P.A :PREACHING about HG!

[thelaw]

atlantis is a good guy

he is trying to respect P.A.

not that I agree with that, and for the most part I agree with you, but atlantis is good

This might be true, but he's playing PA's game now, so he must accept responsibility for his statements.

Will he just become another Winkel?

[MrJ]

My show is coming on soon (Below Deck). You all can laugh, not many watch it but I find it funny as heck. Its on Bravo. Not really a manly show, I know (lol).

Ken

[doola]

This might be true, but he's playing PA's game now, so he must accept responsibility for his statements.

Will he just become another Winkel?

Just because you are too lazy or not smart enough to find the answer yourself does not give you the right to make accusations.  This thread is a goldmine and personally I love the fact that PA has posted all he has.  I hope no one posts a full method here.  Lazy people should never benefit from the hard work of others.

Instead of posting criticism all the time get off your ass and work it out.

[RouletteGhost]

Here you go doola

Go have a ball

link:://brainden.com/forum/

P.A. youd make moderator in no time there

[P.A]

Ladies, and Gentlemen.

Her a short preach about testing system...

INSTEAD of testing your system,

for 1000, or tens of thousands, or millions, or billions, or trillion spins..

try to, see, to look hard,  to identify, to test and REALLY understand what is the

WORST 'spin sequence' that can ruin your system...

That caused u to lose your BR!

I think, looking for the "cause", that destroy your system, or the "special-variance" that could quickly depleted your BR, is more appropriate than testing for million spins.


Newbies may not understand what I mean here,  but do some research...
Thanks.

[RouletteGhost]

Would have been cooler if you started in the blog section rather than the for sale section. Would have made more sense.

You'd have this cool blog preaching all of this with all your tips

I say give PA a blog thread!!

[doola]

Here you go doola

Go have a ball

link:://brainden.com/forum/

P.A. youd make moderator in no time there

Are you a member RG? 

[RouletteGhost]

Are you a member RG? 

No they booted me. Something about me not having a tolerance for hints. Bastards they were

[P.A]

Ladies, and Gentlemen,

Here a  preach, that , please listen attentively.
Expert members will understand , but newbies still needs some researching, and deep understanding of roulette.
=================

I believed a few member here already line out a few,
systems that have...

1]STABLE bet selection that always win, or rather LOSE at AROUND..."H. edge."=-2.7%

2]Mated to a mild progression.

3]Have sort of 'VARIANCE-avoidance' strategy.

4]Cut lose ...parameter.
=========================


Now , if u test your system, say, for example,

for 100spins/set,

and for a few tens , or hundreds of set.


U may notice when u look at the results,

that among the sets,
there will be a few cut loss, or 'Variance' that seems impossible to beat , and need to cut loss.

====================
Now, if u line up your testing,
[of the continuous testing of course.]

U will see something like this.

1st.set=profitable
2nd.set=profitable
so on..set=profitable
..set=profitable
..set=profitable
..set=profitable
..set=LOSE!
..set=profitable
..set=profitable
..set=profitable
..set=profitable
..set=profitable
..set=profitable
..set=profitable
..set=LOSE!
..set=profitable
..set=profitable
..set=profitable
..set=profitable
..set=profitable
..set=profitable
..set=profitable
..set=profitable
..set=profitable
..set=LOSE!
..set=profitable
..set=profitable
above just an OVERSIMPLIFIED example, but u see the concept


U will see that, among the profitable sets, there are a few unavoidable "lose!" sets.

So one of the VARIANCE avoidance is, u see, if your sets, seldom, have 'BACK to BACK', "lose".

Then u can start bet when a set has lose.
hoping that 'BACK TO BACK' wont happen.

But even if it happened, then u could offset with another few winning sets, after "betting-after-a-lose-set"
=========
eample.
1st.set=profitable=NO BET
2nd.set=profitable=NO BET
so on..set=profitable=NO BET
..set=profitable=NO BET
..set=profitable=NO BET
..set=profitable=NO BET
..set=LOSE!======TRIGGER!
..set=profitable=WIN the SET!
..set=profitable=NO BET
..set=profitable=NO BET
..set=profitable=NO BET
..set=profitable=NO BET
..set=profitable=NO BET
..set=profitable=NO BET
..set=LOSE!=====TRIGGER!
..set=profitable=Win the SET!
..set=profitable=NO BET
..set=profitable=NO BET
..set=profitable=NO BET
..set=profitable=NO BET
..set=profitable=NO BET
..set=profitable=NO BET
..set=profitable=NO BET
..set=profitable=NO BET
..set=LOSE!=====TRIGGER!
..set=profitable=win the set!
..set=profitable
..set=LOSE!=====TRIGGER!
..set=LOSE!=====LOSE THIS SET!
..set=profitable=NO BET.
and so on..

U get the idea...





=============================
This is not ONE of the BEST,
=========================
but at least u now slowly understand the COMPLEXITY of this 'VARIANCE' subject, which is difficult to understand yet very easy to implemented..

Now a few of members here will "AHA, EUREKA, or YES!"
because this idea, will give birth to another ideas...YOUR own ideas...
==================================

[Steve]

Any working system revolves around bet selection (method of prediction).

Everything else is secondary, including stop-loss, money management, progression etc.

It is impossible for a system to work without effective bet selection. There's no way around it. Anyone who understands why forgets about progression, and focuses on increasing accuracy of predictions. Most people dont understand why it's absolute certainty.

[P.A]

Below a preaching for NEWBIES only.
For I see some newbies still scrathing their heads...
[Expert will yawn wide, and find this repetitive, thus may skip this...Thanks.]

