Use Chess strategies to find the Holy Grail

[jekhb76]

Hey Rick, good to hear from you my friend.
I don't post anymore on this forum for the reason you are aware of but for you i make an exception.
will contribute later on, just want to say hi to a friend. 

cheers,
eddy

[Mako]

Ricky is back, sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeet!

Hope you're still killing it, really good to see you man.  Looking forward to hearing what you've been up to lately. 

[RFMAXX]

Hi Rick. Very interesting. A parallel may be drawn. 

[Ricky]

Ok, before starting, lets set some ground rules for this thread to avoid any misunderstandings.

1. I am not claiming to have a so called "Holy Grail" and 100% proven method to beat roulette under all situations. But this is not to say that if we put our collective minds together we may be able to define a method of play that can provide us a positive edge better than random. 

2. I use the term "Holy Grail" in more than one context in this thread which I would like to  explore. The end goal of any system is not only to win a session of roulette but not to lose your bankroll. So Bankroll Management needs to be part of any successful system. It needs to have clear goals for both taking profit and setting stops. A method of play without responsible bankroll management is useless. And a sufficient bankroll without a sound method is also useless. The two go together. Some may say that to them the HG is winning more than they lose. This is true but also how you win it should be consistent and not due to luck alone. Certainly, as in life, we can all do with a little luck to survive, but we can also control our choices to make our own luck. Look left, right then left again, before crossing the road.  Just like a bad choice can bring us bad luck, look left and not right can get you run over. 

3. The analogy of chess gives us some framework to build a method. So if we take chess as being a series of moves and counter moves with the sole objective of capturing the opponent's king in a checkmate situation then we can describe roulette in a similar manner. Checkmate in roulette is granting a profit from one cycle of our method of play. There are mechanical systems described and discounted on this forum but all have their merits and of course their weaknesses. So when we review a method we should not judge it by the mechanical process alone but look at it in terms of the next move and even the next 10 moves and its impact on our bankroll. Some moves can be the correct ones, some not so good, others are sheer stupidity. So working out which ones we should back at each spin in the cycle is what I want to explore. Just like chess, there are multiple ways to win the game, some can be quick if we take an optimal path and our opponent does not provide the optimal countermove. Some can be a grind if we take the long route and lose some  of our pieces along the way.

4. Some members have clearly articulated their method of play, others have provided riddles and puzzles, while others have not been clear on their method. I am not really interested in arguing the merits or fallacy of these as the thread will degenerate into an unproductive discussion. So to avoid this I request all to refrain from promoting or discarding any particular system. However, this thread is about finding the "Holy Grail" as I have described, taking into account how we can profit from game with the method that we choose. So to provide explanations of proper bankroll management I may bring up some examples from my own experience to demonstrate a point. I encourage you to do likewise and how your method(s) can be used in the context of building a sustainable bankroll. Personally, I play my own game and not looking to push or promote these ideas publicly. But I am always looking to improve how I can best deploy my bankroll to capitalize on situations as they arise. Just like the stockmarket presents opportunities from time to time roulette does too. But that analogy is for another discussion.

Ok hope this is all clear. Will be back to continue the discussion

cheers
Ricky.
 

[Bigbroben]

OK,

players can build a strategy.  Can we say the opponent also has one, or is our opponent ''Randomness''?

[Ricky]

OK,

players can build a strategy.  Can we say the opponent also has one, or is our opponent ''Randomness''?

Hi Bigbroben,
Correct, our oppenent is the result of the next spin which is "random".
Will map out all the analogies in my next post so we can get started. But, as we have some keen chess players here I am sure it will become obvious. So the next step will be how to use this understanding to treat roulette like a chess game.

Cheers,
Ricky

[Firefox]

Good comments on bankroll management. Even if playing for fun you will want to make your chips last.

With a small stack, small bets on higher probability chances are good. For example two six lines covers 12 numbers and may be cheaper than a bet on columns or EC depending on table limits. With an almost 1 in three chance to win, your money is bound to last longer and survive some bad luck so that you are still playing at the end of 37 spins and have a chance for your luck to turn.

I see many people just play for fun; they buy a stack and bet straight up on four or five numbers. A few spins later their stack is gone without even a hit and have to buy in again if they want to play.  They curse the game, but poor chip management was the culprit.

Of course, if a few six lines hit early, you build your stack and can afford a couple of straight up bets or splits to go for a big win.

