Some analogy betweeen roulette and river or wind

[Bebediktus3]

In talks with some guys found a very nice analogy - the game is like a river. If we jump to it - we usually go to one side - to the lower side, that is like is in a real game - money goes from our pocket to casino sea...

We can all left as it is  - this way all results are very predictable - longer we are in that river - more and farther we are into the direction to minus.

But we can grow up our muscles and swim against the stream.

Canto board the boat and rowing against the stream...

But how to use the stream for moving to the opposite direction? As talks Turbo and some others ? Against wind that is possible, but that needs quite big knowledge  .

[Roulettebeater]

In talks with some guys found a very nice analogy - the game is like a river. If we jump to it - we usually go to one side - to the lower side, that is like is in a real game - money goes from our pocket to casino sea...

We can all left as it is  - this way all results are very predictable - longer we are in that river - more and farther we are into the direction to minus.

But we can grow up our muscles and swim against the stream.

Canto board the boat and rowing against the stream...

But how to use the stream for moving to the opposite direction? As talks Turbo and some others ? Against wind that is possible, but that needs quite big knowledge  .

The best way is to boyckot casino games and roulette is on the top of them !

[Bebediktus3]

The best way is to boyckot casino games and roulette is on the top of them !

That is the easiest way, but it does not give us anything.  Will CASK become champions of  Euroleague yesterday if they boycotted game? Of course - no

[nottophammer]

As talks Turbo and some others ? Against wind that is possible, but that needs quite big knowledge  .

When you go out; don't you listen to the weather forcast?

[Roulettebeater]

That is the easiest way, but it does not give us anything.  Will CASK become champions of  Euroleague yesterday if they boycotted game? Of course - no

No, that’s not what I meant
If we boycott casino, they will shut down their business, players won’t win (if they barely can win) and casino won’t win either !

[Bebediktus3]

If we boycott casino, they will shut down their business, players won’t win (if they barely can win) and casino won’t win either !

That is clear that they will not win. But for that is analogy - is a river - you can not enter to it and move to which side you want, but from that, you do not get anything - get you can only if you will move in the river against stream!

[Bebediktus3]

When you go out; don't you listen to the weather forcast?

Usually, I check it when need on the internet for example. But what from that?

[nottophammer]

Imagine when you step out you home; Have you not listen to the weather forecast?
So these weather experts; do you trust them?
How have they got too where they are today? Predicting today’s weather?
They have multiple data models that forecast the weather. These models give you an idea of what to expect.
Now if you collect umpteen million sets of 1/37; collected in groups of whatever you desire! Me groups of 60 plus spins, but no more than 148 if I’m lucky.
You could then use your collected data to help you navigate the 1/37 spins, like this.



But like the expert weather forecasters who get it wrong; you still have to make decisions along the way.

[nottophammer]

Usually, I check it when need on the internet for example. But what from that?

So here is set 430; which was used on page 261@Turbo. It's 148 numbers from Random.org
Now look at the non-hits all 37 numbers have been hit before 148 spins of 1/37.


The 1st 10 spins had 9 non-hit and one repeat; so you can see the 10th non-hit took 1 spin.
This is 1 set of 730; So how fast do non-hits, hit.
Do some collecting and you'll have some data to help make decisions; like collecting umpteen weather models to predict

[nottophammer]

How the non-hit came for those 60 spins

[Bebediktus3]

They have multiple data models that forecast the weather. These models give you an idea of what to expect.

Do some collecting and you'll have some data to help make decisions; like collecting umpteen weather models to predict

Of course, that do weather prognosers, the same do roulette advanced player which predict what will be.

But the main problem is data, which somebody collects. It can be worth something, or not worth... and one more simply collected data can be wrongly used...

[Firefox]

I like the idea of a river and getting carried downstream.

The longer you stay in, the further you get carried.

But how to swim upstream? Increase prediction accuracy is the only way without altering the pay off, or stealing chips, or past posting.... well past posting is just a cheating way of increasing prediction accuracy, I guess.

Rather than all these graphs which go up, I attach one of my own simulations which goes down, and this is what happens almost every time if you swim in the river 50k spins, not the 100 or 200 spins typically shown in the winning charts.

[Bebediktus3]

But how to swim upstream? Increase prediction accuracy is the only way

You are absolutely right - you must know something what not know others till still is possible to do bets...nothing more you need 

[Steve]

Notto you still aren't understanding your theories are just fallacy. Your accuracy is unchanged. You'll know with proper tests.

[Firefox]

Worth noting in my simulation above that I was winning 50 units or so even after 10k or 15k spins.

This is reasonably typical. Eddies in the current sometimes push you upstream short or even medium term. These are akin to the selected graphs of a few hundred spins people are fond of posting.

I have simulated 1000s upon 1000s of these games. I usually find the 10k to 20k spin mark is a point where the main current catches up with winners. That's if the simulation doesn't lose from the very first spin.