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37 back to basics

Started by 6th-sense, Jun 09, 02:29 PM 2018

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Irish88 and 7 Guests are viewing this topic.

The General

Quote from: Mako on Feb 05, 01:44 PM 2019
All of which may be true, agree. 

In my particular case that I mentioned, For 3 and 4, their results are their bank accounts, not sims or funny money, and I've seen live logins using video via me on the skype call, which is about as good as I can do. 

If someone is going through the trouble to manipulate video images, on skype, and they're not selling or monetizing it in any way, hey, more power to you buddy because that's next-level time-wasting... :twisted:

Mako,

I'm not accusing you of having done any of that.  I suspect that it's just because you haven't tested many spins. 

Regarding Bago's win.  His win is no less or more credible than Turbo's.    It was pointed out quite a while back by Bombus that the RS was easily manipulated.  And since there's no proof of concept behind Turbo's method, I must conclude that he manipulated the game for entertainment reasons.
Basic probability and The General are your friend.
(Now hiring minions, apply within.)

6th-sense

General..please keep Turbo argument off this thread ..this thread is not about turbo ..it’s about all three states..
And mako didn’t say they won with just repeats or anything how they did it..

Thank you

2BobBet

I have been trying to come up with a bet based on the info in this thread, but I cant seem to get it to win more than it loses

Here is how I play based on my understanding and tests of Vaddis and this

Use Ayk tracker fill the first 18 numbers

once you have the 18 numbers look for all stand alone numbers ( no repeats) with big gaps to the touching number blocks

there is usually 2 to 4  ,bet these numbers and there neighbours/pairings this is a 6 to 12 number bet

I then bet upto the  37 spin. I keep entering the numbers into the tracker and see if I need to bet anymore single standalone numbers

As I start betting if there is no hit within 4 spins I stop betting, i then wait for a hit on 1 of my numbers then start betting again.

After the first hit I do not remove any numbers ,unless they touch a bigger block of previous hits
I then double all bets  on the table, repeating the above , if there are no hits in 4 spins

If I then hit again I will put 1 chip on each number until I reach 37 spins

The last 2 stages are looking for single numbers to get a repeat

The biggest problem I have is when you get a large gap between the first hit and the next or too many single hits which are virtual wins

I believe  there is something here but I dont know HOW to get this to work

I would like to thank Sixth sense for putting this post together as its a fantastic way of looking at the game

Mako

Quote from: The General on Feb 05, 02:51 PM 2019
Mako,

I'm not accusing you of having done any of that.  I suspect that it's just because you haven't tested many spins. 

Regarding Bago's win.  His win is no less or more credible than Turbo's.    It was pointed out quite a while back by Bombus that the RS was easily manipulated.  And since there's no proof of concept behind Turbo's method, I must conclude that he manipulated the game for entertainment reasons.

Oh no, I understand for sure.  And I don't want to imply that they provided their bet selections to me, they absolutely didn't for obvious reasons.

Agree also on the RS results, to me none of that proves or disproves whatever method anyone is claiming works.  I discard it out of not knowing the control of whatever simulation the person is using.  I can only control my own simulations, using bi-directional data in sequential order from single wheels. 

It's like my lie-detector analogy.  Right now, Dr Talos, Sergio, Turbo, Winner, and a few others, would absolutely pass a lie-detector test question of "do you have a system that cannot lose over time in Roulette".

There is no question in my mind.

But that doesn't mean they do have one, at all, despite them believing they do 100% to their cores. 

They may have it, they may not, all anyone can do who wants to judge is find out their bet selection and test it with as many accurate spins as they can. 

I like the "words", and I enjoy the pitches as to "why" their systems work, but I wouldn't bet a nickel without actually understanding their bet selection and having tested it myself.

Bigbroben

Anyone can point to something that for sure happens in 37 spins.  Anyone can develop a system based on the observations.  Because of variance, it is very difficult to get the cost of a winning below or equal to payback everytime....
Life is hard, and then you die.
Mes pensées sont le dernier retranchement de ma liberté.

