P.A :PREACHING about HG!

[Steve]

They are there.  You have to look hard.

I can see the hints that have significance. The problem is what's being said is not accurate. Perhaps I'm just not understanding them.

[Chrisbis]

@ Steve

I don't think its about that sort of horse race......its more subtle than that.

Let me give you an example.

Say you are in a group of ppl, who are betting on the colour of the next car to turn the bend in the road.
The corner (bend) is blind, so you don't know what is coming till last moment. No cars can be seen, until you have placed your bet.
Bet made, and 'no more bets' is called.
(BTW...you don't have to make a bet every time)
The next car is on its way, and out of the 36 colours of cars that you can bet on, a car will turn the bend.

Which colour would you bet on ....and why?

My research, indicates that the most popular colour of car is Silver in the country today.
and that a Silver car accounts for one in every 10th to 19th occurrence on the road. (Average grouping)
And a Silver car is often seen in clusters of two's, three's and four's.

Do you bet initially or wait?
Do you wait till 10 coloured cars have past and then start betting?
If you start betting after 10th car showing, and lose, do you progress?
Or, do you wait until 18 cars have been seen, and if no show of Silver, begin betting then?

So, the game is :-
Research
Wait for opportunities
Virtual bet if your bet has a trigger
Trigger bet if you see it
Bet....but don't always bet every spin
R w/l
Avoid variance

(all of which are mentioned in detail in this topic......just read it well folks)
Marty betting, will only get you deeper into a hole, as you know well.

[Steve]

(BTW...you don't have to make a bet every time)

It wouldnt matter if I avoided betting, because the odds are always the same. Unless there was a finite amount of cars, and I knew what had previously passed, and that it wouldnt pass again (like card counting).

And a Silver car is often seen in clusters of two's, three's and four's.

If this were true, and the past cars indicated a cluster was due, I'd bet on the cluster. But roulette doesn't have predictable clusters that i'm aware of. Sure you can get 3 x green zero in a very short space of time. But no matter what cluster you get, the chance of 0 spinning next, or in the next 37 spins, doesnt change. I've tested this principle exhaustively. Trends are in our heads. The only real trends are a result of cause and effect, like bias (from wheel defects) although there is such thing as short term bias. I explain some of how to track it on my website.

Or, do you wait until 18 cars have been seen, and if no show of Silver, begin betting then?

If what you said about clusters was true, then I would wait. But I've never found any cluster to correlate to future outcomes, except in rare circumstances like bias.

So, the game is :-
Research
Wait
Virtual bet
Trigger bet
Bet
Ratio
Variance avoidance.

Ok so what you are saying comes down to CLUSTERS AND TRENDS. A while back I had a program written that checked for clusters and trends to see if they correlated to future spins. The outcome, no cluster or trend occurred, except only slight indicators that were likely bias (exhibited on some wheels only). It ran billions of calculations each day and ran for weeks but found nothing. In the end I could see there were fractals generated, but not in a way that could be of any use.

[P.A]

Gentlemen,
Thanks for your reply.

All my preaching indisputable by the math boys,
and  instead of against, I flow with the math.

We bet ONLY one bet selection.

The dues?
Everything has a LIMIT.

U will see 1Black, and 20red, but u NEVER see 10black, and 200RED!!!.

u never see 100black/100spins, though math possible, but in reality, why it not happen, because the law of large group.

We cannot use small sample, law of next spin sample,

for deciding law for LARGE GROUP.

Just like u see a Ferrari, and 9 other make, of  cars pass u on the street, u cannot say 10% of the country cars are FERRARI!!!

for the insitu, its 10%...but,
as a large group, Ferrari may only less than 0.1%.

The worst ever, [published], record is still 69red/200spins.

Though, probability wise, there is possibility 0red/200black.

That never ever happen, and will never happen.
That because it is for NEXT spins, BUT as a large group of spins,
that another law...Law of GROUP limit!

The law for next spins, cant be applied for law for next 100spins!
as a group.

Next spin=50%..true
Large GROUP spins=50%..wrong!
Large GROUP spins =+-50%,Variation..true!
Thats why we have rtm, ecart,limit, etc

Just because, a 50%, next spin, doesnt mean, there will also absolute  500000red, in next million spins, or else the casino broke....for I could easily make money FLATBET.

[see the 50wins/100spins riddle]...hehehe

There will less, and more, than
500000red, in every 1million spins.

There will be up and down wave, but there limit for how high or how low a wave to go....and that make CASINO's boss smirking and giggling, all the way home after laughing all the way to bank!!!