It's like looking after your material in a game of chess. If you are behind, don't swap it all off or blunder it away. You'll be left with nothing and be unable to fight on.

[Ricky]

The Chess Pieces of Roulette
------------------------------------------
The various Payouts in roulette can be compared to the different abilities/powers of each chess Piece
1. Queen can move in all directions to any location on the board in any one move and can capture any of our opponent's pieces in any location where there is a direct path. But there is only one Queen under normal conditions.
    The Straight Bet pays 35:1 and grants us the largest profit on any one spin. As such it can provide us the most optimal path to "checkmate" but can also be costly if not used in conjunction with our other pieces. Each Straight bet is on one  number.

2. Rook/Bishop have similar powers as the Queen but can only move in a straight line either straight or diagonal respectively.
    The Split Bet is the next powerful roulette piece paying 17:1. Like the Straight Bet they too can provide us reasonable path to victory overcoming any short term losses from losing moves.  Each Split bet covers two numbers like the number of Rooks/Bishops. They too need to be used with caution as to not result in a negative outcome from over use.

3. Knight has a limited move on the chess board in an L shape pattern. It can be strategically placed to take advantage of these abilities and overpower the opponents exposed pieces.
The Double Street/Corner/Street bets have limited powers to overcome the house edge paying 5:1,8:1,11:1 respectively but used wisely can provide support to the more powerful pieces.

4. The Pawns are the weakest pieces and are used to block the opponent's moves and protect the more powerful pieces from getting captured.
The outside bets are the weakest bets in roulette and used alone can make profiting from the game a break even or long term loser. Here we have Doz/Columns paying 2:1 and EC paying 1:1. But they have a place when looking to overcome the odds or limiting the losses in some system designs. Some examples and ideas will be explained later on.

5. Last but not Least we have the King, the prize of all chess players to declare checkmate in a battle for the kingdom.
Here the correctly sized Bankroll to overcome the odds is your King and the Casino's money is the opponent's King. We are in an endless battle to take each other's King. It's like a battle between David and Galliath.

These are my analogies. Feel free to correct my thinking and add your own before we start looking at strategies.

Cheers,
Ricky

[Bigbroben]

So are you heading towards ''hedging'' with all those different pieces powers?

[Firefox]

The knight and bishop are more or less equal. Maybe modern thinking has bishops at slightly more than the knight but it depends on the position.

Accordingly I may have the rook on splits and streets, and the minor pieces on corners and six lines.  Maybe bishop on corners and knight on six line if you like the bishop better 

PS This also works well, because splits and streets are horizontal lines, corners reflect the diagonal attack, and six lines contain the L shape of the knight.

[Ricky]

Of course, if a few six lines hit early, you build your stack and can afford a couple of straight up bets or splits to go for a big win.

It's like looking after your material in a game of chess. If you are behind, don't swap it all off or blunder it away. You'll be left with nothing and be unable to fight on.

You bring up some good points that is the purpose of this thread. How to best use your bankroll so as not to squander it to the Casino. As a quick example, the other day I was 400 down playing a system that got into a bad losing streak. I had to declare defeat for that session and regrouped and came back with a different strategy more suited to what numbers wer coming out. As I was sufficiently sized to take such a loss I had enough bankroll to apply my other strategy and was able to recoup my previous session loss and eck out a small profit.

The other point you make is about building a long term stack (bankroll). I call this my Fighting Fund which I will expand on later. Its the fund that you leave at home like your cash account when trading and only draw on a small percentage of it when you play for real money. Your goal is always to take more bankroll  home that you started with and add to your Fighting Fund. Eventually, your fund will be sufficiently sized to allow you to increase your base bets. 

More about Bankroll Management to come in future posts. Also looking forward to your ideas on how you manage your bankroll if playing for real money. I've learnt a bit from several members already so will be good to discuss how you can grow say $200 or evern $10 into say $25,000 over time. We all want to do this but do not have a clear path how to proceed. It gets too overwhelming looking at $10 and visualizing how this can grow to $25K using roulette. This is part of the True Holy Grail. Like its been said, if you do not know how to manage your bankroll having the HG stare straight at you will do you no good as you will not know how to apply it.

Cheers,
Ricky

[Ricky]

So are you heading towards ''hedging'' with all those different pieces powers?

As I said, not looking to promote any method of play but no matter which method you choose it can be played with multiple bet types and one can be used in combination with another. Two of the same bet type can be used eg 2 dozens or two or more Streets.

