Hit and Run vs Mathematical Probability

[Skakus]

A hit and run strategy is suggestive of a game with a set goal, whether that be 1 unit or 100 units.

If you play to earn a preset profit and then stop, you are playing a hit and run strategy.

There is absolutely no benefit in not continuing the current session even after attaining your goal.

You could just rule off the previous outcomes, restart the game and reset the goal.

You could do this 100 times with the same stream of numbers and have 100 hit and run sessions all in a row without ever leaving the table.

Hit and run is an illusion, to be sure.

[iggiv]

It is not an illusion, it is a very logical thing. and it is proved by practice. Is it not true that
70% of people are ahead at some moment, but then lose it? it is not true that most pro gamblers have a rule "leave when you are ahead". Is it not true that roulette is basically
unbeatable game on a long run? Is it not true that odds are against u?

what happens when you beat the roulette on short run -- the odds are still not that bad, you are NOT ON A LONG RUN. But longer you play -- odds against you grow up quickly. Well, maybe my expression is wrong and akward, but you got the idea. The shorter is your run -- the fewer odds you are facing.


and Skakus, did you really run many roulette tests? I doubt it somehow. it is so obvious, that on average you lose more when you play longer and the breaks are shorter. and vise versa.


i will give u a simple example. say u bet 2 dozens. the big chance is you will win. but
when u play like this second time, u have less chances already, third time even less...and so on.

whatever is your system losing or winning, the average results are gonna be better with
hit-n-run

[MrJ]

"whatever is your system losing or winning, the average results are gonna be better with
hit-n-run" >>> This is a subject, I am 50/50 on. I see both sides. Lets say, you should leave shortly after making a few bucks, hit-n-run.

When is it OKAY to play again? The next day (24 hours)? What about 18 hours later, is that okay?

What about 15 hours later? WHEN is it okay to use the hit-n-run tactic again?

I also see the other side of the coin. If a method is GOOD, it should not matter how long you sit there and play.

Ken

[albalaha]

Dear Ken,
       Hit-and-run can never be good to be played in long run. For example, I suggest a game where you bet upon 10 streets and leave 2 streets randomly. Now, only if 0 or any number from those two left lines wins, you lose your bets. Otherwise, you have more than 80% chances to win those 2 units.
             Such tricks can be tried for hit-n-run but in long run you should lose more by it than you can earn.

[Skakus]

"whatever is your system losing or winning, the average results are gonna be better with
hit-n-run" >>> This is a subject, I am 50/50 on. I see both sides. Lets say, you should leave shortly after making a few bucks, hit-n-run.

When is it OKAY to play again? The next day (24 hours)? What about 18 hours later, is that okay?

What about 15 hours later? WHEN is it okay to use the hit-n-run tactic again?...
Ken

The point I was making is it should be ok to play straight away. All you need to do is at the end of each game (whatever that is) act as though you just arrived at the table and start a new game.

Think about this. You have six people playing exactly the same game; player 1 wins after 20 spins then walks away (hit and run). Player 2 just happens to arrive as player 1 is leaving. Player 2 wins after 20 spins and walks away (hit and run). Player 3 just happens to arrive as player 2 is leaving. Player 3 wins after 20 spins and walks away (hit and run). Player 4 just happens to arrive as player 3 is leaving. Player 4 wins after 20 spins and walks away (hit and run). Player 5 just happens to arrive as player 4 is leaving. Player 5 wins after 20 spins and walks away (hit and run). Player 6 remained at the table for the whole 100 spins and restarted his game after each 20 spin portion.

All 5 hit and run players each won in 20 spins, but player 6 won 5 times on the trot playing exactly the same game as the first 5 players.

Leaving the table/casino then coming back whenever to start a new series of bets is the same as staying at the table and starting a new series of bets.

[iggiv]

i think this can be proved with statitistics. but it is rather complicated. we all heard fairy tales of holy grails, but they are just fairtytales, no more than this. in reality there is no such univesal method as winning on a long run. Spin after spin after spin. for millions of spins. if u have such a method,
u can be world wide sensation and as well known as president Obama or whatever.

on the other side there are some people winning in roulette. as much as i know all of them use hit-n-run tactics.

as for Ken's question "how much is long" and "how much is short" i guess there is no universal answer. Maybe there are some methods which can be run for as much as 100 spins and wait as little as 20. i don't know about them. But there are more methods like "play for 10 or 20 spins and  wait for 500 or 1000 spins", slow grinding kind of stuff, i guess. These all should be decided by tests and life experience.

all this is just my opinion, i may be wrong as well.

[Bazeegar]

The point I was making is it should be ok to play straight away. All you need to do is at the end of each game (whatever that is) act as though you just arrived at the table and start a new game.

Think about this. You have six people playing exactly the same game; player 1 wins after 20 spins then walks away (hit and run). Player 2 just happens to arrive as player 1 is leaving. Player 2 wins after 20 spins and walks away (hit and run). Player 3 just happens to arrive as player 2 is leaving. Player 3 wins after 20 spins and walks away (hit and run). Player 4 just happens to arrive as player 3 is leaving. Player 4 wins after 20 spins and walks away (hit and run). Player 5 just happens to arrive as player 4 is leaving. Player 5 wins after 20 spins and walks away (hit and run). Player 6 remained at the table for the whole 100 spins and restarted his game after each 20 spin portion.

All 5 hit and run players each won in 20 spins, but player 6 won 5 times on the trot playing exactly the same game as the first 5 players.

Leaving the table/casino then coming back whenever to start a new series of bets is the same as staying at the table and starting a new series of bets.

Nicely put. I agree.

