Should or could

[nottophammer]

If members try to win with Non-hits, your starting point is spin 1; you now know how many non-hit left, again spin 2 you'll see how many non-hit left and how many repeats have come.

So should or could is the question.

Winkel you must have millions of spins collected, in your Gut method you give 3 reference points, points 13-25-37;

Point 13; can we say at spin 13 we should of had 2 repeats or do i have to say could?

I would like to think with large volumes of collected data, 2 repeats should have appeared is valid.

I'll show why

[nottophammer]

Above, if 2 repeats should have appeared what is your decision going to be, bet now that a repeat is DUE.

Or just KTF, carry on betting for non-hit, the larger group, but if      SHOULD    is valid, then the decision SHOULD be bet repeat

[nottophammer]

Lets look at this from ROTT (ROSS)



Best tool for seeing the TROT of the non-hit is COUNTBACK. What is countback, it's the 15 non-hit we should get in spins 11-40
Now if you've read GUT( everyone needs to read it) you will know of reference points 13,25,37;

So here we see spin 13; the 12th non-hit has hit, now you think to Winkels reference point 13; you look at countback and see where the 12th should have come spins 15/16: should we not of had 2 repeats by now?


Nimo,Wally the Blue +10

[nottophammer]

So if you decided to bet for a repeat, you've won.
Now non-hit, we see the 13th has hit, look to its position on countback, non-hit need to slow, 5 non-hit is fair in spins 11-20; but the usual is 7,+2: 1 more non-hit for the fair game or 3 more to get the usual, me i'd wait till spin18, if more non-hit come and we're just watching so what, you already have won some units.

[nottophammer]

okay the game has balanced by repeats, so waiting has got to spin 18, i would now start to bet for the 14th non-hit.
If 2 more non-hit come it will be 6,+1 if only 1 more non-hit the fair game of 5 non-hit will have come meaning an even game.

Lets assume we end 5,+0 in the next 10 spins 21-30 the larger group are still favorite to show.

Nextyear look betting on 5

[nottophammer]

More repeats than non-hit

[nottophammer]

14th is in and non-hit are slow. If its a fair game at spin 29/30 it will be 10,+0;  5,5 so possible 5 more non-hit, but usual is 12,+2;  7,5; so the larger group should show, so bet for 15th

[jekhb76]

I think the HG consit of capturing the uniques and the repeaters All at once. To make sure None Will slip through our fingers.

[nottophammer]

15th 4 spins if you was just watching the average to hit is 2 spins. The non-hit are like snails so slow here at reference 25 non-hit behind.
If next 4 spins are non-hit it is a balanced game.

[Taotie]

Seriously notto, I don't understand a bloody word you're saying, sorry.


....anyone else?

[nottophammer]

I think the HG consit of capturing the uniques and the repeaters All at once. To make sure None Will slip through our fingers.

Think of a river, you're standing on the riverbank with your net. Well are we not in a stream of spins, be it 1/37; we don't know how the stream will come.

So if you collect 1000's of streams is there not an average. So do I just throw the average 15.7 non-hit in spins 11-40 away?

[nottophammer]

Seriously notto, I don't understand a bloody word you're saying, sorry.


....anyone else?

Good then we wont see you in here again

[nottophammer]

[nottophammer]

There 15 non-hit in spins 11-40

Numbers supplied by Mortagon.

[nottophammer]

Nothing to the few