (as we already would)
2) Watch for a medium-long gap between DS 1 - 4 before each closes
3) Observe there's a big gap before DS 4 closed
4) Bet on DS 5 or un-hit individual numbers of DS 5 and 6! (if the gap was on DS 2 we would bet for DS 3, and so on..)

Solution 2:
1) Stop for good after Open = 4 (or open = 4 and DS 1 closes by spins 6-7) and accept a losing set at -3 units.

Solution 2 means only wining 3/4 sets and losing 1/4 sets at -3, and we haven't got anything to lose by watching DS 2-4 except time (Solution 1).

Solution 2 is better to stop after DS 1 closes by spin 7 with at least 3 open - means we forfeit these sets:
14
57
74
95
111
148
158
196
204
242
265
271
282
309
334
349
373
391
403
...etc.

Solution 1 means if we close first 4 DSs too early:
DS 1: spin # 6-7
and
DS 2: spin # 8-12
and
DS 3: spin # 12-17
and
DS 4: spin # 13-21
we can't play DS 5 and have to forfeit:
2727/72704 = 4% of sets

So we go into "watch mode" at DS 1 closed by spin 7 with at least 3 open. I'll now re-evaluate the worst sessions with "watch mode" sets excluded.

[falkor]

Looking better now! 

[vladir]

From what I can tell analysing the above: everything is happening too quickly at the beginning of the cycle and during the chaotic stage, so that the long losing streaks have all been transferred to the 4th DS.

Solution 1:
1) Stop after Open = 4 @ spin 4 (as we already would)
2) Watch for a medium-long gap between DS 1 - 4 before each closes
3) Observe there's a big gap before DS 4 closed
4) Bet on DS 5 or un-hit individual numbers of DS 5 and 6! (if the gap was on DS 2 we would bet for DS 3, and so on..)

Solution 2:
1) Stop for good after Open = 4 (or open = 4 and DS 1 closes by spins 6-7) and accept a losing set at -3 units.

Solution 2 means only wining 3/4 sets and losing 1/4 sets at -3, and we haven't got anything to lose by watching DS 2-4 except time (Solution 1).

If I understand it correctly, I like solution 2 more. I'm not sure it works, but we can make a slow progression there if we are winning 3/4 of the time. Simply increase by 1 unit the base bet for the next set everytime we lose. When we win 2, we reduce 1 unit, until we are in a new plus and get to lvl 1 units.

[falkor]

If I understand it correctly, I like solution 2 more. I'm not sure it works, but we can make a slow progression there if we are winning 3/4 of the time. Simply increase by 1 unit the base bet for the next set everytime we lose. When we win 2, we reduce 1 unit, until we are in a new plus and get to lvl 1 units.

It's much simpler that way, but with the other solution there is more money to be made.

BTW, there were several sets in the "watch mode" demo that were winning sets, but also alerted watch mode when it shouldn't have done; now fixed. And from the testing I've done since, that seems like the only rule we need to beat roulette with just 1 win per set and less than 500 bankroll! So if you get the right progression the game is already beaten. But really we need to learn this through to wins 2-10 and learn watch mode too.

[falkor]

The bankroll needed for set 27618 in my latest test was slightly too high to beat it (800), so we need one more rule to get it down to about 500:
*If DS 2 closes by spin 11 with at least 4 open then enter watch mode. That's unless you want to keep a spare 300 for every 27K sets you play! 

[iggiv]

Falkor, what data do you use for testing? Why won't you test it against different German casino wheels from Spielbank data?
I am very skeptical about all this stuff. There were so many "grails" like this which won for some time then sank after a while.
The best thing to test is with different data from different sources. Each wheel is a different source. But the same RNG or  wheel you are using for example is just one source of data which may work for you for a while. Some guys won on a paper for a million spins for example. And they still are not much better off than they before.