Then there is the advantage of overlapping bets to get multiple payouts like straight/split combination

I have tried a few combinations with some good success so look forward to sharing ideas that could be used to build a robust system or method that will have some merit in playing one or more moves of our chess pieces.

"hedging" is a good term and yes the different bet types can be used intelligently to hedge against the opponent's next move.

Cheers,
Ricky

[Ricky]

Thanks Firefox for your feedback. This all makes sense and I have updated my analogy to take into account your input

The Chess Pieces of Roulette
------------------------------------------
The various Payouts in roulette can be compared to the different abilities/powers of each chess Piece
1. Queen can move in all directions to any location on the board in any one move and can capture any of our opponent's pieces in any location where there is a direct path. But there is only one Queen under normal conditions.
   The Straight Bet pays 35:1 and grants us the largest profit on any one spin. As such it can provide us the most optimal path to "checkmate" but can also be costly if not used in conjunction with our other pieces. Each Straight bet is on one  number.

2. Rook have similar powers as the Queen but can only move in a straight line. On their own they could over power the King but are best used with the Queen.
   The Split/Street Bets are the next two powerful roulette piece paying 17:1 and 11:1 respectively. Like the Straight Bet they too can provide us reasonable path to victory overcoming any short term losses from losing moves.  Each Split bet covers two numbers like the number of Rooks. They too need to be used with caution as to not result in a negative outcome from over use. Like the rook both splits and streets cover two or three horizontal or vertical numbers.

3. Bishop Maybe modern thinking has bishops at slightly more than the knight but it depends on the position.
   The Corner bets has limited powers to overcome the house edge paying 8:1. Similar to the movement of the Bishop, a Corner bet is made from the four diagonal numbers.

4. Knight has a limited move on the chess board in an L shape pattern. It can be strategically placed to take advantage of these abilities and overpower the opponents exposed pieces.
   The Double Street has limited powers to overcome the house edge paying 5:1 but used wisely can provide support to the more powerful pieces. From a move perspective the 6 numbers of DS can be viewed like the L shape of the Knights move.

5. The Pawns are the weakest pieces and are used to block the opponent's moves and protect the more powerful pieces from getting captured.
The outside bets are the weakest bets in roulette and used alone can make profiting from the game a break even or long term loser. Here we have Doz/Columns paying 2:1 and EC paying 1:1. But they have a place when looking to overcome the odds or limiting the losses in some system designs. Some examples and ideas will be explained later on.

6. Last but not Least we have the King, the prize of all chess players to declare checkmate in a battle for the kingdom.
Here the correctly sized Bankroll to overcome the odds is your King and the Casino's money is the opponent's King. We are in an endless battle to take each other's King. It's like a battle between David and Galliath.

[Firefox]

I also look upon corners and splits as double atracks and family forks on sectors.

When playing visual ballistics or dealers signature after ball release you need to get bets down quickly after you have clocked the rotor speed, decided it is in range, and worked out which sector the ball will land in.

For example the corner bet 28,29,31,32 and the splits 0,3 and 9,12 cover 8 numbers in a 13 number sector from 31 to 32. You can place these in two movements, easily within a couple if seconds.

You can also call neighbours to the dealer,  but I don't like doing this. Wheel watching, late bets, calling neighbours bets and winning is suspicious. Placing quite bets on corners and lines is much more covert.

[Ricky]

I also look upon corners and splits as double atracks and family forks on sectors.

When playing visual ballistics or dealers signature after ball release you need to get bets down quickly after you have clocked the rotor speed, decided it is in range, and worked out which sector the ball will land in.

For example the corner bet 28,29,31,32 and the splits 0,3 and 9,12 cover 8 numbers in a 13 number sector from 31 to 32. You can place these in two movements, easily within a couple if seconds.

You can also call neighbours to the dealer,  but I don't like doing this. Wheel watching, late bets, calling neighbours bets and winning is suspicious. Placing quite bets on corners and lines is much more covert.

Thanks for sharing this quick sector move. I’m very interested in VB concepts and always looking for ways to cover sectors. If you have more time to lay your bets you can cover 18 numbers in that sector with 12 chips assuming you place 2 chips on the corner bet
The total bet would be
Corner 28,29,31,32
Splits 0:3 1:4 9:12 14:15 19:20
Straights 22 18 7 35 26
That’s just under 50% of board
But if you want to be more accurate you can drop off some splits to increase payout
Cheers
Ricky