37 back to basics

[SWEET]

wait

[SWEET]

Red 
5=x
1=empty
9=x
7=empty
12=x
3=x

Black
4=x
2=empty
6=x
11=empty
8=xx
10=empty

roulette
bv4000.

19
24
35

14
21
6..

31
26
4..

8..
22
24

31
5..
22

0
3..
34

30
18
20

34
19
12..

0
16
15

28
34
8..

36
13
9..

28
30
29

15

[nottophammer]

6th sense or maybe not.
This is not Vaddis. He's been Nottopharmer. Interceptor.
Just watch him in memberslist

[6th-sense]

Yup it's mumbojumbo again...

[Gogi357]

When I first came accross Dyk's puzzle I tried to replicate it and ran some experiments, too. So, I was once tracking in horizontal lines like:

XyyX
XyyyyyyyX
XyyyyyyyyyyX
XyX
XyyyyyX
XyyyyyyyyX
XyyyX
XyyyyyX
XyyyyyyyyyX

Where X is the repeater, and Y are whatever numbers came in between. This kind of reminded me of a pine tree, but also made me think the thing was sort of "breathing". It was slowly building up and then bang. I didn't manage to use this observation, but it still tickles the back of my mind. Moreover, I also came accross an old post of his where he mentions it.

6th, since you are still here, I would really appreciate your 2 cents.

[Interceptor]

Well, 6th, you are right again. To return to this topic, the holy grail is not only in one third, it is equally in all thirds, imagine roulette as if there were none and you will get a different picture. And you notto just click on the rebet button on your touch screen and you've already found it. 🙂

[ᶦ ᵃᵐ|Ä-łëx]

Sweet you are over complicating it: One way you can go is applying what you are observing with rrbb order , so it remains dynamic.

[ᶦ ᵃᵐ|Ä-łëx]

Also, how you define halves when there are only 3 positions?

Hit/Unhit

[SWEET]

Thank Alex,
 for your thought,
 please elaborate,
Thanks

[Gogi357]

Big thanks, Alex!
Wonder why silly me never paid attention.🙄
Let's try again. 🙂

[Gogi357]

I'd like to describe a simple method based on this and other posts from the same school of though. It's not a grail, nor win a million overnight. It's not even a constant winner. Just another "win some, loose some", RIP Lemmy, system.

Spoiler alert - it's a 2 dozen bet so if you don't fancy playing such, don't bother reading. It also ignores the existence of the green goblin.

Key concepts – out of the box, change of perspective, putting random in order, creating your own game, creating and exploring dependencies etc.

Pros – Simplicity. It requires no aids whatsoever. No pen and paper, nor excel, nor custom-built trackers.

Cons – Obviously, the payout of a 2 dozen bet.

Important note – actually the most important of the very most and most very important ones – IT'S A RANDOM GAME in which spins, events, apples and pears, or whatever you call'em ARE INDEPENDENT FROM EACH OTHER!!!

To start, the player needs to familiarize with the two concepts described below.

Concept 1 – Labels

H stands for Hit
U stands for Unhit

Imagine there are 3 socks in a drawer. You take out one and label it H, you label H every sock you take out. When you put the sock back in the drawer, you label it U. And do the same for the rest of the socks. Any sock can only be H or U. Never both, never none.

An important aspect of the labels – even after gazillion spins the difference in their count can't exceed 3. No such sequence is possible. This is important to keep in mind while testing, kind of a kill switch. 

Concept 2 – Variance

*I'm still struggling to find the correct term for this, as I'm not native English speaker. It might be better to call it deviation, fluctuation, that thing, whatever...

Initially there are 3 socks in our fantasy drawer. Hence, 3 Unhits. I call this state of balance. This is also 0 variance. The opposite state, when all socks are out is balanced state too and variance is 3.

One sock out brings variance 1, two socks out variance 2, three socks out variance 3. One sock back in the drawer again variance 2. Same sock back out - variance 3. And so on...

The most important aspect of variance is that it's a living thing. It changes after every spin, number, event... It does not repeat!

Another important note regarding it, is that after gazillion spins it will show the following averages:
Variance 0 – 1/8
Variance 1 – 3/8
Variance 2 – 3/8
Variance 3 – 1/8
...or in simple terms it mostly alternates between 1 and 2 – 1U+2H, or 2U+1H.

How to play

Check the last dozen, let's say it was 2. Label it H. Our labels are 2U & 1H. Variance has become 1. We know that variance must change so it will become either 0 or 2. In order to go back to zero we need dozen 2 to repeat, change its label to U, and we end up with 3 U again.

The other option variance has is to become 2. For this to happen we need the other 2 dozens. Any of them will change our labeling to 1U & 2H, and variance will become 2.

Referring to the beginning of this post SPINS ARE INDEPENDENT FROM EACH OTHER and randomness couldn't care less about us. There is no reason whatsoever to believe that dozen 2 will or will not repeat. All 3 dozens are equally likely to appear on any spin, and to be more precise odds are exactly 1/3 each.

Variance though is not a dozen and it has clearly shown its own different statistically proven odds. Variance 0 and 3 show up approximately 1250 times each in a sequence of 10k spins, and 1 and 2 show up approximately 3750 times each in the same sequence. Based on this we can conclude that there is 1/8 chance for variance to become 0 and 3/8 for it becoming 2.

Therefore, we have 1/3 combined with 1/8 chance for a repeat of dozen 2 and 2/3 combined with 3/8 for dozens 1 and 3. In other words, there is a bias against direct repeat. Hence we bet on dozens 1 & 3.

In case of a win we will have the same "favourable" conditions for our next bet, targeting variance 1. In case of loss and variance being 0 again, there will be no bias, so we skip our bet. When new dozen is out, we label accordingly and act accordingly.

Final thoughts

I know this pretty much looks like "bet against the last dozen out". And it is most of the time.
But:

• We know why we do it.
• We do not bet every spin but only when certain favourable conditions are met.

[praline]

Great stuff about variance Gogi! Thanks

I made some stats for the "Variance options" to see if it holds constant over different permutations of spins like cycles. And it's not))

(Small remark: I felt like it wasn't the right thing to do, but I just can't pass without testing some "out of the box" ideas with "yet another system recipe". "Yet another system recipe" method from priyanka helps a lot in finding "run from hell" for any system you are about to lose your money with)))

Dozens:

100spins (6sets)

0V 14  8  21  5  9  14
1V 42  35 45  34. 32 34
2V 36. 42 29. 45. 41 36
3V 8.  15 5.  16. 18 16

1000s
0V 130
1V 377
2V 370
3v 123

Lines

1000spins (2 sets)

0V 9  28
1V 78 115
2V 225 240
3V 327 295
4V 249 215
5V 95. 90
6V 17. 17

So not so "constant" but very biased)))
Now I wonder what will happen when I put it all in the oven and bake it with a pitch of cycles and some order)

Time to convert wondering to practice, wondering for 10 years didn't help))


(During my test I found that instead of 25/75 ratio for V0V3/V1V2 roulette can easily produce 37/63 and 41/59.

So pay attention on where and why you are "flushing" your money, fellas!

Have a nice day, everybody!

[praline]

Out of interest? Really?

Let's wait till someone will post more...lol

[Gogi357]

Let it sink in LOL

[praline]

There was one forum member that I don't completely respect (maybe because I know him for too much time) and often our discussions ended in a very negative way, but his honesty, dedication and ambitions always attracted me.

however once he said:

Time to convert wondering to practice, wondering for 10 years didn't help))

Have a nice day everybody!