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Use Chess strategies to find the Holy Grail

Started by Ricky, Feb 23, 03:02 AM 2019

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Ricky

Quote from: Firefox on Feb 26, 08:48 PM 2019VB Advantage play gives me 5% edge
Hi Firefox,
thanks for your detailed description how you use VB to get an edge. Although this thread is heading towards building a robust system for those who like system play, I am quite intrigued at how you go about the process. Regardless of how we select our bets, there is still common ground we can explore. Mainly no system or method is any good without managing a bankroll and being properly sized to grow it using your method at the table. So I would be interested in how you size your bets and what process you go through to increase them.

The other day I watched a video showing a guy who turned 17 euro into 1500 using similar sector betting although he was not usung VB but playing airball and claims to know the algorithm that it uses to choose a sector of the wheel.

When you identify where you think the ball will land how do you go about placing your bets?  Do you split the wheel into sectors of certain number of pockets?

Cheers,
Ricky

Firefox

Is the guy you are referring to called Karl, logarithm roulette on You Tube? If so I would be wary of him. He uses a positive progression to multiply capital. As we all know, positive progressions lose steadily and then hit the odd spectacular win. Karl is suspected of just posting the winning videos. Although he uses neighbours and sectors to place bets quickly he bets randomly but he would say they are chosen "logarithmically". Now having posted all winning videos he is proposing to charge 500 EUR for his system. People can make up their own minds!

I work using the black numbers only. The output of my predicting is one of the 18 black numbers on the wheel. For each black number I know the splits, streets and corners that pepper the area that number is in.

For example if my prediction is 8, the split  bets I would use are 5-8  8-11 10-11 23-24  24-27 27-30   &  30-33.

I probably won't have time to place all these depending on where I am standing but I will aim to cover 5 or 6 numbers in that area. Although my prediction is a black number splits like 27-30 cover red numbers. I'm not fussy about black or red, so long as they have  better probability of winning than normal, but I use black numbers to predict as white on black is easier to for me to see when the wheel is moving at  speed.

Ricky

Quote from: Firefox on Feb 27, 09:52 AM 2019
Is the guy you are referring to called Karl, logarithm roulette on You Tube? If so I would be wary of him. He uses a positive progression to multiply capital. As we all know, positive progressions lose steadily and then hit the odd spectacular win. Karl is suspected of just posting the winning videos. Although he uses neighbours and sectors to place bets quickly he bets randomly but he would say they are chosen "logarithmically". Now having posted all winning videos he is proposing to charge 500 EUR for his system. People can make up their own minds!

I work using the black numbers only. The output of my predicting is one of the 18 black numbers on the wheel. For each black number I know the splits, streets and corners that pepper the area that number is in.

For example if my prediction is 8, the split  bets I would use are 5-8  8-11 10-11 23-24  24-27 27-30   &  30-33.

I probably won't have time to place all these depending on where I am standing but I will aim to cover 5 or 6 numbers in that area. Although my prediction is a black number splits like 27-30 cover red numbers. I'm not fussy about black or red, so long as they have  better probability of winning than normal, but I use black numbers to predict as white on black is easier to for me to see when the wheel is moving at  speed.
Yes that’s the guy. I knew he was trying to sell his approach. You are right he seemed to randomly up his bets around the sectors he identified. The did not seem to be any structure around it so did suspect he was hoping for a big hit. I guess if you start with 17 euro you can have many goes to get to 1500 and fail with many of them.

Again thanks for sharing your approach on how you place your bets. This goes to our money management to exploit our advantage. I think using splits as you do can be incorporated into system play when choosing a number say to repeat we don’t just cover the number we can add splits and corners to all our repeats thus limiting random from avoiding our bets

Cheers
Ricky

Firefox

Bear in mind two chips on a split is the same thing as two straight up as is three on a street or four on a corner. But I use the splits etc to place bets quickly or disguise that I am playing a sector. If you have the time and resources you can bet straight up, but the min bet on a multiple chance may be attractive if money is tight.

Karl has quite a following now on YT and he is playing them along. Many of his fans don't seem to understand what he is doing. Newcomers usually play flat bets or negative progressions like martingale or D'Alambert, so his win pattern is something wonderous to them!

Ricky

Quote from: Firefox on Feb 27, 04:09 PM 2019
Bear in mind two chips on a split is the same thing as two straight up as is three on a street or four on a corner.
Yes and I want to explore ways we can use these bets as  hedge bets to cover the wheel as part of an over strategy. But first I want to explore the first method.

Ok, Hope you all had a chance to review the graph and the bets I made. As you can see from the peaks and troughs it had a good run and bad run based on my defined strategy. This shows that you cannot use a mechanical system in isolation of your opponents counter moves. So we need to be able to react to the negative expectation in time to protect any profits gained.

The example I am about to share is by no means a HG, nor do I claim it to be my preferred method of betting. It is one of many strategies I deploy from time to time depending on what the dealer is spinning. As we will explore there are pros and cons to betting this way. And I look forward to your feedback if you were deploying a similar strategy what you would do in such circumstances where you are winning as well as where you are losing with this method.

