% Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains

[ego]

-

The permanence is like a beautiful flower who unfold it self ...

I wish every one read randomness using three present states, it is a very nice way to observe what is going on with the random flow.
I recon not every one is following this topic to be easy so i will try to explain some basic observations.

When you see one dozen to repeat it self like 11 or 111 or 22 or 222 or 33 or 333 you might wondering how it looks like using three present states, witch is pretty simple.
First you have to have a clear mind and understand the three formations witch create three different states - See above.

STATE 1 - If series of singels repeats like dozen's - witch is one state - one state to repeat like dozen's - with minimum two singels or more in a row - it will look like this:

RRRBBBRR{BRB}RRRR{BRB}RRR or BBBRRR{BRBRBR}BBBBB{RBRBRB}RRR{BRBR}BBRRR

STATE 2 - If series of series chop after each other - then have to have four in a row to get that state to repeat twice.

RRRBBBRRRRBBBB or RRRBBBRRRRBBBRRRRBBBBB

STATE 3 - If you get at Least two isolated singels in a row you have a double dozen.

RRRBRRRBRRRR or BBBBRBBBBRBBBBBRBBBBRBBBB

The three present states has the same probability and same random distribution as dozen 1X2.

There is one exception to our advantage - you place less bets on the layout then you would do playing dozen's.
Example if you would play against dozen to alternate with one show each you would have to place 4 units to cover does postions and try to win - but using even money bets with three present states you only have to place two to three single bets to cover the same positions - depending on strategy.

[thrasher]

The final solution.

I find a way to use skip and find a way to use cycles based upon the algorithm above.
The result are amazing with short testing using 300 trails sessions.

Next i will run 1000 placed bets and aim for 100 units net gain witch is the minimum bench mark.
I would not flat betting with result that show less as i recon some one would need at least 2.5 STD to survive common fluctuation in the long run.

Raw trending peaks & pure cycle peaks.

If we ride only the peaks we will end up with pure peaks of how each cycle perform.
Is the only solution or tweak i can think of at the moment.

Just like trading daily peaks on the stock market.
Witch would mean 8 hours or 300 trails session trading using roulette.

Ego,

do you still continue to work in this topic? It seemed very interesting. What was the skip you used between cycles?
Or maybe you stopped research because in the long run it was not working?

Best regards
Thrasher

[ego]

I find a solid optimal march using the three present states - i will try to explain it - if there is still is some one intressting in trending using three present states with the same probability as dozen play.L

LW-Registy 300 Trails from today's random org.

L
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
L
L
W

L
L
L

- - -

L
L
W
W
W
W
L
L
W
W
L
L
W
L
L
W
L
W
W
W
L
W
L
W
W
W
L
L
W
L
W
W
L
L
W
W
L
W
L
L
W
L
W
W
W
W
L
W
L
W

L
L
L

- - -

W
L
W
W
W
W
L
L
W
W
W
W
W
W
L
L
W
W

[ego]

I find a solid optimal march using the three present states - i will try to explain it - if there is still is some one intressting in trending using three present states with the same probability as dozen play.L

LW-Registy 300 Trails from today's random org.

L
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
L
L
W

L
L
L

- - -

L
L
W
W
W
W
L
L
W
W
L
L
W
L
L
W
L
W
W
W
L
W
L
W
W
W
L
L
W
L
W
W
L
L
W
W
L
W
L
L
W
L
W
W
W
W
L
W
L
W

L
L
L

- - -

W
L
W
W
W
W
L
L
W
W
W
W
W
W
L
L
W
W

The Optimal March

You play that the first present state will repeat - if a loss you play that the two present states will repeat.
That is a total of three bets.

If you lose all three bets you have three different present states.

Triggers

I have no triggers for The Optimal March - but getting three alternating has the same probability as dozen play and getting six or nine in a row also has the same probability as ordinary dozen play.

The process

2
1
2 State singles chop
2
2
1
1 L Play singles chop - loss and two states present - singles chop and series chop.
2
1 L Play series chop - loss and we play singles chop next.
2 W Singles chop and we win.
2
1
1 L Play singles chop - loss and two states present - singles chop and series chop.
1
1
1
2
2 W Play series chop and we win.
2
1
2 L Play series chop - loss and two states present - isolated singles and series chop.
2
1
1 W Series chop and we win.
1
2
1 L Play series chop - loss and two states present - isolated singles and series chop.
1
1
2
2 W Play series chop and we win.
2
1
2 L Play series chop - loss and two states present - series chop and series of singles.
1
2
2
1
1 W Play series chop and we win.
2
2 W Play series chop and we win.
1
1 W Play series chop and we win.
1
1
2
2 W Play series chop and we win.
1
2 L Play series to chop - loss and two states present - series chop and series of singles.
1
1
2
2 W Play series chop and we win.
2
2
2
2
2
1
1 W Play series chop and we win.
2
2 W Play series chop and we win.
1
2 L Play series chop - loss and two states present - isolated singles and series chop.
2
2
2
1
2 L Play series chop - loss.
2 W Play isolated singles and we win.
1
1 L Play singles - loss and two states present - series to chop and isolated singles.
2
1 L Play series chop and lose
2 L Play isolated singels and lose.