The General

Quote from: Bigbroben on Feb 05, 03:36 PM 2019
Anyone can point to something that for sure happens in 37 spins.  Anyone can develop a system based on the observations.  Because of variance, it is very difficult to get the cost of a winning below or equal to payback everytime....

Variance is the double edged sword that enables you to win.  It's the house edge that's your big enemy.  Overcome the house edge  and it's a different world. :thumbsup:


Below, is from the wizardofodds.com
$100 Bankroll, 1% Advantage
Bets won = 7,182,811,698 (50.4999%)
Bets lost = 7,040,599,544 (49.5001%)
Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 79,438 (83.019%)
Player went bust first = 16,249 (16.981%)
Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 174,972 (364.5 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)
$100 Bankroll, 2% Advantage
Bets won = 7,027,117,205 (51.0000%)
Bets lost = 6,751,539,769 (49.0000%)
Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 215,702 (98.099%)
Player went bust first = 4,180 (1.901%)
Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 63,775 (132.9 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)
$1,000 Bankroll, 1% Advantage
Bets won = 5,213,026,190 (50.4999%)
Bets lost = 5,109,817,544 (49.5001%)
Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 74,818 (99.0285%)
Player went bust first = 734 (0.9715%)
Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 137,208 (285.8 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)
$1,000 Bankroll, 2% Advantage
Bets won = 6,332,837,070 (50.9996%)
Bets lost = 6,084,596,671 (49.0004%)
Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 267,445 (99.9996%)
Player went bust first = 1 (0.0004%)
Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 46,428 (96.7 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour) -source wizardofodds
Basic probability and The General are your friend.
(Now hiring minions, apply within.)

Firefox

Quote from: Mako on Feb 05, 01:03 PM 2019

Firefox: If I were to tell you that a few different people in this very thread have been playing a couple different methods based on what's been explained within...and winning...for nearly a year...with their BRs getting high enough that even weeks worth of suddenly losing wouldn't erase them, wouldn't you be curious as to whether what they've derived from it is "real"?

Not saying it's anything more than a fantastic lucky streak, or that they're the 2 people out of 100 that exit the casino with 10x their BR ala the fallacy test...but am saying that it's worth examining.  :thumbsup:

Depends on how much they play in "nearly a year". Play 2 hours a night for 3 nights a week say 200 spins a week. 40 weeks a year, that's still only 8,000 spins. I'd expect a decent percentage of people to be still up after that provided their money management was good and they limit their exposure over their spins. It's only when you get till 10k, 20k, 30k trials that the law of large numbers kicks in. Your standard deviation is proportional to the square root of the number of trials and this becomes smaller with respect to the expected value as n becomes large. But even after 30,000 trials it's still possible to be up. Casinos rely on 10% of winners over shorter periods to encourage people around them to play in any case.

The concept if 1/3s and repeaters is fine when you examine data after the event but look at what 6th sense said. He hit the nail on the head. A new cycle of 37 begins on every spin.

You can take the first 12 to appear, but they are part of the last circle of 37. They've no relevance to what is going to come up on the next spin.

Even simpler take 2 tosses of a coin.

They could be TH HT HH TT. Even in this short trial the repeating sequences are equal to the sequences where each side shows up the expected number of times of once.

You can wait till one hundred heads show up in a row, but those 4 sequences are still equally likely in the next two spins as the cycle resets every spin.

Or you could wait till one head shows up and bet on heads as a repeater, but those 4 sequences are still equally likely, provided the coin is fair.

It's a bit more complicated with 37 numbers but on the very next spin, which is the only thing you can bet on, the odds are still 1/37 for each number.

You are chasing your tail trying to predict the next numbers based on the previous few, in exactly the same way you chase your tail predicting heads or tails.... no pun intended :D

Bigbroben

Quote from: The General on Feb 05, 03:56 PM 2019
Variance is the double edged sword that enables you to win.  It's the house edge that's your big enemy.  Overcome the house edge  and it's a different world. :thumbsup:


If there was very little variance, say with ECs, for example, most progressions would make it to overcome HE.  Alembert with no variance: L1 W2, L1,W2, L1, W2, L1,L1 because of zero, L1, W2 L1 W2 L1 W2...