As I mentioned, I used two strategies in the example which were  inspired by two posters in this forum and others. I combined them into a method to provide me an increasing bet size. The strategies are:

Sit down at the table and start recording spins until you get a repeat of a number then start deploying below strategies

Strategy 1. Looking for a repeat in 38 spins flat betting with no increasing bets as uniques fall. When a number repeats backtrack to all uniques that occurred before the repeat and place 1 unit on them.

Strategy 2. For each repeat I keep it and add 1 unit each time it hits. For a more agressive play you may wish to use a 1-3-9 or 1-5-25 progression

If I get a hit of a  repeat from Strategy 2 and it is not part of the current sequence of uniques in Strategy 1 I keep all numbers and continue betting.

Hope this makes sense. You can refer to the csv file I shared for the examples. but here is the first couple of bets from the file. You can see with 29 there was a back to back win and we won 72 units because of the positive progression.


I will let you review in details the strategy and then we can discuss the pros and cons and how we can add rules to improve it. As this is a chess strategies thread I am looking for ideas where we can exploit the opponents current weakness and defend agains his strengths.

More to come.

Cheers,
Ricky

Mako

Excellent Ricky, just this basic form is better than 99% of systems out there because it focuses on repeats within a fixed timespan.  I would bet that it does well over time depending on if the player has the BR to use an aggressive positive progression. 

I don't have anything to add on the chess side, other than perhaps one of the parachute type recovery progressions can be considered "castling" for obvious reasons.  :twisted:

Good post, will sit down and play with this next week when time permits.

Karl226m

Quote from: Firefox on Feb 27, 09:52 AM 2019
. Now having posted all winning videos he is proposing to charge 500 EUR for his system. People can make up their own minds!
Hi there!
I just want to clarify quick something: my system never was the price 500â,¬!! Why you inform wrong the mass?!?? Show me where I said is 500â,¬ ???
I start selling my system with 30â,¬ down payment and I also said after the winnings the players send me the rest from 470â,¬.  Since a while ago I changed to 50â,¬ the down payment. So please don’t mess up the informations.

Bigbroben

Ricky,

you have compared our pieces to different bets.  How would you describe the opponent's pieces?  How to you play to take/neutralize the opponent's ''queen'', to continue with the analogy?
Life is hard, and then you die.
Mes pensées sont le dernier retranchement de ma liberté.

Firefox

Quote from: Bigbroben on Mar 22, 01:48 PM 2019
Ricky,

you have compared our pieces to different bets.  How would you describe the opponent's pieces?  How to you play to take/neutralize the opponent's ''queen'', to continue with the analogy?

See first few pages.

Queen - Straight up
Rook - Cheval, Street
Bishop - Cormer
Knight - Six line

It doesn't quite work. Although the Queen is the most powerful, it's also the bet which is easiest taken!

Ricky

Quote from: Mako on Mar 03, 01:37 PM 2019
Excellent Ricky, just this basic form is better than 99% of systems out there because it focuses on repeats within a fixed timespan.  I would bet that it does well over time depending on if the player has the BR to use an aggressive positive progression. 

I don't have anything to add on the chess side, other than perhaps one of the parachute type recovery progressions can be considered "castling" for obvious reasons.  :twisted:

Good post, will sit down and play with this next week when time permits.
Hi Mako,
thanks for your response. Its been a while since I last posted and wanted to ponder the topic a bit before continuing. I also wanted to determine who else was interested in the concept. Starting to get some responses so win continue to discuss this topic in coming days. I have been playing this strategy for the last month to determine where the weaknesses are and it definitely is in need of some strict rules to limit any downturn from the spin from hell which will eat away at your bankroll and profits.

More to come

Ricky

Ricky

Quote from: Bigbroben on Mar 22, 01:48 PM 2019
Ricky,

you have compared our pieces to different bets.  How would you describe the opponent's pieces?  How to you play to take/neutralize the opponent's ''queen'', to continue with the analogy?
Hi Bigbroben,
Understanding the opponents pieces is an important part of the game. You need to know your adversary to have a chance at winning the battle let alone the war.
I would not equate chess pieces to your roulette opponent but would define the opponent's move as the random result of the bet. So if you have placed your pieces down, the opponent will randomly choose a location on the wheel to counter your move. The result will be he will either capture your losing pieces or will have to pay you out on your winning pieces at a rate equal to the payout.

Once we have defined our pieces we will use in our strategy, the next step is to determine our next move based on the result of the last spin.

More to come.

Cheers,
Ricky

Taotie

IMO, this chess thing only gonna work if you use different complete strategies for each chess piece.

bigmoney

GIDDY UP N GO GO

Ricky

Quote from: bigmoney on Jul 04, 07:03 AM 2019
Will read this on the weekend ....
Thanks bigmoney for your interest in reviving this thread. I will add some more thoughts soon but let me just point out that there is no real HG here. The solution does not exist. What I am discussing here are principles and ideas to gain an advantage over luck alone.

For those that are looking for the solution that works like an ATM machine with 100% guarantees of success need not read further.

Cheers
Ricky

The General

Hedging in a negative expectation game is silly.  ::)
Basic probability and The General are your friend.
(Now hiring minions, apply within.)

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