Beating roulette with math..

[Fripper]

Thanks guys. Good questions aleks06, I will try to answer them later on.

Mr.ore, thanks for you graphs.
As you say: After a winning streak there is almost always a losing streak, and the opposite.
You suggest a positive progression when we have a winning streak, am I right? If so, how do we know when a positive run will happen? Shall we assume that after a longer losing streak we will have a winning streak? I find that very risky tho..

----------------
Session 2 from bayes
Did bet red.

74 reds, 117 blacks

+9 in 39 spins, ended first labby
+12 in 83 spins, ended second labby
+13 in 134 spins, ended third labby
+18 in 220 spins, ended forth labby

Highest bet 123 units.
Lowest point -241 units.

This was a harder session, the hard part was the labby 3 and 4. Needed more spins in the end to end the labby. Still, the forth labby only needed 86 spins.

Will attach both RX file and excel file for you guys to study.

Cheers

[Bayes]

I get an error using openoffice when I try to open the excel file. mr.ore, you're a Linux user, any luck opening the file?

[Fripper]

I get an error using openoffice when I try to open the excel file. mr.ore, you're a Linux user, any luck opening the file?

Bayes, I get a question when I try to open it with excel, but I only press yes and it opens. I don't know if it will work with openoffice tho..

The excel file is the same as "Betting history" in RX so just open the other .zip file 

[mr.ore]

Part of the winnings might be used to try a positive progression, because sooner or later you will have to take a loss. Positive progression should compensate for that.

On no zero roulette ECs, there is a simple system for a win - play until you reach your target, or you lose your bankroll, whatever comes first. Probability to double your banrkoll is 1/2.

On no zero roulette ECs, if you have X unit bankroll and want to win(W) Y units (target = X+Y), probability that you will win Y units before you lose(L) that X units is:

P(W) = X/(X+Y)

P(L) = 1 - P(W) = 1-(X/(X+Y) = (X+Y-X)/(X+Y) = Y/(X+Y)

So for example, you have two units, what is the probability that you win one unit before losing two? P(W) = 2/(2+1) = 2/3. In no zero roulette, any chance with any payout can be simulated with even chance. If you win one unit before losing two, you write W, and if you lose two units write L, the Ws will be there 66,666% and L% 33,333% of time on average. You can even use that old WL methodology on these, if you thing it is useful.

To simulate a dozen: X=1, Y=2, P(W) = 1/(1+2) = 1/3

So any chance can be simulated this way. How to use that? Maybe in the same way as gambler's fallacy is used... If you bet 34 numbers, you usually win that one unit. So if you see a drawdown of 34 units from one point to another, you might take a risk and bet with a bankroll of 34 units until you are one unit in profit. This is the same as betting that last four numbers won't hit. This will tank in long term, of course, but maybe it would be useful for some big bets. Like delaying a bet of 100 units to certain event. It would need 34*100 = 3400 bankroll to have that high probability. In zero(s) roulette impossible feat because of house edge, maybe lover a target for recover by 1/37 for every unit bet. Or maybe use inside chances to survive longer...

Just thoughts...

[mr.ore]

rename to .xlsx
works in LibreOffice ok

[mr.ore]

Two sessions from hell, first is that from Bayes, second from the xlsx file.

[Fripper]

Hi guys,

First of all thank you fripper for your work and help, I've been following this thread since the beginning and I read belgian's posts like 100 times but I still don't understand a lot of things and I have few questions for my first post.

1/ In the file "a harder session" you start betting on black and then you stop for betting on High why ? the main idea is you will always find at least 65/135 in 200 spins, isnt it ?

2/ I don't understand how you decide to combine the even chances to keep the bets low.

3/ what bankroll would you suggest to play this belgian said 1500/2000 units. . .

4/ could you give a little sample of how you play the labby on few spins plz

I will have more questions for later but first I m gonna study your excel files

sry for my very poor English I hope you will understand

cheers

Thanks aleks06, appreciated  

1) I will quote this one, hope you understand.
"If a series of 4 appear I stop betting till the series brakes. Then continue the betting. In this way I don't have any problem with 68% (theoretical appearance % of series of 1,2 and 3) of the charts in terms of losing a bet in the labby. When a series of 4 or longer appears, it means my labby contains 2 more figures. The dangerous chart is therefore the appearance of alternating series of 4 and longer. After occurrence of 2 alternating series of 4, I will transfer half of the figures to another even chance that is the most choppy to divide the risks."

So practically when I have had lost two series of 4 I divide all my bets and put half on another EC and start a labby there to.
RRRR BRBRBR RRRR
If I had bet on black on this occasion, I would have stopped after the last 4 reds and waited until the serie ends.
In the same time I divide into another EC because I have lost 2 series of 4.


2) The answer is in the above text. If not, please rewrite your question.

