Let s see if some members can help the others to get out of the dark

[RouletteExplorer]

""""""""We would/should lose only 30% of the time hence as Iggiv says a good stop/loss point prevents further losses."""""""

Yes it prevents further losses IN THE SAME DAY.
But in the next visits as the total number of played spins are suming up the loss will be exactly the same as if we would play continiously.

So as I have posted above hit and run just makes the br last longer NOT in the number of played spins   but in the TIME.

"""Walk out and come back another day when conditions (luck for want of a better word) are/is stronger"""

This is the biggest gambling fallacy ever !
There is no such thing as luck in a mathematical game...there is only good and bad fluxuations that are affecting our play. So no matter how much good or how much bad the fluxuations are , we are always under the mathematical disadvantage of -2.7.

"""""With all of this in mind, to dismiss Hit and Run is simply non-sensical, maths or no maths, but not only that- It makes exceptionally bad advice to a noobie to say to them "walk into a casino with your BR and play continuously- It makes no difference!""""""

It would be a very possitive thing if all newbies knew this.
But as you can see its not only the newbies that don't know it....but also some old and experienced members.

What you ppl fail to understand is that the LONG RUN isn t the continous play...but its the total spins played....

1000 spins continious or 100 spins X10 visit games is exactly the same

[RouletteExplorer]

Good.
The more ppl that  understand this gambling fallacy , the better systems we are gonna make.

[Skakus]

 
I already made the best system.

Check out the Chompskyhonk.

[woods101]

I think the problem of understanding is related to the term hit and run itself.
Nearly every system relies on some event either happening, or not happening in order to return a profit.
It is in your interest to know what event this is and how long a period it may take for this event to either happen or not happen and therefore turn a profit.
If you have a system that employs a BR large enough to get you through the longest period of your profitable event(s) either happening or not happening then congratulations. You must be a very rich person as you have the holy G, which you can play at anytime, perpetually in which case I bow down at your feet.
If you have a system that means you stop when you have either lost enough, or won enough and then walk away, then I hate to disapoint you, but you're playing a form of hit and run.
Or....do you play for your stop/loss goal and lose. Play for another stop/loss point and lose again, get annoyed your continuous form of play is not working so well today and then reach for the credit card? (be honest now).
As far as I'm concerned continuous method of play is more of a fallacy than that of the 'gamblers' as it is the fallacy of the holy grail - to be able to play continuously without hitting conditions that will kill your entire BR.
And remember the gamblers fallacy is actually a truth- if you wait long enough for an event to happen, it eventually will happen but normally other factors come into play that restrict you capitalising on it such as time limits (can you wait days, weeks or even years?), BR (do you have enough BR- thousands or millions?) and table limits as well as being able to hold your bladder, survive starvation etc. Mathematically this is true.

Can we be sure any system will survive perpetual continuous play?
Mathematically there is no such thing.

God bless maths.

[Proofreaders2000]

I am a believer in hit-and-run.  We can't control the wheel or where the ball will land, but we can control the amount of bankroll we bring to the table, we can control the time we spend on a session and control the type of progression.  The challenge is to begin betting when the numbers favor us and leave when that changes.

[woods101]

P.s. Its only dark because the curtains are closed. Oh..and long live the chompskyhonk.

[woods101]

Proof sees the light! And remember kids, seeing is believing!

[RouletteExplorer]

""""""I think the problem of understanding is related to the term hit and run itself.
Nearly every system relies on some event either happening, or not happening in order to return a profit.
It is in your interest to know what event this is and how long a period it may take for this event to either happen or not happen and therefore turn a profit.
If you have a system that employs a BR large enough to get you through the longest period of your profitable event(s) either happening or not happening then congratulations. You must be a very rich person as you have the holy G, which you can play at anytime, perpetually in which case I bow down at your feet.
If you have a system that means you stop when you have either lost enough, or won enough and then walk away, then I hate to disapoint you, but you're playing a form of hit and run.
Or....do you play for your stop/loss goal and lose. Play for another stop/loss point and lose again, get annoyed your continuous form of play is not working so well today and then reach for the credit card? (be honest now).
As far as I'm concerned continuous method of play is more of a fallacy than that of the 'gamblers' as it is the fallacy of the holy grail - to be able to play continuously without hitting conditions that will kill your entire BR.
And remember the gamblers fallacy is actually a truth- if you wait long enough for an event to happen, it eventually will happen but normally other factors come into play that restrict you capitalising on it such as time limits (can you wait days, weeks or even years?), BR (do you have enough BR- thousands or millions?) and table limits as well as being able to hold your bladder, survive starvation etc. Mathematically this is true.

