Progression is the only way to win

[Scarface]

The casino has the edge.  However, we have the choice to bet.  We can skip bets.  We can raise and lower our bets at anytime.  And we can change what we're betting on at any time.

In my opinion, the casino edge is not what's causing us to lose.  It's just a small percentage.  I look at it as a 5% tax for playing the game.  What causes us to lose is the variance.  I believe the only way to overcome variance, is with the right bet selection and progression.  Of course not a double up as you lose....more like a slow steady grind. 

What's your thoughts?  Can the right progression overcome the house edge?

[Proofreaders2000]

I'm inclined to agree with you on EC's.  As for the others, the multiplier
should be enough to profit flat-bet (with the occasional losing session).

[Scarface]

I'm thinking the smallest bet you can start with is 1 unit on a EC....1 unit wins 1 unit.  If you bet 1 unit on a single number and hit, then parley the winnings then 2 units will win you $1332.  And there are hundreds of bets between these 2 that you can make to win or break even.

Basically, you can stay on 1 unit bets for 1332 spins before you even raise the wager to 2 units

[cht]

The casino has the edge.  However, we have the choice to bet.  We can skip bets.  We can raise and lower our bets at anytime.  And we can change what we're betting on at any time.

In my opinion, the casino edge is not what's causing us to lose.  It's just a small percentage.  I look at it as a 5% tax for playing the game.

Correct, it's the cost of playing.

What causes us to lose is the variance. 

Yup.

I believe the only way to overcome variance, is with the right bet selection and progression.  Of course not a double up as you lose....more like a slow steady grind.

Everyone who's gone down this progression path have yet to find a way round variance. It's just not possible, deep down we all know it but we keep knocking our heads on the wall.

Improve the accuracy of our bet selection is the only way.

What's your thoughts?  Can the right progression overcome the house edge?

Ofc no. If it can many of us will be rich by now.

[Scarface]

Instead of fighting against variance, why not expect it and use it to our advantage.

Let say we are betting for line 1 to hit (1,2,3).  The payout is 11 to 1.  As long as it hits in the first 12 spins we're in the money.  But what if it don't?  Now we'll bet on line 1 to hit twice in a row...if it wins the first bet, parlay the winnings and bet again....this pays out 156 to 1.  So now as long as it happens in 156 spins we're  good.  If not, bet for 3 hits in a row (parlay the winnings).  This pays out 2184 to 1.  Remember, we're still only betting 1 unit a spin. 

With the parlay bet, we're keeping bet size to a minimum and once variance swings back in your direction (which it will) then cha ching 

[Madi]

It does . Not only 1% or 2%. But more than 50%.

[cht]

Instead of fighting against variance, why not expect it and use it to our advantage.

Let say we are betting for line 1 to hit (1,2,3).  The payout is 11 to 1.  As long as it hits in the first 12 spins we're in the money.  But what if it don't?  Now we'll bet on line 1 to hit twice in a row...if it wins the first bet, parlay the winnings and bet again....this pays out 156 to 1.  So now as long as it happens in 156 spins we're  good.  If not, bet for 3 hits in a row (parlay the winnings).  This pays out 2184 to 1.  Remember, we're still only betting 1 unit a spin. 

With the parlay bet, we're keeping bet size to a minimum and once variance swings back in your direction (which it will) then cha ching 

What if variance does not swing back within that number of spins ?

Use this simple tracker to see the variance visually.

[Scarface]

The house edge of 5% on a 00 wheel will slowly eat away at your bankroll.  BUT I'm confident that when variance does swing back in your favor, it can overcome the house edge.  Variance is what should be feared.  Instead of fearing variance, use it to your advantagr.  If we do not use a steep martingale double as you loose progression, but instead use a parlay then at some point we will have to win (in theory)..just a matter of time

[MoneyT101]

What causes us to lose is the variance.

Finally some real topics that can help people!  Everyone crying about zero, but 0 isnt what beats you!  The negative payout isnt what beats you!

If you cant beat/control the variance you will lose.  There are ways to overcome it!!!

[sugtips]

If you cant beat/control the variance you will lose.  There are ways   to overcome it!!!

Thanks.
What are your ways? Would you like to share it please. Thanks.

[DoctorSudoku]

Finally some real topics that can help people!  Everyone crying about zero, but 0 isnt what beats you!  The negative payout isnt what beats you!

If you cant beat/control the variance you will lose.  There are ways to overcome it!!!

If you are betting the outside group of numbers (ECs, doz, and col), the zeros are a definite contributor to the variance.

If you are playing in Euro casinos and betting on the ECs, then rules -- like "la partage"and ën prison" -- do mitigate the effects of the zero somewhat (though, not for the doz and col).

But, in US casinos, the above player-friendly rules are not there and the 0/00 do make a decent contribution to the variance for all outside bets. You can deny that, but you will do so at your own peril.

[ozon]

I do not know if I should publish it, but my friend has simulated the progression of Mike on the nozero wheel.

link:://betselection.cc/even-chance-8/how-to-get-an-edge-flat-betting-(in-theory)/msg22774/#msg22774

[ozon]

In reality, I tried this approach at betvoyager no zero roulette.
And guess what?
I always played black, in first 300 spins, I had 12 and 13 red series in a row.
Big hole, after 3k spins I am -140 units on minus, I have never even approached zero.
Color series with much more probability than they should.
I do not know if I still have time to continue, and more and more believe that achieving the advantage in the simulations is unreasonable, because in fact even supposedly honest casinos will not give us a win.

[MoneyT101]

Thanks.
What are your ways? Would you like to share it please. Thanks.

I already shared a very good method, as a matter of fact so good.  I regret sharing in the forum 😅

[MoneyT101]

But, in US casinos, the above player-friendly rules are not there and the 0/00 do make a decent contribution to the variance for all outside bets. You can deny that, but you will do so at your own peril.

So here's an example why I say what I say.  I play 200 spins on an EC. 

This is about avg with no progression
Lose 22
Wins 68
Total bets 90

Tell me how much did the 0/00 affect me?