Ladies , and Gentlemen.

Bet selection.
The MATH Boys, had arguing and shriek their lung out, telling the world , that there will be IMPOSSIBLE for a bet selection, to surpass, or superior than the HOUSE EDGE!
and all selection, will eventually, lose-2.7%!
=============================

And I tell u...
They are absolutely RIGHT!

Please dont search for a bet selection,
that will surpass the -2.7%, of roulette.

U will NEVER find one! NEVER!

Roulette's 666, [is a HG, for the casino], MATH wise...!!!
----------------------

If we CANT have a superior, then, what we look for?

Try to look , for a selection, that LOSE constanly, accordingly to the EDGE, of -2.7%...

["WHAT?!!!" U shake your head in disbelieve..."Everyone looking for something..superior, and then this preacher, tell us to look for ..'CONSTANT LOSER'!?]


Look for a bet selection, that CONSTANTLY and CONSISTENTLY lose -2.7%...

"Doesnt ALL bet selection, will -2.7% then?"
U may quipped.

Yes, but not all swing equal among the unequal!

Most of the Bet selection, will SWING WIDELY.
for example, if u simply, choose to bet one EC,

[ BLACK, or RED, or EVEN, or ODD, or HIGH, or LOW...(bet only 1unit, no progression, bet all spins)]

Say u bet RED,
U will elated when u win , say +15units...
but, as time goesss by, u will soon,
lose -15...and this will happen many time, till the effect of -2.7, caused u to lose your banroll.
[Math wise u will lose 3units in 111spins.]

==============
so we must look for a Bet selection, that will not swing wide, that always wins, or rather lose, around -2.7%..that the math boys, can dispute.!

After u found that Bet selection, now , u mated it with a very MILD progression.
Why very mild progression...?

Since, the bet selection, will not SWING wide, a mild progression, will win, whenever the win/lose ratio,..near breakeven!

[The GLC, whom I respected greatly, has many mild progression, in his 3000+ posting!
Thanks GLC...]

No progression will win, if the bet selection SWING widely!
The best example is Martingale..u win, and win, win, and then, when Marty swing once, you
are broke!

Agressive progression, will only COMPOUNDING the SWINGING flaw!

And now u understand why people, scratching their heads, why they won, initially, and then, one swoop, they lose their earlier winning plus their bankroll?!

Because, of SWINGING bet selection...or more aptly, VARIANCE!

Variance, in simple example, say, only 2, or 3 wins, in next 20spins!!! And that will happen many time!!!
---------------------
Say, if u found a bet selection, EC, and after a million SET test, [of say,100sins/set], that always have constant around -2.7%,and worst win/lose ratio, of 40%...

And now u are very confident, that the next 100spins, will have at LEAST 40% wins,

then how are u going to bet?

What progression, will u applied ?

How are u going to avoid Variance, if and when it comes,

and when to cut loss?
When the expected catastrophic losses happen?

Think hard, and do some research.
[please dont PM me, for easy answer.
U need some brain raking research, so u will understand and "AHA, EUREKA, or HAHAHA!"]
==========================

ps:I AM NOT, IN  ANYWAY, AFFILIATE WITH ANYONE HERE..OR ELSEWHERE..THANKS.

[Chrisbis]

@P.A.
Game, Set, and Match Sir 

Fully with you now......(Penny dropped) 

Variance Avoidance.........Tick. (basically....its do your research before you bet!)

[Steve]

Please dont search for a bet selection,
that will surpass the -2.7%, of roulette.

U will NEVER find one! NEVER!

Actually there are many methods of bet selection that overcome the house edge.

Try to look , for a selection, that LOSE constanly, accordingly to the EDGE, of -2.7%...

Thats easy to do.

so we must look for a Bet selection, that will not swing wide, that always wins, or rather lose, around -2.7%..that the math boys, can dispute.!

What you are saying is combinations of bets have a connection. But the fact is each bet is independent.

And you are saying to use a mild progression. Mild or not, progression is progression. And progression is merely different size bets on different spins. Nothing more. If you don't first have accurate bet selection, it makes no difference besides varying the rate at which you lose.

And now u are very confident, that the next 100spins, will have at LEAST 40% wins,

This is like saying wins are "due", but nothing is ever "due". If you have 100 reds in a row, the odds of red spinning next are still less than 50/50.

Unfortunately I cant find any hint or clue of substance. If you are going to help people, help them without riddles.

If you want to help people but dont want undeserving people to have your secret, then sell the system for a reasonable price. But protect the secret by creating software to host on a server with hidden algorithms, so people can use it without knowing the secrets.

But what you are giving is vague information that makes people run in circles. And parts that are even remotely clear appear to be typical gambler's fallacy.

[doola]

Unfortunately I cant find any hint or clue of substance.

They are there.  You have to look hard. For me this has been one of the best threads on the site for a while. I am sure others will agree.

[Steve]

Variance is volatility. From your clues, here's what I think you mean:

Bet on numerous ECs at the same time. Then use a mild progression so that you don't blow your bankroll too soon. On ECs that lose, increase your bet (progression). Lower bets on ECs that win. And eventually, there will be a balance that occurs.

This wont work at all because:

1. What you are doing is a bunch of different bets that have no connection at all.

2. Eventually yes the balance will occur in the long term. But even when you win, you still lose the 2.7%. So balance or not, you still lose.

It's like betting on almost every horse in a race. Even if you win, you are still going to lose. Then if you lose, try again on the next race but increase your bets. This is back to martingale. But then imagine doing careful research on the horses to predict the winner. That's what advantage play is.