Can we please stop looking for the HG? (and focus on Moneymanagement?)

[Bettingking]

Using supposed wheel bias techniques to find flaws in a wheel.....that what i find not really studying the game of roulette at all. Revolutions and amount of spin placed on the ball.....this analysis i dont see as consistant at all....how do you know every spin is going to be the same with high degree of acuracy.

[Steve]

The roulette wheel isn't roulette?

And exactly what data supports your assumptions? please be detailed.

Ps, if you "assume" something you'll almost always be wrong.

[Bettingking]

Yes I understand. But if there was wheel bias where you are tracking many spins then dont you think this would all be noticed and tracked in the actual casino with them making the adjustment which im sure they would have regular maintenance. Let me know if im on the wrong track.

[Turner]

You are a clever bloke Steve, and I have no doubt that Roulette computers work.

What do you think of what Caleb Johnson says of how much he wins constantly by exploiting biased wheels.

Man...the world has changed since Russel Barnhardt and his "How to beat the wheel"
Am I missing something? You track 1000's of spins on a particular table for days/weeks to look for numbers that are hitting above average due to not being random because of a wonky wheel, or a bit of fluff in a fret?

Is this real? Do Casinos not check the fitness of their wheels? Do they not swap wheels around? Are wheels not better than in Barnhardts days? (circa 1992)

Whats your opinion?

[nottophammer]

Yes they do Turner
In the summer went to pick the boys up at Luton, so popped in grosvenor at midday and on the wheel is the spirt level, shows they look after their wheels, so wheel watching load of old bollox, a thing of the past

[DoctorSudoku]

Are you willing to share your moneymoneymanegement secret? I'd say that secret may be much more worth than any system/strategy posted on the forum so far? 

Alrelax is one of the most prolific posters over at betselection.cc. He is a veteran baccarat player who has some idiosyncratic ideas on money management that you might find interesting (especially, in relation to the EC bets in roulette) -- here are two relevant threads for you to peruse:

link:://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/1-3-2-6-yes-it-is-not-new-but-most-successful-m-m-for-me/

link:://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/13-13-13-summation/

[Steve]

You are a clever bloke Steve, and I have no doubt that Roulette computers work.

What do you think of what Caleb Johnson says of how much he wins constantly by exploiting biased wheels.

Man...the world has changed since Russel Barnhardt and his "How to beat the wheel"
Am I missing something? You track 1000's of spins on a particular table for days/weeks to look for numbers that are hitting above average due to not being random because of a wonky wheel, or a bit of fluff in a fret?

Is this real? Do Casinos not check the fitness of their wheels? Do they not swap wheels around? Are wheels not better than in Barnhardts days? (circa 1992)

Whats your opinion?

Ive never seen him specify an amount he wins playing biased wheels. Caleb has a very good knowledge of wheel manufacturing, defects, design flaws etc. See link:s://:.roulettephysics.com/roulette-wheel-bias/ for the basics of wheel bias analysis. I havent seen Caleb's book so dont know how much more in depth it is.

Every wheel has some bias. Casinos detect bias with limited software and approaches. They easily detect obvious anomalies like an obvious biased number. But many biased numbers occur only in specific circumstances, and modern bias analysis software doesnt account for these circumstances. This makes it more viable to detect and expoit bias before the casino even knows about it. Because he player can do things the casinos software doesnt.

Its made easier by watching and listening for signs of bias. Some of this is explained on my site.

But even with visual bias confirmation, bias play is a very tough grind. You could spend a week to scout 50 wheels and perhaps 5 have potential with visual confirmation. Next you need enough data. And that could be another week for 1 wheel and 1 player. With team play you could cover all 5 wheels in less time but that means profits are split in 5.

You might be left with one reasonable wheel with a measely 3% edge. With $100 units and play for 24hrs straight, thats probably about $1500 profit. For all that time, and team resources, its just not viable.

And to make it worse, even if you succeed, the casino staff might be onto you very early, then all your time is wasted and you wont even get your $1500 per day. Even if you got it, you cant play day after day without being detected.

Back 30 years ago it was very different. Many casino staff didnt have much idea about wheel bias. To them a bias player would look like someone playing lucky numbers. Plus there were far more biased wheels around. So turning $2000 into $1m in a year was possible. But doung that now wpuld take so much more work that it would be more viable to get a 9-5 job.

In contrast, a computer player can get a 30-50% edge on virtually any wheel they find, within an hour. Even if you didnt like the idea of computers, vb or dealer signature will do better than bias analysis. More wheels would be suitable, the edge would be higher, and its far quicker.

Overall, bias is a waste of time unless you are surrounded by many casinos with old technology and very lazy staff. Even then there are far more viable options.

[Steve]

Also my software has lots of spins and detailed data about wheels added daily by players. This makes bias detection very easy. We do still find biased wheels. But the edge is still crap compared to other methods. It doesnt make sense to choose a much more time consuming method that has a lower edge and more limitations.

[Turner]

Cheers Steve. Its as I thought

[Scarface]

I thinking keeping the wager percentage the same throughout the session is a very safe bet.  It depends on your system.  I assume most people's average bet is between 1-5% of bankroll.  If your bankroll is $1000 and you're betting 5%, then that would be $50 per bet.  If your bankroll increases to $1200, then wager would be $60.  If it decreased to $800, then wager would be $40.

Basically, stay at a constant percentage of bankroll.  Variance is gonna be in your favor or against you.  If variance is on your side, wagers will increase and wins will be exponential.  If variance is against you, then wagers become lower and lower and will protect you against huge losses.

Wins will be big, but losses will be limited

[atlantis]

Hi Scarface,
This type of percentage system I have known to be successfully employed in horseracing betting also.
Thanks,
A.

[Scarface]

Just look at the worse case scenerio your system can have in a session.  By a applying the "constant percentage" money management, determine how much you can lose.

But also look at the best case scenerio you can have in a session and see what the wins would look like.  The wins will offset the loses from the worse case.

We cannot control variance, but we can control our wagers.  I think money management is the most important aspect of this game

[ignatus]

I think money management is the most important aspect of this game

agreed. Thank you Scarface

[atlantis]

Here is one of the many sites advocating this plan:

link:://:.raceadvisor.co.uk/the-5-pro-cumulative-staking-plan-%E2%80%93-ignoring-this-will-cost-you/

A.

[DoctorSudoku]

Here is one of the many sites advocating this plan:

link:://:.raceadvisor.co.uk/the-5-pro-cumulative-staking-plan-%E2%80%93-ignoring-this-will-cost-you/

A.

Thanks for the link to that great article.

The following quote from that article should be etched in gold:

"Firstly, without any shadow of a doubt you should never use a staking plan that recommends increased stakes AFTER losses! This method of betting really is the quickest way to losing an entire bank and heading to the poorhouse. When losing runs happen, they can very often manifest themselves in to strings. Strings of losses when using any type of ‘chase your losses’ staking plan will lead to disaster.

What you actually require to remain in the game, long term whilst maximising profits and minimising losses is a staking plan that correlates to the size of your betting bank. One that increases as you win and decreases should you lose."