Some ideas on table layout betting. (Subject modified)

[falkor]

OMG, I AM SO PROUD OF THIS SPREADSHEET!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

Now we can get down to figuring out some rules - YEAH!!! 

Bump!

[falkor]

Basic Rules (not including MM)

Any volunteers to explain the basics for RouletteGhost and co?

Starting session/bankroll, the beginning of the cycle and closing the first DS.

*The beginning of the cycle is crucial to understanding how the rest of the set will play out.

*You can incur a gap of 0-12 losses before the first DS closes at spin 2-13.

*Quick closes will occur more frequently than long closures (average is 3 spins for DS 1), but you still need a big bankroll to allow for a potential progression (beginning with a few flat-bets) of up to 12 losses.

*Repeats can help cut down the max opening progression from about 12 down to 8, and early ones can also play a part in reducing later losses (see below).

*Playing 5 simultaneous DSs requires a bankroll of at least 1,000, but is only likely to miss during 1 situation when 6 DSs are open and you were forced to miss out a bet.

*Missing out certain bets and playing a maximum of 3 DSs - cornering the open DSs based on those that have repeated and those open in the same dozen - is recommended to keep the bankroll at less than 500; simply moving to 4+ DSs will double that requirement.

*Sometimes you will miss the first DS and/or accompanying repeats - particularly after 6 DSs have opened without a close (2% of the time), so the first half of the set can be quite chaotic at times. Can the 2nd be missed too playing up to 3 DSs - even with effective cornering? If so a higher bankroll may be needed or stop loss (or missing out more bets, i.e virtual losses).

*The quicker the first DS closes the more proceeding danger there is of a larger gap before any one (only one!) of the next DSs (or collection of evenly distributed medium gaps).

*The longer the first DS takes to close the quicker the 2nd DS will close:
Spin #2-6 = up to 14 spins for DS 2 (average 1)
Spin #7 = up to 11 spins for DS 2 (average 1)
Spin #8-10 = up to 8 spins for DS 2 (average 1)
Spin #11 = up to 4 spins for DS 2 (average 1)
Spin #12-13 (including minimum of 3 repeats) = up to 3 spins for DS 2 (average 0-1)

*Though DS 3-4 do not concern us at the beginning, they are also heavily affected by the opening DS, so thinking ahead is wise:
Spin #12-13 - the longest gap before DS 1 closes - means DS 2,3 and 4 will close in a maximum of 2,6 and 5 spins respectively. That's quite a revelation considering that DS 3 to DS 4 under normal circumstances can have a losing streak of up to 23, so the reduction is drastic! Further medium gaps in the proceeding DSs means even less spins for DS 3-4 to close.

*High opening gaps in combination with 1 or more repeats can also reduce the spins between hits for the 2nd, 3rd and 4th; in this way DS 2 is affected as follows:
Spin #2-6 + 1 repeat = 14 spins down to 13 max for DS 2 (average 1)
Spin #2-6 + 2 repeats = 14 spins down to 8 max for DS 2 (average 2)
Spin #2-6 + 3 repeats = 14 spins down to 3 max for DS 2 (average 2)
Spin #7 + 1-3 repeats = 11 spins down to 7-11 max for DS 2 (average 1)
Spin #7 + 4 repeats = 11 spins down to 4 max for DS 2 (average 4)
Spin #8-10 + 1-3 repeats = 8 spins down to 6-8 max for DS 2 (average 1)
Spin #8-10 + 4 repeats = 8 spins down to max 5 for DS 2 (average 1)
Spin #8-10 + 5 repeats = 8 spins down to max 2 for DS 2 (average 1)
Spin #11 + 1-5 repeats = 4 spins down to max 1-4 for DS 2 (average 0)
Spin #12-13 + 5 repeats = 3 spins down to max 1 for DS 2 (average 0)

*Once 3 DSs have been closed then you are unlikely to miss the 4th DS because you go back to playing the remaining 3 open DSs simultaneously, so "half time" is over, the 2nd half begins, and you can even consider going for the 5th DS depending on what spin number you are at and how many repeats you had in total - perhaps just betting the unhit individual numbers of the remaining two!

Bump!

[JimmieB]

Thanks Falkor

I actually read it this time

[falkor]

Here's my first simulation with actual placed bets, but they are flat-bets for now (like Nick's test) until I've found out what the longest losing streak is. The set ends after the first win (for now).

[falkor]

Set 23 is most troublesome one if you can only afford to bet max 3 DSs. I thought about this situation a lot over the past week. The idea is that you lose 3 units, but keep an eye on DS4 in case a repeat comes in, which it did, so the next win would not be far away: bet 3,6,12,24,48,96 (that should be more than enough). The simulator is still too basic to deal with that right now though.

[vladir]

Set 23 is most troublesome one if you can only afford to bet max 3 DSs. I thought about this situation a lot over the past week. The idea is that you lose 3 units, but keep an eye on DS4 in case a repeat comes in, which it did, so the next win would not be far away: bet 3,6,12,24,48,96 (that should be more than enough). The simulator is still too basic to deal with that right now though.