3) Well, a bankroll of 1000 would be more than safe. Ofcourse maybe this can fall when you get like 90 reds and 10 blacks in 100 spins. But how often does that occur? We are still gambling as Belgian said.
I have only been down like 600 units and that is in the worst sessions of 700000 spins.
You will build up your bankroll all the time and if a losing session occurs and you lose 1000 units. That can't happen very often, that I'm sure of  

4) Ok, start with this: 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1
Bet red

1 unit |  R. Win 1 unit, labby is the same : 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1     +1
wait next spin because you won first bet in that figure
R

1 unit | B .Lose 1 unit
2 units | R. Win 4 units, labby is the same (because we are even or +1) 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1    +2

1 unit | R. Win 1 unit, labby is the same 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1    +3
wait next spin because you won first bet in that figure
B

1 unit | B. Lose 1 unit
2 units | B. Lose 2 unit. Labby now : 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,2      +0

2 units | B. Lose 2 unit
4 units | B. Lose 4 unit. That is: 2+4 = 6/2 = 3. Labby now: 0,0,0,0,0,1,1,2,3,3       -6

Now we wait until the serie of blacks breaks

B
B
R

3 units | R. Win 3 units. Labby now : 0,0,0,0,1,1,2,3          -3
wait next spin because you won first bet in that figure

3 units | B. Lose 3 units
6 units | R. win 6 units. Labby now : 0,0,0,1,1,2            +0

2 units | R. Win 2 units. Labby now : 0,0,1,1    
wait next spin because you won first bet in that figure      +2
R

1 unit | R. Win 1 unit. Labby now : 0,1
wait next spin because you won first bet in that figure        +3
B

1 unit | R. Win 1 unit. Labby now : 1
wait next spin because you won first bet in that figure        +4

B

1 unit | B. Lose 1 unit.
2 units | R. Win 2 units. End of labby.               +5

24 spins
12 reds, 12 blacks
+5 units

[aleks06]

thank you for your valuable assistance that helped a lot

I need to practice now 

This concept seems really promising

cheers

[aleks06]

fripper I ve just made my first try, would u please have a look on my trial and identify the errors ? I did not finish it cos I need ur tips to keep the bets low I guess I have to transfer half figures to another even chance. . .

[Fripper]

Fripper I ve just made my first try, would you please have a look on my trial and identify the errors ? I did not finish it cos I need your tips to keep the bets low I guess I have to transfer half figures to another even chance. . .

Hi, you played it almost right.

Look at how I played it.

Download this two people, they are a good explanation I think.

Both text file and excel file attached.

[aleks06]

Thanks  it helped me a lot hehe

I thought you stop betting when a serie of 4 losing bets placed appear

"1 unit | R.   Win 1 unit, labby is the same 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1    +3
wait next spin because you won first bet in that figure
B

1 unit | B.   Lose 1 unit
2 units | B.   Lose 2 unit.   Labby now : 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,2      +0

2 units | B.   Lose 2 unit
4 units | B.   Lose 4 unit.   That is: 2+4 = 6/2 = 3.   Labby now: 0,0,0,0,0,1,1,2,3,3       -6

Now we wait until the serie of blacks breaks"


Anyway its just a detail. 

Is there a reason for choosing HIGH ? is it the less choppy one ?

and spin 127 the labby is : 2,3,7,8,15,15,15
u could have transfer half figures to HIGH again maybe ?

Do you have a bet size limit ? like max 15 and then you transfer the figures ?

[Fripper]

Thanks  it helped me a lot hehe

I thought you stop betting when a serie of 4 losing bets placed appear

Yes you are right. That was wrong of me.
I always stop if any losing streak of 4 appear. It could be:
RRR0
R0RR

In this case, we had 5 Blacks before I stopped, we should have stopped after only four.

Thanks for notice that.

Is there a reason for choosing HIGH ? is it the less choppy one ?

Yes.
I choose the most choppy one.
You can choose between the EC, like Even/Odd and High/Low.
I usually check which one of the four which is the most choppy one and bet on it. 

and spin 127 the labby is : 2,3,7,8,15,15,15
u could have transfer half figures to HIGH again maybe ?

Do you mean spin 107? I see what you did there

Well no, I wouldn't do that before 2 series of 4 have come out.
In this case, from spin 98, this is the first losing streak of 4. If a new losing streak of 4 had come up later on in that labby I would have transfer half of the bets to another EC.

Do you have a bet size limit ? like max 15 and then you transfer the figures ?

No, I only follow the rules.
When two losing streaks of 4 has come, I transfer ca half of the bets to another EC.

Cheers

[aleks06]

Ok so you divide the labby every time you have 2 series of 4 in the same labby.   It's clearer now thanks.  I'll do some tests tonight

Do you think you will play it for real one day ?

[Fripper]

Yes sir, you got it

Test it until it is cristal clear for you. I have tested a lot and I feel very comfortable with it now.

I have already started to play for real  

[Fripper]

I have already started to play for real  

But it's only with very small bets, 0,01$