Author Topic: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains  (Read 10745 times)

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ego

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% Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
« on: March 02, 2012, 08:37:13 AM »

Simple introducing

Some times you do things with out knowing what you do with deeper understanding.
As in the past when i pass 800.000 trails using a 12 step fibo progression witch end up with a profit.

The selection was pretty easy.
I wait for three hovering isolated singels as selection and then bet for two series to chop or two singels falling back to back using two placed bets for each attack.

Today when i think back i do understand why it pass 800.000 trails as i was playing against one dozen not to repeat for 9 times in a row.
Note i don't recommend any one to play against any events.

Might sound strange but you can divide the even money distribution into three present state witch give you the same probability as using 1 in 3 as dozen play.

Marigny de Grilleau & Markow Chains

After reading and study Marigny and now Markow i find a solution where you can use any existing distribution based upon 50/50 probability for trading (like using stocks on the stockmarket) witch is alone is just amazing.
Any existing dozen play strategy (1 in 3) apply to "three present states" using the even money bets distribution.

% Grinder - Trading

As 1 in 3 distribution using present states with even money bets you can truly trending for dominance or pin point out winning tendency's hovering for short, medium and very long periods of time.With two placed bets after each other covering two out of three possibility's and three placed bets would prevent three shows in a row alternating - just to give a hint - witch is plus 1 zero 0 minus 1 using the line 1 1 1 to catch two present states out of three.

Comments & conclusion.

Playing patterns and use red and black as they come is useless and not effective at all when i compare towards using three present states witch allow you with high probability trading in the long run using present waves.If you want to reach a higher level of understanding i would recommend you to study Marigny de Grilleua and Markov Chains witch is a real eye opener towards a new world where there only exist tendency's of present waves.

Principals in a nutshell.

How does a dominance flow?
How do you recognise a dominance?
How perfect does a dominance need to be to be profitable?
How do you best recognise a dominance ending?

If you know these answers then you are ready to use this with the correct strategy.
Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

ego

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Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2012, 01:26:25 PM »

-

For all you butterflies who flit from flower to flower to flower in a compulsive search for nectar.


Big EZ

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Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
« Reply #2 on: March 02, 2012, 02:27:38 PM »
Ego,

I always enjoy reading your posts, I find them to be usefl in my studies..
With this information you provided I am not sure on how this would be applied. Could you perhaps help explain with some examples?
Quitting while your ahead is not the same as quitting

ego

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Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
« Reply #3 on: March 02, 2012, 04:13:15 PM »

Three present states.

First you have to understand there exist two events.
There is series and there is singels.
Two opposite events.

One serie has the value of 1. (no matter length)
One single has the value of 1.

STATE 1

If we would get one isolated single event and one single isolated serie (with out any of them chopping) - then does would cancel eachother or we could dictate there is no imbalance as the values hovering at zero point.

The value is plus 1 minus 1 = 0 plus 1 minus 1 = 0 plus 1 minus 1 = 0

Short hovering state.

R BBB

Medium hovering state.

R BBBB R BBBBBBB

Large hovering state.

R BB R BBBBB R BBBBB R BBB R BBBBB R BB R BBB R BBBBB

And is can star the other way around as RRR B RRRRR B RRRR

Note that the minimum formation for the hovering state being present is one serie and one single or one single and one serie.

This hovering state will allways end with two singels or two series to chop.

RBR or BBBRRRR

The hovering state is the same thing getting one dozen once or repeat it self - same math and probability witch i mention above as a early experiment passing 800.000 trails chasing or playing against the hovering state.

STATE 2

The second state is to series to chop as minimum for our observations.

RRBBB or BBBRRR

Witch would be plus 1 plus 1 = 2 or being a short tendency towards present imbalance towards that direction.

Short state or minimum state to verify it is present.

RRBBB or BBBRRR

Medium state would be around 3 to 5 series chopping.

RRRBBBRRBBRRRRBBB

Large state would be around 6 to 12 or more hitting 3 to 4 STD.

RRRBBRRRRRBBBBBBBBRRRBBBBBBRRBBRRRBBBBRRBBBBBRRRRBBBBRRRBBBBBRRRRBBB

Remember that each serie is one event.

STATE 3

The minimum is two singles in a row witch look like this RBR (has to be three to verify that we have a present state of two singels - the third we know nothing about and is part of the future).

The minimum present state to verify is as follows.

RBR or BRB

Medium ...

RBRBRB

Large or hitting 3 to 4 STD

RBRBRBRBRBRBRBRBRBRBR

Each Event or Each Outcome.