Can we be sure any system will survive perpetual continuous play?
Mathematically there is no such thing.

God bless maths.""""""""


I am not playing Roulette right now because I am trying to engineer a nice system
I do not have a long run winning system and everybody know it because they all can see that I am searching for it (IF it can exist).

HIT and RUN can work ONLY if the system that you are playing can also win in the long run....
Continious play and hit and run have NO deference at all......Its matter od education for a person to understand it....
Unfortunately you wil always be in the dark....
But that s ok ... I did my try to help you. but guess what ! ppl that do not want to be helped they can t be helped.
Good luck with ur hit and run theory....and try to run as fast as you can ... LoL

[woods101]

Strange.

I provide some valid points regarding this discussion, illustrating my beliefs from many different real and hypothetical situations and no-one is prepared to discuss the specific points I have raised.

14,000+ hours riding a m/c in city traffic continuously 24hrs a day. One bad crash. Does this sound real/normal?

- sure this could be luck- the luck of about 1000 people all in one.

"...I favour repeaters and some times you will get repeater 'droughts' for up to 300-350 spins a time (a days worth of spins). "

...as I stated earlier on. I play systems that win more than they lose (so far) but with such systems, if I were to play those systems through one of these droughts then I would lose my entire BR. I wait till the drought passes and I then I win some more. If I were to play on losing my mini BR of 500 units at time, then going back for more sessions during one of these periods, I would have lost all my BR(s).

Believe me when I say to you I have played into a drought and lost all my BR.

But you would advise me to do this because I could lose my first game every night in a row for twelve nights and it would be the same.

The difference between the two takes?

If I play continuously then it is guaranteed that I will hit that losing streak as there is  more or less one every 1200/1500 spins if i play the same wheel.

If I play hit and run (on the same wheel) then I may never encounter losing the first game each night twelve nights in a row because -get this- I may be lucky! (Dirty word!)

And think about this before you respond -your gonna keep trying to beat a negative outcome game with mathematical systems which you know are flawed and then call me mad for bringing luck into it?

Think again.

I'd rather 'chance my luck' than play continuous 'suicide'.

Again I state -


"As far as I'm concerned continuous method of play is more of a fallacy than that of the 'gamblers' as it is the fallacy of the holy grail - to be able to play continuously without hitting conditions that will kill your entire BR.
And remember the gamblers fallacy is actually a truth- if you wait long enough for an event to happen, it eventually will happen but normally other factors come into play that restrict you capitalising on it such as time limits (can you wait days, weeks or even years?), BR (do you have enough BR- thousands or millions?) and table limits as well as being able to hold your bladder, survive starvation etc. Mathematically this is true.

Can we be sure any system will survive perpetual continuous play?
Mathematically there is no such thing."

I have provided a mathematical argument above as to why the 'gamblers' fallacy is more valid than one presented in this thread. Where are your comments (all of you) regarding the above statement?



Again all I hear is silence. Just to say I'm wrong and your right all day long isn't much of an argument is it?

How about addressing the above issues themselves before anything else.

Or....if you can't then maybe silence is the best action for all you naysayers to take once and for all.

Bravo. let's keep it that way.

Dark ages indeed. Oh yeh and remember the world is flat. Mankind will never fly and there is only one God. his name is Steve. He owns the forum.

[RouletteExplorer]

"""""""" if I were to play those systems through one of these droughts then I would lose my entire BR. I wait till the drought passes and I then I win some more. If I were to play on losing my mini BR of 500 units at time, then going back for more sessions during one of these periods, I would have lost all my BR(s). """""""""

This is the point that you will never understand !
You said you will wait till the drought passes .There is NOTHING to wait about!
When you will reach the spins(total played) that the -2,7 will kill you then having played in sessions(hit and run visits) or continious play makes NO DEFFERENCE at all ! Its the total spins played that counts and not the WHEN you will play them......

