Yep, more gamblers fallacy for you. GOOD TIMES!

[MrJ]

I'll re-ask the question. This is for Kelly or any Advantage-play person. >> A wheel is 99.999% balanced, no bias. Would you pick the hot number(s) to play OR it makes no difference? If you would choose the hot number(s), why?

Ken

[kelly]

If im guaranteed no bias i will just flip a coin since it dont mean a shit. But since such a guarantee will have to be renewed from time to time i would probably still pick the hot numbers so i wont be trapped with physicly cold numbers before the guarantee was renewed.

[MrJ]

A quote from myself: "If you would choose the hot number(s), why?"

Here is the answer you will NOT hear from the Advantage-play crew >> "......because the
hot number(s) have a better (or higher) chance of hitting".

Once they say that, they are fu**ed !!! Why? Its ADMITTING, it is possible to make some good money WITHOUT using Advantage-play and that puts them on the spot......afterall.....they could be wrong.

Ken

[MrJ]

"If I'm guaranteed no bias i will just flip a coin since it don't mean a thing" >>> Thank you.

Ken

[kelly]

Just look at bayes test. There is no need to bring up AP in this, since its an entirely different story. Fact is, it doesn`t matter wether you play hot or cold numbers. I have done tons of tests on real spins from Hamburg, Wiesbaden, Hittfeld, Hohensyburg you name it, and  it doesn`t matter. The result is ALWAYS in the area of -2.7% of the wager.  You are wearing black AP patches in front of your eyes.   

[MrJ]

"Fact is, it doesn`t matter wether you play hot or cold numbers" >>> I will not tolerate you using the word 'fact'. I'll chase you around every forum if I have to. You will NOT inject your beliefs....thats all they are, beliefs !!! If you say 'fact' 500 times, I'll disagree with you 500 times.

Ken

[kelly]

The fact is that the tests shows that there is no difference. Even Bayes last test shows it.  Turbo genius tests showed it.  Thats fact.

[MrJ]

I'll repeat this 10,000,000 times. You should not put every example of gamblers fallacy into one nice, convenient group. Playing the #20 TEMPORARILY because it has hit 5 times in the last 16 spins is NOT the same as playing a Marty or playing the #17 because it has not hit in the last 300 spins (due). They are ALL NOT the same.

Ken

[MrJ]

The fact is that the tests shows that there is no difference. Even Bayes last test shows it.  Turbo genius tests showed it.  that's fact.

What about money in a wallet? (Alot of money I might add) Does that play a part in the tests?

Ken

[kelly]

The results are the same.  We can run whatever combination with whatever name you wanna call it, the return of the wager is the same.

[MrJ]

So I've been getting LUCKY for the last 4.5 years? So on my next casino visit,
I should not play a pre-chosen method, just take a few chips, toss them in the air and bet where they land. Its the EXACT SAME THING, CORRECT?

Ken

[kelly]

There are winners and losers every day in the casino.  You might have won, what do i know.  If i come into the casino and puts a bet on 22 i refuse to believe that just because you came 2 hours earlyer, has an advantage on betting 23 because it has hit a few more times recently. Unless......you know the swear word (bias)


PS: Dont know. You were betting sleepers for 2.5 years and winning, now you are betting hot numbers and winning. As i see it, you might as well just toss the chips on the table, you are always winning,

[MrJ]

"You were betting sleepers for 2.5 years and winning" >>> Please quote all my posts not just the ones making me look bad. I have said MANY times....yes I did make ALOT of money from sleepers (using progressions) but it all came falling down. Each of my losses was over 3K and there were quite a few. You make it sound like I've been betting on hot number for 13 days. And when I say hot, I'm talking 1-2 numbers (once in a blue moon, 3). I dont see the LOGIC, some people will post, play 5 hot numbers. I disagree with that.

Ken

[kelly]

I think your 4.5 year winning time line is a bit skewed then.  This is some 19 months ago.


Posted: 04-Apr-10 [/size]The way I do it...A street must not hit for at least 36 spins. This is more common than people think. I then wait for it to hit. My average for that is 14 more spins. After it hits, I then start a 42 step progression. My other way of playing.....Same rules but after it hits, bet the other two numbers in that street, 56 step progression. Ken[/size]

[MrJ]

Lets do this again. I have been playing (losing or winning) for around 8.5 years (est.) For around the last 4.5 years (est.) I am UP quite nicely. *MIXED* in with that 4.5 years is, the beginning of the end for sleepers, hot numbers and 3-5 other methods not related to hot or cold. Its not like one day a person is playing sleepers and the next day, they say f**k it, from now on, I'll play hot numbers. Who switches over night?

Its almost 1pm here, I'm off to the casino AGAIN for a few hours before the weekend rush. Yesterday, +$800 playing ONE hot number. Today? Who knows, I sure hope I get 'lucky'.

Ken