First we can start with observing the random flow with the present states unfolding.
If they alternating then it would be the same thing for each dozen to show once during a cycle of three trails.

RBRRBBRBB

BBRRBRRBRB

RRBRRBBRBR

This means there is no existing imbalance at all.
First the three present state have one show each - no imbalance.
And regarding the outcomes so are they the minimum formations due to series of two.

Now lets look at a real sample from random org.
2 = black
1 = red

TRNG 2012 03 02


ego

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Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
« Reply #4 on: March 02, 2012, 07:42:39 PM »

Lets assume you have one state present.
Then you can bet once for it to repeat and if it does not then you will have two present states.
All that with one singel bet.

Then if you want to continue then following the last two present state then you will hit does placing two bets and if you lose then you lost a total of three bets and you will have one show of each present state.

Now there is so many other ways to take andvantage of 1 in 3 and you can apply any dozen strategy with even money bets described above with less placed bets.

ego

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Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
« Reply #5 on: March 03, 2012, 06:55:54 PM »

It is effective and amazing

I recon i would hit plus 100 units after 1000 placed bets witch is amazing.
Everyon say you can not flat betting due the games negative expectation or that the house edge will manifest - but my chart just grow and take a step back and start to grow again.
No triggers or stop-loss just playing each event as they come following the flow.

I use the principals above with Marigny and Markov.



I will try to see how it perform using 300 trails sessions.
Then see how it perform with out triggers and stop-loss just following the flow.
I have one idea for flat betting money management and will post it later.

ego

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Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
« Reply #6 on: March 04, 2012, 09:47:12 AM »

I am exiting about 1 in 2

Above i use even money bets with "La Partage Rule" with 1.35% house edge.
The placed bets using one specific algorithm witch capture tiny waves of imbalance.
That based upon knowledge by Marigny and Markov.

Now i study this as i enjoy how the distribution unfold like a beautiful flower.
Next i will only play pure 1 i 2 to see how i do and get the strike ratio % with out the house edge effect things - the data.

I want pure data.

As i see the opportunity regarding sport-betting to be one optional market with this kind of strategy.
Also been looking into currency exchange as optional market.
I am pretty sure this knowledge can be useful for any kind of trading as long you can find two opposite components witch is 1 in 2 regarding probability.

Cheers

ego

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Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
« Reply #7 on: March 04, 2012, 12:00:51 PM »

-

New update.

It feels after 950 placed bet that it start to dive into the deep hole.
Not rapid and it might hovering around zero point do.

So around 1000 placed bets with a net gain around 55 units.
That is for sure less then Van Keelen Test witch say 1000 placed bets with a net gain around 100.

Still searching.

-




ego

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Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
« Reply #8 on: March 05, 2012, 08:48:52 AM »

-

Sequential betting strategy

As i mention above so do we have 1 in 3 using three present state's.
That means that any dozen strategy apply using even money bets with less placed bets covering same positions of probability.

I skip the idea that i test above as it not holding up to does values i am searching for at the moment.
I aim for a new state to show and bet against one state repeating it self to become two same present state after each other.

You see two singels or more you play once that you will get two series to chop or if that bet is lost you bet that the next state will hovering.
You see a serie you bet it to chop being at least two in a row or if that bet is lost you wait and observe if you get one or two singels and if one singels you bet next series to repeat or two singels or if two singels you bet next serie to chop or one single.
You see one single you bet next that two series will chop if not then you bet for two singels in a row.

There is a loop hole to profit from witch is each time a serie chop and you win your first placed bet you let it ride for more series to chop.
Each time that does not happen you are at zero point betting against any present state to repeat it self.

Each attack for each sequential betting is 3 placed bets to cover the options i mention above.
This is how a common LW Registry look like:

TRNG 2012 02 27 LW REGISTRY

W W W W W L L L
L W W L L W W W W W W W L L W W L W L W W L L W L L W W L W W W W L L W L L L
W W W W L W W L W L W W L W L W L W L L W W W W L L W W L W W L W W W W

TRNG 2012 02 28 LW REGISTRY

L L W W W W W L L W L W W W W W W W W L W W W W W L L L
L W L L L
W L L W W W W L W L W W L L W L L L
W L L L
L W L W L L W W W W W L W L W L W L L W


TRNG 2012 02 29 LW REGISTRY

W W W L W L L W W W L W W L L L
L W W W W W L L W W W L L L
L L W W L L W W L L W W L W L L W W L W W W L L W W L W W L W W L W L W L W L W W L W W L W W L W L L W W W

Next is that i am working with a new sequential betting strategy using the three present states.
Will follow up this topic with new highlights.

ego

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Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
« Reply #9 on: March 05, 2012, 01:50:23 PM »

EDIT

I should mention regarding the random walk that if you get one state to repeat twice you wait until a new present state show (new different state) before continuing with the random walk.