You are a person that explain his thought very very good and analitic...I really like you for that.
But my friend unfortunately your thought is very wrong.
It would be a very nice thing if what you say was correct...it would be a very nice weapon that we could have against Roulette and I can garanty that I would also use it for sure !
But its mathematically wrong....and Roulette is a mathematical game....luck or passing droughts doesn't exist.

Ok I will really not bother again to post in here....
You know my point of view of the hit and run . (although when i say MY POINT OF VIEW of this subject kind of makes to my own eyes look like an unintelligent because its not my point of view at all...its the point of view of the ultimate absolte Maths that can be changed....but because you can t understand it , that s why I am telling you that its my point of view)
And this point of view will not change until maths will change.

[woods101]

Fair enough RE.
I understand your point of view fully. I used to believe it myself not long ago.
I would like to think of your view point as wrong (as you do of mine) , but I can't - I just think of it as different, because we are discussing probability 'theory', not something called probability 'fact', and your opinion is as valid as mine.
In reality both can be proven to be true.
A believe held by some is that hit and run means that you are just losing more slowly. So far I'm winning but I believe if I played longer sessions, I certainly wouldn't be 'winning quicker', I would be losing.
We are all entitled to believe what we want. The last thing I will say though especially to anyone new to this, is that you will lose less and learn more about roulette through playing many sessions hit and run (and be happier for longer), than one long session, for as many hours as possible.

All the best RE and thanks for responding.

Woods

[iggiv]

Woods, u express things better than me as i said. sometimes i can see u saying things i am thinking about but somehow miss them in expression.

very good point: "waiting for an event to happen". Yes, u said it. the longer u play the same method, or even a few  methods, the more likely u ask for a trouble. the event is coming. total disaster for the method. it's there. when u play for long time u call for it to happen. what is less likely to happen at your first spin is much more likely to happen after 100 spins. as simple as that.

[Bayes]

Hi Woods,

We are all entitled to believe what we want.

True, but that is irrelevant to whether the belief is true or that I'm justified in believing it. I'm "entitled" to believe that I can jump off a cliff, flap my arms and fly like a bird, but no-one in their right mind would do such a thing.

Just because probability is called probability "theory"  doesn't mean that it's  speculative in the way that you normally use the word "theory" (which really means "hypothesis"). The results of probability theory can be demonstrated by anyone and proven to be true, it's not a matter of opinion.

Probability can even quantify "luck", which is just standard deviation.

There seem to be some differences in how people interpret Hit & Run, I think that's why there is so much disagreement. To me hit & run simply means keeping sessions short (in terms of the NUMBER of spins played in any session) in the belief that you will somehow avoid losing streaks. So if you played IDENTICAL systems but one was played hit & run and the other played "continuously", there would be a difference in results. Are we agreed on this?

Until we have a clear definition which we all agree on then it isn't really possible to show one way or the other that hit & run "works", and that's what I'm interested in doing. We can argue back and forth for eternity,  but surely there must be a way of proving whether it works or not using real data. Otherwise, it's just a battle of egos trying to "win" arguments, which isn't very satisfactory.

If you don't agree that there is no TRUTH of the matter one way or the other, I don't see that there's any point in continuing the discussion. This isn't an argument about the existence of God or any thing which can't be shown one way or the other, so can you think of an experiment the results of which would convince you that hit & run does (or doesn't ) work?

[Bayes]

As far as I'm concerned continuous method of play is more of a fallacy than that of the 'gamblers' as it is the fallacy of the holy grail - to be able to play continuously without hitting conditions that will kill your entire BR.

Woods, you deny that such a system can exist, but at the same time suggest there is a loophole - hit & run!

The fact is that in order to create a successful hit & run strategy you have to create a system which wins continuously. There is no difference, and to believe otherwise is an illusion. To play hit & run means that you are simply skipping spins, but if you know which spins to skip and when, then you have created a system which can be played "continuously". See what I mean?

[Lady K]

The fact is that in order to create a successful hit & run strategy you have to create a system which wins continuously. There is no difference, and to believe otherwise is an illusion. To play hit & run means that you are simply skipping spins, but if you know which spins to skip and when, then you have created a system which can be played "continuously". See what I mean?

Bayes, I couldn't agree more.   One should know their bets Strike-rate, it's LW Registry!