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Bebediktus3

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Joy can you solve this old task :)? It will open your eyes
It is a very old task. Two players decided to play dice game . They both throw dice and one wait dor sequence 6-6-6 , but another wait for exactly 4-5-6.
They do throws in order who will collect his sequence first - win.
Who will win ? Who have biger chances to win :) ?
Not try to beat the game, much easier to beat the wheel...
Some peoples very not like, when I say how to win, or why they can't win.

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Joe

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But if we wait for concrete sequence so after 7, 0, 16, here you must choose which number you wait for 34 or 16?
What you wrote are two different sequences but 5,5,5,5,5,5 are one sequence.
You cant compare the probability of one of two sequences with concrete one sequence.

But I'm not saying you should wait for any partial sequence and that the probability of the next number will be different from if you had chosen a difference sequence. Of course the probability of the next number is always 1/37.

But if you are considering only the numbers of repeats (and not the order they come in), the sequences don't have the same probability even though they have the same length.

It's easier to see this if you think about the even chances.

Probability of 2 reds in 6 spins is 23.4%
probability of 6 reds in 6 spins is 1.56%

I'm not saying that knowing this gives you any advantage.  ;)
The key to successful speculation is paying less for something than its value. Roulette systems are poor value because all bets are worth less than what you pay for them.

Bebediktus3

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But I'm not saying you should wait for any partial sequence
if we want to win on roulette we must bet on number( numbers ) which will hits concrete in this spin not later not earlier :)
Solve  task  which i wrote, I usually gave it to my pupils :)
Not try to beat the game, much easier to beat the wheel...
Some peoples very not like, when I say how to win, or why they can't win.

Bebediktus3

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But if you are considering only the numbers of repeats (and not the order they come in),
For wining repeats not important - important order. I say - try to solve this task if you do not know it. Really it shows about what you arguing
Not try to beat the game, much easier to beat the wheel...
Some peoples very not like, when I say how to win, or why they can't win.

*

Joe

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Of course, because the rolls are independent, no player has the advantage over the other. 4-5-6 has the same probability as 6-6-6 because you're waiting for a specific sequence (permutation), but that's not what I'm arguing. Like I said, both answers are right when viewed from different perspectives.

Do you deny that

Probability of 2 reds in 6 spins is 23.4% and probability of 6 reds in 6 spins is 1.56% ?
The key to successful speculation is paying less for something than its value. Roulette systems are poor value because all bets are worth less than what you pay for them.

Bebediktus3

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4-5-6 has the same probability as 6-6-6 because you're waiting for a specific sequence (permutation)
So you say that these two players have equal chances to win ? This way you are absolutely not right.
Do you deny that

Probability of 2 reds in 6 spins is 23.4% and probability of 6 reds in 6 spins is 1.56% ?
To calculate such simples cases can everybody, but to win - far not every !
I can't catch what is a hint about which you talk? I always talk about winings - other me not interest :)

I gave you task and looks that you cant it solve, but the task is super simply only you must think like player :)
Not try to beat the game, much easier to beat the wheel...
Some peoples very not like, when I say how to win, or why they can't win.

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Joe

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Here's another way of thinking about it. Think about the OP again. If the odds of 8,8,8,8,8,8 were the same in every respect as Steve's example of 4,32,0,18,16,22, then nobody could distinguish a biased wheel from a fair one!

Because if every sequence of the same length had the same probability, then a sequence of 1000 #8's would be just as likely as a 'normal' sequence. Because that's an absurd scenario, it can't be true that the odds are the same.
The key to successful speculation is paying less for something than its value. Roulette systems are poor value because all bets are worth less than what you pay for them.

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Joe

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So you say that these two players have equal chances to win ? This way you are absolutely not right.

Ok, show us the maths which proves it's not right.
The key to successful speculation is paying less for something than its value. Roulette systems are poor value because all bets are worth less than what you pay for them.

Bebediktus3

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Ok, show us the maths which proves it's not right.
I first say that it is not right, later I will explain and will give math. The task is maybe 6th class level, but must think as player... :) Try , without google help :)
Not try to beat the game, much easier to beat the wheel...
Some peoples very not like, when I say how to win, or why they can't win.

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Steve

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It comes down to this. It's quite simple:

On the NEXT spin, there's a 1 in 37 chance of any specific number winning.

This is the fundamental fact about roulette everyone must keep in mind.

The only exception is if you change the odds, like with AP.


It means all the roundabout elaborate systems are no better than random bets. And all the elaborate betting progressions are equally worthless.

Bebediktus3

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Try all to solve this task, if not know the answer . You will show how good are you in games because this task has the nearest relationship with games :).
Not try to beat the game, much easier to beat the wheel...
Some peoples very not like, when I say how to win, or why they can't win.

Bebediktus3

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Look in google for a solution can everybody lets try to solve the task with own head :)
Not try to beat the game, much easier to beat the wheel...
Some peoples very not like, when I say how to win, or why they can't win.

*

Steve

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Bebediktus3

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It's not more complicated than i already said. The problem is deluded perception.
Something is related to this, but all task has a very simple and correct explanation. So in the task are some hint but explanations are very correct .
But this task is one of the best math tasks that are related to gambling.  Simply say which player will win in the long run...
Task, as I said, is about 6th class level maybe even lower :)
Not try to beat the game, much easier to beat the wheel...
Some peoples very not like, when I say how to win, or why they can't win.

*

The General

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Joy can you solve this old task :)? It will open your eyes
It is a very old task. Two players decided to play dice game . They both throw dice and one wait dor sequence 6-6-6 , but another wait for exactly 4-5-6.
They do throws in order who will collect his sequence first - win.
Who will win ? Who have biger chances to win :) ?

I assume when you say a dice game that you're referring to the game of craps. 

 There are more ways for the dice to add up to six than there are for the dice to add up to four. and there are more ways for the dice to add up to six than there are for the dice to add up to five.    The player that has to roll 6-6-6 will likely win first.

Basic probability and The General are your friend.
(Now hiring minions, apply within.)


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