What about identifying troublesome situations and simply not bet them when facing them?

[iggiv]

Falkor,

70k spins is not enough for conclusion.

Check all German wheels available through RX. You may be get unpleasant surprise. But better in a test, than  with real money.

[winkel]

Here's my first simulation with actual placed bets, but they are flat-bets for now (like Nick's test) until I've found out what the longest losing streak is. The set ends after the first win (for now).

a loss of 107 Units 

this is beyond winkels GUT

 

BTW: Aren´t you ashamed to use tweaks from GUT (jump back etc.) and claiming you found something new?

And the tissuerolls of your proof of what comes next are senseless as bringing timber to a wood.
Even if one DS has a hitrate of 22% there are still 78% against ist. 

[Rewster88]

Ok i tested something thats seems to work pretty good. Bet every ds as it comes and at a unit like this:

28.  Bet ds 5 with 1 unit
2.    Bet ds 1 with 2 units and 2 units on ds5
13.  3 units on ds 5, 1, 3.
33.  4 units on 5,1,3,6
36.  Hit ds 6.  Now you go back to 3 units on 5,1,3
5.    Hit . go back to 2 units on 5, 3

You play until no streets are remaining or till 3 ds are closed ( 3 ds have 2 hits each)

[SamNL]

Hey Rewster,

Yesterday I played it almost exactly like you did.
The bet selection that I used yesterday was the bet selection that Nick explained. Went pretty well. I was playing around with the foolproof progression. I also reset the progression when I am on a new high.

[Rewster88]

Haha best raar om engels tegen een Nederlander te praten maar voor de rest dan:

The only prob is when a closed street keeps hitting. Example:

Ds 1,2,3,4. Are bet with 4 units and 5, 6 hitting 5 times in a row. The zero should be covered all time.

[nottophammer]

if we talk about the idea to bet on a DS which hit a few times before and has 2 new numbers recently i tested it a couple of times and it won. But i reject this idea as consistently winning. Simply impossible. It's like with group of hot numbers. It may win for a while but then it goes down. Sorry, just my opinion. I am totally against betting according to the table layout. The wheel layout is a different story though.

The wheel layout is a different story though. Quite right iggiv. This d/s bet is good for the Mat,but when you look where d/s 5 and 2 sit on the wheel makes you think if missing the 2 sectors there in, now to take advantage

[falkor]

iggiv, the stats never changed between 35-70K

winkel, you've come into this discussion a bit late to understand how -107 units = +1 million!

I only have to add 1 rule to the simulator to make each of you millionaires! If we wanted to, we could simply play this system based only on the first DS closing... though I won't stop there because in certain situations we can demand even more money with the 4th DS!

[Kattila]

PIE   Group   Numbers   
Pie 4    1   32,15,19,4,21,2
Pie 6   2   25,17,34,6,27,13
Pie 8   3   36,11,30,8,23,10
Pie 5   4   5,24,16,33,1,20
Pie 9   5   14,31,9,22,18,29
Pie 7   6   7,28,12,35,3,26


Consider  Global pies from Kimo Li,   now we have  6 Dstreets  but  Wheel based,  this will work much better than the table based, but the problem is
when we have to bet on 18 numbers ( 3 groups) or when  bet 24 numbers
( 4 groups) because no time to place the bets and the progression  for straight up can go v. high , so  there is a possibility to put the straight ups
into splits , streets, corners groups but this is a huge work to  make all
possible combination :
Wheel based  Ds:

Two groups combinations,

Ds1+ds2,  ds1 + ds3,  ds1 + ds4,  ds1 + ds5,  ds1 + ds6
Ds2 + ds3,  ds2 + ds4,  ds2 +  ds5,  ds2 + ds6
Ds3 + ds4, ds3 + ds5,  ds3 + ds 6
Ds4 + ds 5,  ds4 + ds6
Ds5 + ds 6

3 groups combinations :

Ds1 + ds2 + ds3,  ds1 + ds2 + ds4,  ds1 + ds2 + ds5,  ds1 + ds2 + ds 6
Ds1 + ds3 + ds4,  ds1 + ds3 + ds5,  ds1 + ds3 + ds6
Ds1 + ds4 + ds5,  ds1 + ds4 + ds6
Ds1 +ds 5 + ds 6

Ds2 + ds3 + ds4,  ds2 + ds3 + ds5,  ds2 + ds3 + ds6
And bla…bla…..


Then the 4 groups combinations …uuuhhhh…..then put them all in the better  way(splits, streets, corners, straight…) to  place less chips…..

[Kattila]

Here  some example Wheel based Vs Table based  double streets( (Other bet selection, not warrior s ),   seems wheel based works better , but  in long run for sure no big difference.  See excel file , on first page Wheel based  Ds, on second page  Table based Ds. (I am a bit off-topic here ,    I m out now..…)