[ScoobyDoo]

Well Guys,

I guess I have to add my 2-cents worth. I have been reading all of these different theories but it seems as if the point has been missed.

Since imaginary examples have been used, I will do the same. Imagine that there is a wheel similar to a roulette wheel but it has 100 pockets. In each pocket there is a white ball and in the "Zero" pocket there is a yellow ball.  If you remove a ball, it is automatically replaced immediately.

Now, as the wheel spins slowly, you place a blindfold over your eyes and one-by-one you start removing the balls and place them in a bowl. Each white ball represents a Win and the Yellow Ball represents a series loss. So in this case the STRIKE RATE is 99/1. Lets also say that the yellow  ball is worth 7-times more than one white ball but since the strike-rate is 99/1, a loss will not eat up all of your profit.

The idea is to draw as many white balls as you can without drawing the yellow ball. So lets say we want to win 25 units and then stop each time we play. The yellow ball can be the first ball or any other ball but by hit-and-run play, eventually you will have won more than you have lost even if you chose the yellow ball.

The idea of calculating the strike rate is so crucial to any system of play but is over-looked by most players because it takes a lot of testing to determine what it is exactly for each system.  I don't see how anyone can expect to have a winning method without doing it religiously.

Best Regards,
Scooby Doo    

[iggiv]

Bazeer and Skakus.

Enough of blah-blah-blah, I created a real life example for u. you kinda live in the world of fiction roulette, I think (no offence meant).  

here is real life example. I took german spins and bet the last dozen 2 ways: hit- and- run, and your way. How you can bet last dozen as "a player which just came to the game"? the same way.
if you have another idea, how you can bet the last dozen, please tell me.

maybe this example will prove who is right and who is wrong.

[Skakus]

Hi iggiv.

I don't know how to compare your 2 charts - they are far too different in spin length.

If you post the 70+ spins from your second chart I will try and give an example of what I mean by continuous play = hit and run.

[iggiv]

i won't do it sorry. consider yourself right. All u have to do is to behave like one that just came to the table and u gonna win forever. Gotcha. u r right. my mistake. And all those people which say "greediness kills you in casino", they are also wrong. Yes, sure, u pretend that u just came to play and u gonna win as much as u want

Basically from what u r saying the conclusion is simple. Go eat, go to a washroom, go to sleep, come back, play till u r tired, go to take your rest again, come back, and in a few days u gonna easily empty the casino, because u r capable to win non-stop. so easy done. congratulations.
u must be a rich guy by now.

[Skakus]

Sorry iggiv,

I believe you have misunderstood my point.

You see the same senario equally applies for losing.



Think about this.

You have six people playing exactly the same game; player 1 loses after 20 spins then walks away (hit and run). Player 2 just happens to arrive as player 1 is leaving. Player 2 loses after 20 spins and walks away (hit and run). Player 3 just happens to arrive as player 2 is leaving. Player 3 loses after 20 spins and walks away (hit and run). Player 4 just happens to arrive as player 3 is leaving. Player 4 loses after 20 spins and walks away (hit and run). Player 5 just happens to arrive as player 4 is leaving. Player 5 loses after 20 spins and walks away (hit and run). Player 6 remained at the table for the whole 100 spins and restarted his game after each 20 spin portion.

All 5 hit and run players each lost in 20 spins, but player 6 lost 5 times on the trot playing exactly the same game as the first 5 players.

Leaving the table/casino then coming back whenever to start a new series of bets is the same as staying at the table and starting a new series of bets.

[Bazeegar]

Bazeer and Skakus.

Enough of blah-blah-blah, I created a real life example for u. you kinda live in the world of fiction

I better not comment.

[iggiv]

You don't understand the very nature of roulette. period. you just have some weird artificial concept in your mind, which is not working in real life. Roulette (randomness) is balancing itself. Whatever wins will lose soon. Well, it may work for some period of time of course, but as exception, not as a rule. As a rule it is gonna lose soon. That's why player which is left and come back has more chances to win again than a player which is stubborn at sit hours at the table. And i will tell u something more. Roulette randomness is such, that balancing is more working for killing the winning on a long run than helping to recover losses. If u run tests and analyze this  u will just pay attention. Going down with more and more spins is A TYPICAL scenario for mechanical systems. Going up and up and up and up or going down then recover and going down then again recover to the same level is possible but less typical for roulette behaviour. Casinos know this and use this advantage very well.
that's why they almost always in profit.

I showed you a small example. Hit and run may not work, and you are right about it, it may lose as well. But it has much more chances to win than sitting at the table. What happened at 70 spins -- was TYPICAL. what happened at hit-run, was one of the possible scenarios. of course it could be all 3 losing sessions, it could be 2 winning and 1 losing session, could be 2 losing and 1 winning. Nothing is guaranteed about winning at hit-run. But what is almost guaranteed is LOSING on longer runs. And typically if hit-run if it doesn't win, it still will lose much less than long sessions. Say 5 days you sit everyday at the table for 100 spins (one scenario) and you hit and run for 5 days (playing a few spins, then waiting for a 200 or 300 or even 500 or 1000 spins). Typically hit-run will much more successful. at least if it doesn't win -- it will lose less. And sitting for 100 spins for 5 days will almost certainly be a disaster.
of course you can be lucky, but it won't be TYPICAL.

i am sure you did not run many tests. you did not analyze them. if you did, you wouldn't say that. you probably found some couple of flukes, and decided that this is gonna be a law. you could not be more wrong than this.

and whatever you invented about player 1, player 2, player3, it is just your idea but not a reflection of reality. Randomness is not like this.

[iggiv]

I better not comment.

it was not intended as a personal assault, rather as my evaluation of your understanding the roulette nature. Sorry if i sounded rude.