Big EZ

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Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
« Reply #10 on: March 05, 2012, 02:23:55 PM »
Although I am still not 100% sure that I understand what's going on here I do have some suggestions based on you W/L records that you posted. I am not sure if either of these will be useful but maybe it will, who knows.

First suggestion. If you played this with a reverse lab would I think that the profit would be more secure. It seemms there are multiple winning streaks throughout

Second.... what if you used 2 diff banks with a controlled progression for each bank. The object would be to use each bank to follow eith a W or a L repeating. It would cut down te number of placed. Bets and there would be some virtual spins involved.


ego

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Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
« Reply #11 on: March 06, 2012, 12:06:34 PM »
Although I am still not 100% sure that I understand what's going on here I do have some suggestions based on you W/L records that you posted. I am not sure if either of these will be useful but maybe it will, who knows.

First suggestion. If you played this with a reverse lab would I think that the profit would be more secure. It seemms there are multiple winning streaks throughout

Second.... what if you used 2 diff banks with a controlled progression for each bank. The object would be to use each bank to follow eith a W or a L repeating. It would cut down te number of placed. Bets and there would be some virtual spins involved.

What do you mean by reverse lab - can you be more specific and post one example.
Sure it will hold up using a slight positive progression or one that goes like a pendal in two directions.

I test some more placed bets and it does not tank - it get drawdowns and ups hovering around 30 units.


Big EZ

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Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
« Reply #12 on: March 06, 2012, 02:22:39 PM »
if you search the forum for it you will find a thread that Fripper started that has to deal with the reverse labby. I would link it here but I am posting from my phone.

ego

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Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
« Reply #13 on: March 08, 2012, 08:44:47 AM »

The final solution.

I find a way to use skip and find a way to use cycles based upon the algorithm above.
The result are amazing with short testing using 300 trails sessions.

Next i will run 1000 placed bets and aim for 100 units net gain witch is the minimum bench mark.
I would not flat betting with result that show less as i recon some one would need at least 2.5 STD to survive common fluctuation in the long run.



Raw trending peaks & pure cycle peaks.

If we ride only the peaks we will end up with pure peaks of how each cycle perform.
Is the only solution or tweak i can think of at the moment.

Just like trading daily peaks on the stock market.
Witch would mean 8 hours or 300 trails session trading using roulette.

Raw trending peaks:



And just ride does will end up with pure cycle peaks.

Pure cycle peaks:


ego

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Re: % Grinder - Trading - Marigny de Grilleua & Markow Chains
« Reply #14 on: March 09, 2012, 09:45:21 PM »

Fictive Conditional Probability

I notice that you only have to place one single bet to catch two present waves out of three.
That create a hard core loop hole or bias witch i explore.
I name it Fictive Conditional Probability because even if it give andvantage it does not eliminate the present state witch is left witch can create some hard core imbalance.

Masse Égale

Flat betting is simple math and probability.
If some one can end up plus 1 unit and it overcome the attempts doing so - then you succeed.

I test this to aim for plus 1 unit using 10 attempts doing so.
I won 30 sessions in a row or more then double my bank.

Code: [Select]
 1.  1
 2.  1
 3.  1
 4.  1
 5.  1
 6.  1
 7.  1
 8.  1
 9.  1
10.  1

11.  1
12.  1
13.  1
14.  1
15.  1
16.  1
17.  1
18.  1
19.  1
20.  1

21.  1
22.  1
23.  1
24.  1
25.  1
26.  1
27.  1
28.  1
29.  1
30.  1

Money Management Strategy - Masse Égale

Next you can pick a realistic win goal like 5 units and your bank is 10 units witch is 50% target - but you accept losses during the game following one simple algorithm using LW-Regsitry.
Lets assume your first bet wins {W} then your second bet lose {WL} then you lower your win target with 1 unit.
If you get two loses in a row you lower your win target with 2 units and keep deduct your win goal depending on how many loses you get - down swings.
This way you end up at plus 1 unit or at 0 point and accept the fluctuation.
And if you find your self in hell you lose your 10 unit bank - but with two good saftey nets witch allow you end up with profit or at zero point - that means you have to get a down swing witch dive all the way.

X 5

L 4
W 4 0
W 4 1
W 4 2
L 3 1
W 3 2
L 2 1
W 2 2



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