But if variance gives you 10 losses in row then life's harder...
Life is hard, and then you die.
Mes pensées sont le dernier retranchement de ma liberté.

The General

Quote from: Bigbroben on Feb 05, 04:03 PM 2019
If there was very little variance, say with ECs, for example, most progressions would make it to overcome HE.  Alembert with no variance: L1 W2, L1,W2, L1, W2, L1,L1 because of zero, L1, W2 L1 W2 L1 W2...

But if variance gives you 10 losses in row then life's harder...

True.  It's best not to chase losses because of variance.  Up as you win is better.
Basic probability and The General are your friend.
(Now hiring minions, apply within.)

Bigbroben

Quote from: Bigbroben on Feb 05, 04:03 PM 2019
If there was very little variance, say with ECs, for example, most progressions would make it to overcome HE.  Alembert with no variance: L1 W2, L1,W2, L1, W2, L1,L1 because of zero, L1, W2 L1 W2 L1 W2...

But if variance gives you 10 losses in row then life's harder...

Shit the zero fuzzed me up and I typed too quick!  Got the wrong WL units.  Still you get the idea.
Life is hard, and then you die.
Mes pensées sont le dernier retranchement de ma liberté.

Irish88

Quote from: Bigbroben on Feb 05, 11:25 AM 2019
As the nrs are out, different blocks of different size are created.  The tuff part is to know when to play hits, when to play unhit neighbours.

As opposed to dividing the nrs in 3 dozens, maybe it could be seperated as: hits, pair-, pair+.

This is exactly right. When do you begin to bet and what exactly do you bet?  Let's  remember one thing with the tracker. It might be the most important thing along with the averages. You will never see 12 numbers in a row miss on Ayks tracker. So how do we take advantage of that? The pairs are going to expand.


Bigbroben

Quote from: Irish88 on Feb 05, 04:53 PM 2019
You will never see 12 numbers in a row miss on Ayks tracker.

Do you mean a pair to arrive?
Life is hard, and then you die.
Mes pensées sont le dernier retranchement de ma liberté.

Irish88

Say you put 37 numbers from a cycle in the tracker. You look from left to right, 0-36. In that line you will never see a gap of 12 numbers. 12 empty spaces in row. Now apply that thought to looking at the roulette table. Using the numbers that have hit, they are going to expand. The pair is a starting point.

2BobBet

This is what Im saying in my last post but unfortunately I cant make this work!

It sometimes wins sometimes you lose , there seems to be no consistency.

Irish88

Quote from: 6th-sense on Jun 10, 04:20 AM 2018
now the 1st basic test is that we know on average that 24 numbers appear in 37 spin cycle on average
usually there are 12 doubles..ie two numbers that,ll come out next to each other..could be splits
or the number above and below..


ok the 1st pic shows the first 9 numbers out..

at this 1st stage we see numbers 18/19 have come out together
we also see numbers 26/27 a split has come out...

so what do we take from this?
 
for reference nottys sheets that usually say a repeat in the main doesnt usually appear here
though it can sometimes...thats just a reference point to think of

so at this point we know a few statistics..

1..repeats will happen at somepoint from here if not already.
2..we know on average that 12 numbers won,t show..
3..we know on average of eddys sheets that empty blocks between blocks ie the 12 unhit numbers
   will be spread out across the remaing gaps that are left..you will not get 12 empty blocks
   in a row regardless if low hits 20 times in arow or high misses 20 hits 20 times in a row..
4..we also know that we have only 28 spins left in the session left to come out in profit

these are the most basic things...not really talked about with examples but ayks tracker shows you
everyting there is to know ..learn..and work out how to use it to your advantage

Vaddis grail hunters should be all over this working in 8 spin time frames and see what actually
happens through a game stage by stage

ok thats the basics

Guys I think this is the most important point in the thread. Look at points 3 and 4. How do we apply a bet to this?

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