This is a complexity of Variance, that people still unwilling to do research, and understand.


This DUE or not due, should be "LOOK", from the REAL record.
If u do some research, when u look as LARGE SAMPLE, they will never a HUGE discrepancy, maybe they will be some, say 40%..
or worst the famous 20/80?



69/200=34.5%.
and since it by itself a record, and not broken yet, except, by RNG, then we could safely say, 30%, will be a very serious standard for a...DUES???

[P.A]

Ladies and Gentlemen,
The Variance or rather Variance avoidance ,
become more exciting, and more yawning...sigh..

Ok.

Look a any long real record data, of hamburg casino.

Look at the EC, for example, look at the RED only.

U will see, RED and Black , at the end of the record data, always has almost equal sum, of math expectation., albeit the ZERO.

If u look at the RED, spins by spins, u will see that, RED will sometime,DOMINATE, HIT more aggressive than black, and then suddenly, BLACK DOMINATE, and red only hit for a few time, but Black hit more ...This is called EXTREME variance.

This EXTREME variance will not last very long...
U will never see , say, only 20RED, in 100spins...never!.

and see for your self, u will surprised that in every 200 to 300spins, this will always happen.


And what u gonna do when this VARIANCE happen???


If u couldnot understand what I mean, then below ,
an oversimplified chart will make u UNDERSTAND...

RED only, after long no-progression testing.

math,expectation.
variance......
math,expectation.
math,expectation.
math,expectation
variance......
math,expectation.
math,expectation.
math,expectation.
variance......
math,expectation
math,expectation.
variance......
math,expectation.
math,expectation.
math,expectation
variance......
math,expectation.
variance......
math,expectation.
math,expectation

[P.A]

So, the game is :-
Research
Wait for opportunities
Virtual bet if your bet has a trigger
Trigger bet if you see it
Bet....but don't always bet every spin
R w/l
Avoid variance

(all of which are mentioned in detail in this topic......just read it well folks)
Marty betting, will only get you deeper into a hole, as you know well.

I will bet like this..
I go into the casino,
try to bet EC.

the chance of EC, 
50/50 albeit zero,
that the math boys say.

and 50/50 albeit zero, is indisputable,
variance , also indisputable,
Law of large group , also indisputable..
Law of limit, err..indisputable

so everything in-place and indisputable,
for LONG term spins.

Then I wait , and wait, and wait..
till abnormal...
ahh! abnormal happen,
and I bet it will be normal,
accordingly to the math boys, they must!!!

and indisputable,

by any expert and math boys,

the 'math expectation' spins,
or normal 50%, albeit zero,

with a mild progression...
and variance avoidance,
and  cut loss...at hand...

==================
interesting?

hard to understand, easy to implemented.


The members who understand , will say nothing.

THE ONE THAT, JUST UNDERSTAND now, WILL
...'aha, eureka, or hahaha"

The cant, will still banging the table...
and pulling hair....

[atlantis]

Some excellent key points and examples from PA today.

What I like about this and what you will like is he's telling you how to create YOUR OWN PERSONAL grail.
You can use these principles with different "stable bets".

It means that if several people sit down to play on same table and even began at the same time it entirely possible that no two players will play alike at the same time - due to their strategy selection; progression or individual personal thresholds used.
(unless they pre-arranged to play exactly alike beforehand)

There is NO WAY Casino can know that you are operating such a method....but then nor could they probably care less as Mr J said.
You can play it differently each time.

Some may never play this method - and even when they know - it will not be for them. They will not use it to their advantage and they will revert back to the older, familiar techniques.

Others will run with it, persevere and make it their own regular profit machine.

In any case - I do not think it advisable or advantageous to wise up CASINO by handing such a method to them on a plate, Ken.
Still, they probably aware of such methods being used against them and do not care a jot.

That because there are plenty of GAMBLERS out there who LOSE!
Gamblers who are steeped in the myths and superstitions of roulette who play for luck. I say if you're going to play then find the best method to PLAY TO WIN. Try and take the gamble out of it as much as possible. As someone said:
"Control the losses and then the wins will take care of themselves."

Our forum owner and chief, Steve, has HIS own strategies that use another principle. That is another way. Still the casino doors open and raking in dosh.

@doola: Right - let those who want please try and discover for yourselves. Earn it and deserve it. It is there for the taking and FREE.



A.