Three loses in a row with three states alternating.
If you would continue after three present alternating states you would play agains't the previos three present states - so the march would change direction.

[ego]

Closer then this you can't get when comparing towards trending like the stocks on the stock-market.
Is based upon valid probability 1 in 3 same as dozen play using different states as Markow Chains.
Also you catch all the existing imbalance based upon Marigny's work - series to chop and repeat or singles to chop and repeat with stronger STD/Ecart ...

This is a decent method and valid playing model - it is some-thing i might considering using playing Asian Handicap with sport betting with odds around 1.80 vs 2.00 ...
The question or the puzzel that i have not solved yet is what kind of triggers to use.

[malcop]

Hi Ego,

I still find this very intresting, I have created a excel sheet that records Series & Singles and I can get it to bet based on if I want a series or single to repeat or not repeat.

I just to fully understand the rules you are using to play the Win/Loss reg you posted, once I do I can make the sheet fully automatic and then it will play the way you have in your example.

The sheet already tracks singles/series for all EC at the same time, if I can get the sheet to play as you did above I will post on forum for all intrested members to use.

Thanks

malcop

[ego]

Hi Ego,

I still find this very intresting, I have created a excel sheet that records Series & Singles and I can get it to bet based on if I want a series or single to repeat or not repeat.

I just to fully understand the rules you are using to play the Win/Loss reg you posted, once I do I can make the sheet fully automatic and then it will play the way you have in your example.

The sheet already tracks singles/series for all EC at the same time, if I can get the sheet to play as you did above I will post on forum for all intrested members to use.

Thanks

malcop

Lets start from the beginning.

If the first state is singles to chop RBR you play that next state will be the same - one repeat.
RBRBR BBB R Now we would bet once that the new present state will be the same as previos one.

If a loss then we have two present states.
RBRBR BBB RR Now we have singles to chop and series chop.
Now our next two bets would be to catch one of our two previos present states.
RBRBR BBB RR R BBB We lose as we did not get a repeat of our two previos present states.
We got three alternating present states.

That is the basic of The Optimal March.
Then come the question if you would start all over again or betting agains't the previos three alternating states.

Ask me specific question and i will try to explain all as good as i can.

[malcop]

Thanks EGo,

I will see what I can do with what you have given me so far, what I am trying to do is make this rule based, and that will make it easer for me to code the sheet, as I have already said it knows how to bet for a series or single to repeat, or against them repeating, so if I can get the rules correct I will be able to get it to play as you described, then once that is done explore other ways of such as betting that a series of 2 dose not go to a series of 3 for example.

Thanks

Malcop

[Drazen]

Three loses in a row with three states alternating.
If you would continue after three present alternating states you would play agains't the previos three present states - so the march would change direction.

This is the thing i was saying to you yesterday in PM

But opposite of this, if you had 3 losses in a row, so to have all 3 states in row, you would stop and waited again to have 2 states in last three attempts? Or?

Cheers

Drazen

[ego]

This is the thing i was saying to you yesterday in PM

But opposite of this, if you had 3 losses in a row, so to have all 3 states in row, you would stop and waited again to have 2 states in last three attempts? Or?

Cheers

Drazen

Yes i have always told that any bet selection using dozen play works with even money bets using three present states.
This is how it look like using dozen.

1
2 L
2 W
3 L
2 W
1 L
1 W
1 W
2 L
1 W
2 L
3 L

[Turner]

[attachimg=1]

[speed]

ego, interesting topic..

[ego]

ego, interesting topic..

Sure is - trending based upon the correct principals with out any fuzzy or sloppy ideas.

1. If the state start to hovering you catch the train and ride it out.
2. If the state start to chop with series you catch the train and ride it out.
3. If the state start to chop with singles series you catch the train and ride it out.

That is for the repeats and catch when the STD/Ecart grow.

4. If two states start to chop for 10, 20, 30 times in a row you catch the train and ride it out.
5. If three states alternating you only have three singles loses.

PS

I test Drazen's trigger and it works out great.
Personally i would just follow the flow and attack after the states alternate once - pretty solid results.

[Drazen]

One can try play like this. Whenever you have two different states in a row you bet them to repeat. So you are playing that all 3 won't whow up in a row, and that i like to call perfect state.

Why play like this?

Because number of combinations is in our favour.


Okay we would have 6 perfect states:

123
132
213
231
312
321

And twelve other states

122
121
232
233
311
313
211
212
322
323
131
133

So you are winning on 12 patterns and losing on 6 + green round number.

But on roulette is nothing due to happen and this fails as anything else. But it is fun to play with it.

Cheers

Drazen

[malcop]

Hi Drazen,

Could you please demonstrate how you would apply your idea to Red/Black?

And are these the triggers of your that Ego reffered to?

Thanks

malcop