[Turner]

Adding to Atlantis....on what Steve said..
Thats how you disagree in a post. Not pointless disruption with no substance.
You put your point across and try and refute it in a civilised manner
No one is offended or the post disrupted.

[P.A]

Ladies, and Gentlemen,
The Variance issue, is complex, hard to understand but easy to implemented.


===================
Variance avoidance could be use to 'beat' the math.

In the simple, oversimplified example, let me show u how a avoidance could be use to 'beat' math of roulette.



Say, in 100spins, there will be ONLY 10 wins.
thus, By counting the losses, we could see the CHANCES of hit becomes higher...
=======================

oversimplified example
10win/100spin=10% hit
or 10w/90 loss
or 90 loss/10wins ratio.

then , with every loss,
that without win,
the hit% becomes higher.

1loss, then 10wins in next 99spins
2loss, then 10wins in next 98spins
3loss, then 10wins in next 97 spins
4loss, then 10wins in next 96 spins
5loss, then 10wins in next  95spins

50loss, then 10wins in next 50 spins=20%

and now u can see the % change, in this oversimplified example.
==================

Another simple , that already stale since first casino open shop, is VIRTUAL bet your system, till LOSS, and then bet for real, hoping the variance wont hit back to back!


for example.

LABBY start with one unit.
1=L=-1
11=L=-2
112=L=-3, AND SO ON

Labby will win, when 33% plus ONE more win.
But then again, many still lose when they apply LABBY!

Then , we wait for losses , and go in for real.
U may test yourself.

ALL play virtual!

1]LABBY, bet EC, bet start with ONE unit,

2]reset at first u win.

3]wait for UNBEARABLE losses,
[say around 60unit losses.
u may adjust the cut loss, parameter].

4]After first VIRTUAL LOSS, cut loss,

5]PLAY real....win 1, reset.

This test, u will see, that losses , or huge losses come when VARIANCE hit, and U will see, that less than 33%, +1, will cause huge losses.

but losses, or variance, SELDOM, come back to back...BUT they MAY happen, and u lose your BR, and previous winning!
=================

Martingale.

Bet EC , virtual, or wait, for 10streaks LOSS.
AFTER 10 streaks loss, wait for one win, as trigger, and bet that 10 streaks wont come back to back.

1]Wait, for 10streaks losses=alert.
2]Trigger=first win
3]bet 10 losses wont hit again.
but if hit back to back, then u lose BR+previous winning!heheheee

================

just for testing and educational purpose only.
to understand variance avoidance!

[Turner]

PA...
So basically you are saying when SD is high...approaching 3.0 you bet for normal math expectation. This way you catch the next set hovering or as expected...the next set having a lower SD than the last.

[P.A]

If u guy, had make the line chart out of ,
==============
EC bet,

bet, say RED,

1unit, no progression...

Then u will see WAVES of spike up and spike down,
some gentle, some tsunami like, ripple...
[eventually to rtm, ecart of whatever high, and then will ...around -2.7%.]

Those highest and lowest, ...waves...
a trigger!
for betting, ...
somehow,
the wave must go up, and must go down!
Because whatever VARIANCE, with WHATEVER ecart high, and then Viola! RTM ,and -2.7%...according to math boys, and logic argument...must happen!

[P.A]

PA...
So basically you are saying when SD is high...approaching 3.0 you bet for normal math expectation. This way you catch the next set hovering or as expected...the next set having a lower SD than the last.

[Gulp! The respected Turner unexpectedly put up a question...must be very careful.. hehehe]

errr... I mean, after a very-very high SD,

WE expect the next long spins,

will behave as 'normal', hopefully...
as the math boys say, the past,
do not represent the future..

and we should not very afraid that it will  happen again...
bet with mild progression...
but with variance avoidance strategy at hand...and cut loss too.
Thanks...

[Turner]

PA....could be waiting a long time for a very high SD

[Drazen]

P. A is right in general here, although I don't like his act here in full.

In roulette, past spins don't cause future ones, but they indicate what will happen.

If you want to help or teach, then show some harder evidence and support...

Using strong deviations isn't that simple and easy. Meaning that even if you find some strong deviation (and I wonder how exactly you would suggest to obtain that in a real casino environment, for enough of triggers) isn't enough to just slap over any progression and you will win every time without a doubt... I wont even mention marty, but not with labby either.. Too bad it isn't that simple 

Cheers

Drazen

[Turner]

Hi Drazen...long time no see
Heres a guy I personally learned a lot from
A kinda good lookin version of Bayes....lol